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TBILISI HELPS DEFEND YEREVAN FROM MOSCOW
The prime minister of Georgia Bidzina Ivanishvili has stated recently
that Georgia has made its choice to join NATO and the EU, and this is
the choice of the Georgian people which no leader can change. Recently
Georgia has hosted NATO Secretary General Rasmussen.
The statements of the Georgian prime minister are interesting from
the point of view of developments relating to Armenia. Recently it
has been clear that the moment of truth is approaching, and Yerevan
must make up its mind on the choice between signing an Association
Agreement with the EU or joining the Customs Union. The Russian
pressure is intensifying both externally and internally.
In this situation Bidzina Ivanishvili sees an excellent chance to
build its relations with the West. The point is that recently the
Western policy is evidence to a tendency and moods of change of the
key partner in the Caucasus. After Saakashvili Georgia was the key
partner of the West in the South Caucasus but in the following years
Washington and Brussels realized that the partner does not have the
full potential that would allow shifting partnership to a strategic
level. The South Ossetian war indicated that the level of partnership
between Georgia and the West was not strategic, so answerer 1 was
Georgia and its president. Saakashvili was unable or unwilling to
assume a serious political role. He preferred financial benefits from
the anti-Armenian moods of Turkey and Azerbaijan. Saakashvili chose
money, leaving the heavy load of politics on Armenia.
It was crisp and clear to the West that due to the prospect of
resolving strategic issues with Georgia the region could be startled
by Turkey and Azerbaijan. Washington and Brussels understood that
only Armenia could be a strategic partner judging by the priorities
and challenges of the two Armenian states.
Mildly speaking, it is hard to tell that the current Armenian
government has achieved this understanding. There may be an intuitive
understanding which is not sufficient to treat the state interests
appropriately. However, not the government of Armenia but Armenia is
the current partner of the West. The West is loyal to the Armenian
government because the West has not been able to find an appropriate
partner that would be able to tackle challenges with conceptual
approaches.
Nevertheless, it is clear that the West now makes a bid on Armenia.
However, questions occur because the Armenian government is guided by
its personal interests, not a comprehensive strategic understanding
of the national interest. Therefore, the West has doubts that official
Yerevan may step back as the Russians have launched an offensive.
Bidzina Ivanishvili understands how favorable this moment is to make
the West believe in Georgia. At the same time, Tbilisi will blackmail
Moscow to make it more lenient in the process of normalization of
relations unless the Kremlin wants to be left out of the game for
Georgia.
Nevertheless, Ivanishvili may be helpful to Armenia by distracting
Moscow. Moscow thinks it already has Georgia in its pocket and has
deployed all its resources for a campaign against Armenia.
Ivanishvili's steps will make Moscow stop and look back.
Georgia is as important to the Kremlin as Armenia from the point of
view of regional tendencies. In Armenia Russia will become an island
even if it succeeds preventing Yerevan from further integration with
the EU. In other words, Armenia may become a Russian outpost.
Meanwhile, in the 21st century keeping its influence on an outpost
is the same as keeping a fly in the lion's cage.
Hakob Badalyan 17:44 27/06/2013 Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/30301
The prime minister of Georgia Bidzina Ivanishvili has stated recently
that Georgia has made its choice to join NATO and the EU, and this is
the choice of the Georgian people which no leader can change. Recently
Georgia has hosted NATO Secretary General Rasmussen.
The statements of the Georgian prime minister are interesting from
the point of view of developments relating to Armenia. Recently it
has been clear that the moment of truth is approaching, and Yerevan
must make up its mind on the choice between signing an Association
Agreement with the EU or joining the Customs Union. The Russian
pressure is intensifying both externally and internally.
In this situation Bidzina Ivanishvili sees an excellent chance to
build its relations with the West. The point is that recently the
Western policy is evidence to a tendency and moods of change of the
key partner in the Caucasus. After Saakashvili Georgia was the key
partner of the West in the South Caucasus but in the following years
Washington and Brussels realized that the partner does not have the
full potential that would allow shifting partnership to a strategic
level. The South Ossetian war indicated that the level of partnership
between Georgia and the West was not strategic, so answerer 1 was
Georgia and its president. Saakashvili was unable or unwilling to
assume a serious political role. He preferred financial benefits from
the anti-Armenian moods of Turkey and Azerbaijan. Saakashvili chose
money, leaving the heavy load of politics on Armenia.
It was crisp and clear to the West that due to the prospect of
resolving strategic issues with Georgia the region could be startled
by Turkey and Azerbaijan. Washington and Brussels understood that
only Armenia could be a strategic partner judging by the priorities
and challenges of the two Armenian states.
Mildly speaking, it is hard to tell that the current Armenian
government has achieved this understanding. There may be an intuitive
understanding which is not sufficient to treat the state interests
appropriately. However, not the government of Armenia but Armenia is
the current partner of the West. The West is loyal to the Armenian
government because the West has not been able to find an appropriate
partner that would be able to tackle challenges with conceptual
approaches.
Nevertheless, it is clear that the West now makes a bid on Armenia.
However, questions occur because the Armenian government is guided by
its personal interests, not a comprehensive strategic understanding
of the national interest. Therefore, the West has doubts that official
Yerevan may step back as the Russians have launched an offensive.
Bidzina Ivanishvili understands how favorable this moment is to make
the West believe in Georgia. At the same time, Tbilisi will blackmail
Moscow to make it more lenient in the process of normalization of
relations unless the Kremlin wants to be left out of the game for
Georgia.
Nevertheless, Ivanishvili may be helpful to Armenia by distracting
Moscow. Moscow thinks it already has Georgia in its pocket and has
deployed all its resources for a campaign against Armenia.
Ivanishvili's steps will make Moscow stop and look back.
Georgia is as important to the Kremlin as Armenia from the point of
view of regional tendencies. In Armenia Russia will become an island
even if it succeeds preventing Yerevan from further integration with
the EU. In other words, Armenia may become a Russian outpost.
Meanwhile, in the 21st century keeping its influence on an outpost
is the same as keeping a fly in the lion's cage.
Hakob Badalyan 17:44 27/06/2013 Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/30301