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ARMENIA: DOES POST-ELECTION PROTEST INITIATIVE HAVE LEGS?
EurasiaNet.org, NY
Feb 27 2013
February 27, 2013 - 1:09pm, by Marianna Grigoryan
Raffi Hovhannisian -- the California native who finished second
to incumbent President Serzh Sargsyan in Armenia's February 18
presidential election -- has promised to fight "a battle of love"
to have the official voting results scrapped, and "the rule of the
people" restored. But how many people, and for how long, are willing
to support Hovhannisian's post-election campaign remains unclear.
International observers gave the conduct of the presidential election
a qualified thumbs-up. Experts who have analyzed balloting results
have noted discrepancies in voting patterns in election precincts
where monitors were on hand, and those where there were no outside
eyes to keep track of things.
So far, the Central Election Commission has not proven sympathetic to
Hovhannisian's claims of irregularities. It has rejected a request
from Hovhannisian for Sargsyan's disqualification as a candidate on
the basis of alleged abuse of administrative resources. Hovannisian
has five days to file a challenge against the official results,
released on February 25. So far, his Heritage Party has requested a
vote recount in 118 districts.
The 53-year-old Hovhannisian's protest initiative has been dubbed the
"Barevolution" or "Hello Revolution," a play on the Armenian word
"barev," or "hello" in English, and a reference to Hovhannisian's
American-style penchant for pressing the flesh with a wide range of
Armenian citizens during his pre-election campaign. The candidate's
recent rallies at Yerevan's downtown protest venue, Liberty Square,
revive memories of the large-scale opposition rallies against Armenia's
controversial 2008 presidential election results.
That year, thousands of people also were drawn to Liberty Square
by calls for change from former President Levon Ter-Petrosian, who
promised to "destroy the power pyramid [based on] rule by bandits."
But following scores of arrests and the death of 10 people in clashes
with police, the movement's slogan of "Struggle, struggle 'til the
end!" eventually experienced a quiet death.
Local observers believe that Hovhannisian, a former foreign minister
who was touted as "King Raffi" for his gentlemanly behavior, a relative
rarity in Armenian politics, poses a sharp contrast to Ter-Petrosian's
fire-and-brimstone approach to protesting.
Hovhannisian's speeches do not include calls for government overthrows,
and are generally moderate in tone. He treats police officers and
officials with respect, going so far as to apologize for not getting
city permission for a February 24 rally in Yerevan.
He has even, melodramatically, pledged his life to prevent shedding
"a single drop of blood."
The moderate tone of the protest has resonated in the Armenian capital
Yerevan. People who join Hovhannisian's rallies "have seen a ray of
hope and felt there is a chance to change the polarized situation in
the country," commented 55-year-old Yerevan resident Lena Mnatsakanian
at a February 20 rally in Liberty Square. "I myself did not believe
that people would get to their feet again, but look at what is going
on now."
Hundreds of university students in Yerevan staged "anti-Serzh"
demonstrations on February 25, in response to a call from Hovhannisian
for student protests against the election results. Hundreds more
voters have gathered in regional towns to welcome him on a "victory
tour" of areas where his support ran high, or poured, once again,
into Liberty Square, to cheer on his claim that the final election
results were fixed.
Conceivably, the public support of celebrity Diaspora Armenians such
as American-Armenian rock singer Serj Tankian and Paris-based actor
Vardan Petrosyan might extend that support further.
Political analyst Sergei Minasian, deputy director of the Caucasus
Institute, a Yerevan-based think-tank, believes the secret behind
Hovhannisian's popular appeal is that he was "in the right place at
the right time."
The fact that Hovhannisian, whose Heritage Party holds four seats in
parliament, received 36.74 percent of the vote, against President
Serzh Sargsyan's 58.64 percent, surprised many. By comparison,
the more prominent Ter-Petrosian won 21.5 percent of the 2008 vote,
according to official data.
If larger opposition parties such as Ter-Petrosian's Armenian National
Congress, the Armenian Revolutionary Federation or the financially
powerful Prosperous Armenia "had taken part in the 2013 election, the
results might be fairly different," Minasian said. "Raffi Hovhannisian
was unlikely to receive the unprecedented scale of votes that he did,
if he hadn't found himself in such a favorable situation."
Both Ter-Petrosian and the Armenian Revolutionary Federation have now
joined Hovhannisian's "Barevolution." The alliance, though, is not
altogether a natural fit. Accustomed to the spotlight, Ter-Petrosian,
in whose cabinet Hovhannisian served as foreign minister in 1991-92,
noted that the protest movement was not Hovhannisian's creation, but
the people's, and drily remarked that he hadn't seen much work so far.
Journalist Nikol Pashinian, a leading ANC figure who gained a
reputation as an impassioned speaker during the 2008 protests, also
has signed on. For now, Prosperous Armenia has confined itself to
broad statements about being in "support of the people."
Independent political analyst Stepan Danielian doubts that Hovhannisian
will be able to "win back rule by the people" and shy away from
more aggressive, confrontational tactics. Hovhannisian's ability to
form "a large coalition" among his supporters, and avoid unilateral
decision-making (reportedly the preferred style of Ter-Petrosian),
would be the key to his success, Danielian emphasized.
For now, apart from encouraging protests against the election results,
Hovhannisian's future plans remain relatively vague.
The government, for its part, appears to be betting that time is
on its side. Perhaps mindful of the 2008 clashes, police have not
attempted to prevent any of the "Barevolution" gatherings, even when
official authorization has not been obtained by protesters.
Sargsyan's Republican Party of Armenia has denied media reports that
a change of prime ministers is under discussion, PanArmenian.net
reported. What changes have occurred seem more linked to post-election
housecleaning than any concession to the "Barevolution."
The governor of the northwestern region of Shirak, where Hovhannisian
defeated President Sargsyan by over 11,000 votes, has resigned; talks
are underway within the party about dismissing the presidentially
appointed mayors of Vanadzor and Kapan, key regional towns that
Sargsyan lost to Hovhannisian. The mayor of Armavir, where Sargsyan
also lost, already has resigned.
What more, if anything, will follow remains unclear. But for
Barevolution supporter Mnatsakanian, what matters is that a push
for fair dealing has begun. "I hope that, this time, people won't be
disappionted," she said.
Editor's note: Marianna Grigoryan is a freelance reporter based in
Yerevan and editor of MediaLab.am.
http://www.eurasianet.org/node/66615
EurasiaNet.org, NY
Feb 27 2013
February 27, 2013 - 1:09pm, by Marianna Grigoryan
Raffi Hovhannisian -- the California native who finished second
to incumbent President Serzh Sargsyan in Armenia's February 18
presidential election -- has promised to fight "a battle of love"
to have the official voting results scrapped, and "the rule of the
people" restored. But how many people, and for how long, are willing
to support Hovhannisian's post-election campaign remains unclear.
International observers gave the conduct of the presidential election
a qualified thumbs-up. Experts who have analyzed balloting results
have noted discrepancies in voting patterns in election precincts
where monitors were on hand, and those where there were no outside
eyes to keep track of things.
So far, the Central Election Commission has not proven sympathetic to
Hovhannisian's claims of irregularities. It has rejected a request
from Hovhannisian for Sargsyan's disqualification as a candidate on
the basis of alleged abuse of administrative resources. Hovannisian
has five days to file a challenge against the official results,
released on February 25. So far, his Heritage Party has requested a
vote recount in 118 districts.
The 53-year-old Hovhannisian's protest initiative has been dubbed the
"Barevolution" or "Hello Revolution," a play on the Armenian word
"barev," or "hello" in English, and a reference to Hovhannisian's
American-style penchant for pressing the flesh with a wide range of
Armenian citizens during his pre-election campaign. The candidate's
recent rallies at Yerevan's downtown protest venue, Liberty Square,
revive memories of the large-scale opposition rallies against Armenia's
controversial 2008 presidential election results.
That year, thousands of people also were drawn to Liberty Square
by calls for change from former President Levon Ter-Petrosian, who
promised to "destroy the power pyramid [based on] rule by bandits."
But following scores of arrests and the death of 10 people in clashes
with police, the movement's slogan of "Struggle, struggle 'til the
end!" eventually experienced a quiet death.
Local observers believe that Hovhannisian, a former foreign minister
who was touted as "King Raffi" for his gentlemanly behavior, a relative
rarity in Armenian politics, poses a sharp contrast to Ter-Petrosian's
fire-and-brimstone approach to protesting.
Hovhannisian's speeches do not include calls for government overthrows,
and are generally moderate in tone. He treats police officers and
officials with respect, going so far as to apologize for not getting
city permission for a February 24 rally in Yerevan.
He has even, melodramatically, pledged his life to prevent shedding
"a single drop of blood."
The moderate tone of the protest has resonated in the Armenian capital
Yerevan. People who join Hovhannisian's rallies "have seen a ray of
hope and felt there is a chance to change the polarized situation in
the country," commented 55-year-old Yerevan resident Lena Mnatsakanian
at a February 20 rally in Liberty Square. "I myself did not believe
that people would get to their feet again, but look at what is going
on now."
Hundreds of university students in Yerevan staged "anti-Serzh"
demonstrations on February 25, in response to a call from Hovhannisian
for student protests against the election results. Hundreds more
voters have gathered in regional towns to welcome him on a "victory
tour" of areas where his support ran high, or poured, once again,
into Liberty Square, to cheer on his claim that the final election
results were fixed.
Conceivably, the public support of celebrity Diaspora Armenians such
as American-Armenian rock singer Serj Tankian and Paris-based actor
Vardan Petrosyan might extend that support further.
Political analyst Sergei Minasian, deputy director of the Caucasus
Institute, a Yerevan-based think-tank, believes the secret behind
Hovhannisian's popular appeal is that he was "in the right place at
the right time."
The fact that Hovhannisian, whose Heritage Party holds four seats in
parliament, received 36.74 percent of the vote, against President
Serzh Sargsyan's 58.64 percent, surprised many. By comparison,
the more prominent Ter-Petrosian won 21.5 percent of the 2008 vote,
according to official data.
If larger opposition parties such as Ter-Petrosian's Armenian National
Congress, the Armenian Revolutionary Federation or the financially
powerful Prosperous Armenia "had taken part in the 2013 election, the
results might be fairly different," Minasian said. "Raffi Hovhannisian
was unlikely to receive the unprecedented scale of votes that he did,
if he hadn't found himself in such a favorable situation."
Both Ter-Petrosian and the Armenian Revolutionary Federation have now
joined Hovhannisian's "Barevolution." The alliance, though, is not
altogether a natural fit. Accustomed to the spotlight, Ter-Petrosian,
in whose cabinet Hovhannisian served as foreign minister in 1991-92,
noted that the protest movement was not Hovhannisian's creation, but
the people's, and drily remarked that he hadn't seen much work so far.
Journalist Nikol Pashinian, a leading ANC figure who gained a
reputation as an impassioned speaker during the 2008 protests, also
has signed on. For now, Prosperous Armenia has confined itself to
broad statements about being in "support of the people."
Independent political analyst Stepan Danielian doubts that Hovhannisian
will be able to "win back rule by the people" and shy away from
more aggressive, confrontational tactics. Hovhannisian's ability to
form "a large coalition" among his supporters, and avoid unilateral
decision-making (reportedly the preferred style of Ter-Petrosian),
would be the key to his success, Danielian emphasized.
For now, apart from encouraging protests against the election results,
Hovhannisian's future plans remain relatively vague.
The government, for its part, appears to be betting that time is
on its side. Perhaps mindful of the 2008 clashes, police have not
attempted to prevent any of the "Barevolution" gatherings, even when
official authorization has not been obtained by protesters.
Sargsyan's Republican Party of Armenia has denied media reports that
a change of prime ministers is under discussion, PanArmenian.net
reported. What changes have occurred seem more linked to post-election
housecleaning than any concession to the "Barevolution."
The governor of the northwestern region of Shirak, where Hovhannisian
defeated President Sargsyan by over 11,000 votes, has resigned; talks
are underway within the party about dismissing the presidentially
appointed mayors of Vanadzor and Kapan, key regional towns that
Sargsyan lost to Hovhannisian. The mayor of Armavir, where Sargsyan
also lost, already has resigned.
What more, if anything, will follow remains unclear. But for
Barevolution supporter Mnatsakanian, what matters is that a push
for fair dealing has begun. "I hope that, this time, people won't be
disappionted," she said.
Editor's note: Marianna Grigoryan is a freelance reporter based in
Yerevan and editor of MediaLab.am.
http://www.eurasianet.org/node/66615