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SERZH SARGSYAN HAS SERIOUS DOUBTS
Serzh Sargsyan stated during his visit to Warsaw that Armenia will not
act against Russia because history, economy and security link us to
Russia. At the same time, in Poland Serzh Sargsyan held another pageant
of his commitment to Europe but Poland responded in a working mode,
and the president of that country said that Armenia cannot join both
the Customs Union and the Eurasian Union, it must choose either one,
or the other.
However, official Yerevan insists on the "both" option. Yerevan
pretends as if it does not understand Europe's message. Most probably,
it does but wants to mark time though it is not clear why and till
when.
One possible reason is to mark time till November when the Association
Agreement and DCFTA will be pre-signed in Vilnius. For the time being,
Yerevan will make sure not to anger Russia and refrain from abrupt
actions, especially that it has already taken some tough steps.
However, is there confidence that Russia will give up and congratulate
Armenia in autumn or will it nevertheless take abrupt steps? Or will
Armenia develop immunity to Russian offensives as soon as it pre-signs
the agreements?
Yes but Europe must call the donor meeting postponed constantly
immediately after the signing of agreements to direct millions of
investments to Armenia. In this case, Armenia will develop immunity
unless the millions are not stolen in Armenia as it has been the
practice so far.
Currently, there is no confidence whether the millions will arrive. At
least, Europe has not made such commitments as part of the Association
Agreement. Moreover, the agreement will be only pre-signed, after
which it will take months to ratify it. Take at least EU Delegation
Head Trian Hristea's recent statement that the agreement will be
translated to languages of 28 EU member states.
In other words, nothing will change for Armenia after the signing of
the agreement, which means that Armenia will not be more resistant
to Russia than now. So why is Armenia marking time with its obstinate
"both" thesis , especially that Russia judged about the processes by
the state of affairs rather than the statements by Yerevan. As Vartan
Oskanian, the ex-foreign minister said, Lavrov is a person who may
know more about the settlement of the Karabakh process than we do.
Lavrov surely knows more about the negotiations between the EU and
Armenia than we do.
The Armenian government is marking time for itself, not for anyone
else. The "both" principle is promoted because Serzh Sargsyan is not
sure how long he will be able to stand Russia's growing pressure.
"Both" leaves him space for an honorable retreat.
Otherwise, if the task were marking time till re-signing, Europe
would not keep repeating to Sargsyan the same thing at increasingly
higher levels. The more Serzh Sargsyan speaks about "both", the more
concerns Europe has about Serzh Sargsyan's confidence. Otherwise,
Europe would allow Serzh Sargsyan to maneuver and mark time.
Hakob Badalyan 15:59 28/06/2013 Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/30315
Serzh Sargsyan stated during his visit to Warsaw that Armenia will not
act against Russia because history, economy and security link us to
Russia. At the same time, in Poland Serzh Sargsyan held another pageant
of his commitment to Europe but Poland responded in a working mode,
and the president of that country said that Armenia cannot join both
the Customs Union and the Eurasian Union, it must choose either one,
or the other.
However, official Yerevan insists on the "both" option. Yerevan
pretends as if it does not understand Europe's message. Most probably,
it does but wants to mark time though it is not clear why and till
when.
One possible reason is to mark time till November when the Association
Agreement and DCFTA will be pre-signed in Vilnius. For the time being,
Yerevan will make sure not to anger Russia and refrain from abrupt
actions, especially that it has already taken some tough steps.
However, is there confidence that Russia will give up and congratulate
Armenia in autumn or will it nevertheless take abrupt steps? Or will
Armenia develop immunity to Russian offensives as soon as it pre-signs
the agreements?
Yes but Europe must call the donor meeting postponed constantly
immediately after the signing of agreements to direct millions of
investments to Armenia. In this case, Armenia will develop immunity
unless the millions are not stolen in Armenia as it has been the
practice so far.
Currently, there is no confidence whether the millions will arrive. At
least, Europe has not made such commitments as part of the Association
Agreement. Moreover, the agreement will be only pre-signed, after
which it will take months to ratify it. Take at least EU Delegation
Head Trian Hristea's recent statement that the agreement will be
translated to languages of 28 EU member states.
In other words, nothing will change for Armenia after the signing of
the agreement, which means that Armenia will not be more resistant
to Russia than now. So why is Armenia marking time with its obstinate
"both" thesis , especially that Russia judged about the processes by
the state of affairs rather than the statements by Yerevan. As Vartan
Oskanian, the ex-foreign minister said, Lavrov is a person who may
know more about the settlement of the Karabakh process than we do.
Lavrov surely knows more about the negotiations between the EU and
Armenia than we do.
The Armenian government is marking time for itself, not for anyone
else. The "both" principle is promoted because Serzh Sargsyan is not
sure how long he will be able to stand Russia's growing pressure.
"Both" leaves him space for an honorable retreat.
Otherwise, if the task were marking time till re-signing, Europe
would not keep repeating to Sargsyan the same thing at increasingly
higher levels. The more Serzh Sargsyan speaks about "both", the more
concerns Europe has about Serzh Sargsyan's confidence. Otherwise,
Europe would allow Serzh Sargsyan to maneuver and mark time.
Hakob Badalyan 15:59 28/06/2013 Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/30315