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INTENSIFICATION OF RUSSIA-TURKEY INDIRECT MILITARY AND POLITICAL CONFRONTATION
Sergei Sargsyan
http://www.noravank.am/eng/articles/detail.php?ELEMENT_ID=6917
25.02.2013
Deputy Head of the Center for Political Studies, "Noravank" Foundation,
Senior Expert
The relationship of Russia and Turkey in the periods when they
were in the state of war resemble a game of mult-iboard military
and political chess on the geographically separated boards, and
each game has its logic, its intrigue, its pieces but they all are
interconnected and constitute a part of the same big mosaic. Moreover,
the more independent extra-alliance foreign political activity Ankara
demonstrates the more often and more vividly its policy confronts
the interests of Moscow.
The elements of indirect confrontation can be observed with different
intensity fr om Moldova, Crimea, North and South Caucasus to Ural
and Central Asia. In recent two years Syria has become a new point
of collision of interests.
Russia is very interested first of all in continuing and
intensification of exploitation of their naval base in Tartus and
preserving the Syrian arms and military tenchnics market for the
production of the their military industrial complex.
Turkey's interests are conditioned by the fact that this country
tends to stir up its foreign policy in all the directions, especially
within the boarders of the former Ottoman Empire. And the goals of
this country in Syria are as follows:
- not to allow using the regions of Syria tensely populated by the
Kurds as rear bases for Kurdish Workers' Party;
- not to allow the KWP somehow to receive modern arms and ammunition
fr om the Syrian army depots;
- to remove fr om power the Alewi elite of the Syrian Arab Republic;
- to counter Iran thus targeting to become an ultimate leader in the
region, etc.
Their main goal is not to prejudice interests of Russia; simply
objectively and despite the goals of Turkey they do prejudice these
interests.
Turkey's (as well as Israel's) logic of action is based on
the conclusion of irreversibility of destabilization of domestic
political situation in Syria, its transition into a state of permanent
instability with a tendency of a critical growth of social-economic
and political problems.
Today the opposition confronting the Bashar Assad's regime consists of:
- Syrian Free Army,
- Militants of "Muslim Brothers" movement,
- Radicals and jihadists from "Al-Qaida"
- Independently acting small, disjointed groups.
Each of them has the support base of its own as well as established
help channels from abroad. These groups generally and particularly are
ready to form temporary and situational alliances on the assumption
of their tactical interests. They mainly comprise of volunteers and
mercenaries from mostly Sunnite countries.
In such situation without a reliably closed borders, which is almost
unrealizable in case with Syria, it is still possible to reduce the
activity of the radicals but the authorities of Syria can hardly
achieve profound victory over them. They still have enough material,
financial and human resources in order to keep "swinging" the domestic
political situation in the state. Gradual accumulation of the mental
fatigue from long civil war, terrorist activity of different groups
of different ideological orientation, deterioration of social and
economic situation will direct the ways of solution of the crisis in
the way of changing the current leadership.
But even the controlled and abate Islamization of Syria (as they
hope in the West) in the form of anti-Assad democratization of the
country, on the pattern of both Turkey and Egypt, will inevitably
bring to the worsening of the state of Alawis, Christians and Kurds
in Syria. As a result, the Armenian Diaspora in Syria is interested
in stabilization of situation in the country on the assumption of
preserving the current ruling elite (the option Russia insists on).
The naval exercises in the water area of the Mediterranean and Black
Seas, in which 20 ships and 3 submarines, including one nuclear
submarine, of at once three fleets - Black Sea, Baltic Sea and
North Sea (among them major anti-submarine ship of North Sea fleet
"Severomorsk", major assault landing ships of the Black Sea fleet
"Azov", "Saratov" and guards guided missile cruiser "Moskva") -
participated were a manifestation of the support of Damascus and
non-admission of coercive displacement of B. Assad. As the Minister of
Foreign Affairs of Russia Sergei Lavrov said: "We are not interested
in even more destabilization of the Mediterranean region and presence
of our fleet there is an unconditional factor of stabilization of
the situation"1.
And in case of final destabilization and disintegration of the country,
appearance of the Alawi-Christian state on the Mediterranean shore
looks more preferable than final displacement of the Syrian Armenians
from Syria on the model of some other Middle East countries.
Turkey, taking advantage of mortaring of its border areas from the
adjacent Syrian territories, wh ere intensive fights between the
government forces and militants were proceeding, did not restrict
itself to artillery shelling of the positions of the Syrian army
in response, (complicity of the Syrian governmental forcers to
the incidents was not proved) and requested from its NATO partners
assistance and deployment of antiaircraft defense facilities.
According to the official version temporally and exclusively for
covering of the Southern border with Syria, totally 6 "Patriot"
anti-missile defense systems were supplied to Turkey (by two from
the U.S., Germany and the Netherlands), and since the late January
they have come on alert.
The places of their deployment are remarkable - near the cities of
Adana (about 120km from the Syrian border), Kahramanmaras (about 90km)
and Gaziantep (about 45km). Taking into consideration the range of
engagement which does not go beyond 80km, it can be assumed that
the priority mission of "Patriot" anti-missile defense systems will
be rather covering protection of the NATO military objects and in
particular "Incirlik" air base than the near-border population centers
of country.
But the prospects of delivering a massive strike to the territory
of Turkey by Syria, especially under the ongoing domestic political
military conflict, are practically equal to zero and it is nothing but
a suicide for B. Assad. But the attempts by the Syrian militants and
the powers which support them in order to provoke Turkey and NATO into
taking counter measures against the Syrian government forces cannot be
excluded either. This is especially remarkable against the background
of information of a Syrian "Al-Vatan" newspaper about an attempt of a
covert penetration of four Turkish fighter-pilots2 with the assistance
of a group of armed militants to the "Koerc" military airport (Aleppo
province), which was denied by the Turkish General Staff on the same
day3 and as it seems even without checking this information.
Besides Syria, the changing of the place of the second panel session
of the High Level Strategic Partnership Council from Baku to Ghabala
became an unpleasant demarche for Russia on behalf of Turkey and
Azerbaijan. The meeting wh ere the president of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev
and the prime-minister of Turkey Recep Tayiip Erdogan were present
resulted in "singing of seven documents which, by their importance,
did not correspond to the high level of the meeting"4.
Those were documents on metrology, TV companies, cargo transportation,
rescue services and seed industry.
Against the background of setting forth unacceptable for Russia
conditions by Azerbaijan on continuing exploitation of Ghabala
Radar Station and initiation of evacuation of the military staff and
operational personnel and their families, it has become not only a
pinnacle to Moscow but also a vivid manifestation of final shift of
foreign policy priorities by Baku.
One of the sounded reasons of suspending cooperation with Russia
in terms of Ghabala Radar has become the fact that it covers mainly
Muslim and brotherly states to Azerbaijan, including Turkey. Meanwhile
Turkey signed on September 14, 2011 a memorandum with the US on
the deployment of AN/TPY-2 Radar System (old name - FBR-T - Forward
Based Radar -Transportable) intended for detecting ballistic missiles
early in their flight, identifying and tracking them. It is meant
to provide the tracking information to the U.S. Navy ships which
are equipped with missile-defense systems and which will
realize its direct interception. Not long after that the radar was
deployed in the region of Kuluncak of Turkish Malatya province. But
in the opinion of Russian experts one of the main goals of this radar
which can detect and identify objects at the distance of 2000km is the
control of the air space of South Caucasus, part of Central Asia as
well as the Southern part of Russia, thus tracking the experimental
launches of the Russian missiles from the test fields.
One way or another, deployment of the U.S. anti-missile defense radar
and "Patriot" missiles in Turkey will become a handy excuse for Russia
to equip its 102nd military base, deployed on the territory of Armenia,
by the forces and facilities of both electronic and fire suppression
of the anti-aircraft defense and anti-missile defense systems.
During the visit of the Minister of Defense of Russia S. Shoygu in
late January 2013, once again the parties confirmed their aspiration
to strengthen joint security, as well as military-political and
military-technical partnership directed among other aims to not
allowing the military ways of resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict.
The proposal made by the Russian Naval Chief Command on the
strengthening of the 25th separate missile battalion of the 11th
separate coast missile-artillery brigade (Utash population center,
near the city of Anapa, Krasnodar Region, RF) by the forth squadron of
"Bastion" mobile coastal missile systems which will enter service in
2014, fitly works with the asymmetric response of Russia.
The system is capable of hitting naval surface ships and vessels of all
the types and classes, both separate targets and amphibian, carrier and
strike groups under the fire and electronic countermeasures. "Bastion"
is capable of hitting the targets at the distance of 300km5 by "Onix"
anti-ship missiles and to cover from the amphibian operations of the
enemy 600km of coast.
This will adjust the balance of naval forces which was changed not in
Russia's favour after the division of the Black Sea Fleet and economic
difficulties of the last two decades. Besides the NATO ships which
periodically put in the Black Sea water area (except of coarse the
Navies of Bulgaria and Romania), there are no more potential targets
for "Bastion" than the ships of the Turkish navy.
* * *
At the same time available and deepening indirect discrepancies in
military and political sphere, in due form of Eastern diplomacy,
are accompanied by direct political and diplomatic activity and
development of mutually beneficial economic cooperation. A number of
measures directed to starting construction of the offshore part of
"South Stream" gas pipeline are taken; the negotiations on increasing
natural gas supply to Turkey up to 3 billion m3 are hold; the commodity
turnover is growing (by 11% in 2012, up to $33 billion).
Moreover, invitation to Ankara to join Eurasian integration project
became a new stage in the relations of two countries, though Turkey
has almost no chances to become a full-fledged member of a forming
Eurasian Union due to the same reasons as its entering European Union.
Any other status intends subordinated position of a junior partner
which suits fine to Moscow, Astana and Minsk but not Ankara.
And though in order to create real counterpoise or to balance
virtually the "western" vector of the foreign policy Ankara will tend
to strengthen or at least to imitate strengthening of "eastern" vector,
it will mainly focus on more flexible geopolitical project in which
Russia accumulates more problems and contradictions and wh ere it is
not an ultimate leader, i.e. in Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
1 ea "Росбалт", 23 января 2013C.,
http://www.rosbalt.ru/main/2013/01/23/1084750.html
2 В oEрEE арестованы четыре турецкEх летчEка-EстребEтеля,
ea , 31 декабря 2012 Cода,
http://www.interfax.ru/russia/news.asp?id=283671
3 ТурцEя отрEцает арест своEх летчEков в oEрEE, ea ,
31 декабря 2012, http://evrazia.org/news/24843
4 aзербайдOано-турецкEй саммEт под сенью россEйской
РЛo, aналEтEческая слуOба Туран, 12 сентября 2012C.,
http://www.contact.az/docs/2012/Analytics/091200010898ru.htm#.URf5p2LPzeM
5 By the compound flight line (the extension of the terminal phase)
- 300km; by low-altitude flight line (at a height of 15m) - 120km
"Globus" analytical journal, #2, 2013
Another materials of author GEORGIA: AN ATTEMPT TO MANEUVER IN A NARROW
GAUGE[14.01.2013] SOME ASPECTS OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF MILITARY AND
POLITICAL SITUATION ROUND THE NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONFLICT [02.08.2012]
"IT IS NECESSARY TO RAISE ENERGY EFFICIENCY", - says the deputy
head of the Center for Political Studies of "Noravank" Foundation
Sergei SARGSYAN in his interview to "Golos Armenii"[26.07.2012]
TRANS-CASPIAN GAS PIPELINE: GOALS, PROBLEMS AND RISKS [25.06.2012]
TURKEY IN THE US MISSILE DEFENCE SYSTEM: PRIMARY ASSESSMENT AND
POSSIBLE PROSPECTS[13.10.2011] ARMENIA AT THE INTERSECTION OF
THE INTERESTS OF THE MILITARY AND POLITICAL BLOCKS[05.09.2011]
SHALE GAS GHOST[08.02.2011] GAS FROM IRAQI KURDISTAN FOR NABUCCO:
TURKISH INTEREST [15.12.2010] AZERBAIJAN: SEARCHING NEW FOREIGN POLICY
BALANCE[27.10.2010] TWO 'STREAMS' FROM RUSSIA: BREAKING DOWN THE OLD
GEOPOLITICAL STRUCTURES[21.06.2010]
Sergei Sargsyan
http://www.noravank.am/eng/articles/detail.php?ELEMENT_ID=6917
25.02.2013
Deputy Head of the Center for Political Studies, "Noravank" Foundation,
Senior Expert
The relationship of Russia and Turkey in the periods when they
were in the state of war resemble a game of mult-iboard military
and political chess on the geographically separated boards, and
each game has its logic, its intrigue, its pieces but they all are
interconnected and constitute a part of the same big mosaic. Moreover,
the more independent extra-alliance foreign political activity Ankara
demonstrates the more often and more vividly its policy confronts
the interests of Moscow.
The elements of indirect confrontation can be observed with different
intensity fr om Moldova, Crimea, North and South Caucasus to Ural
and Central Asia. In recent two years Syria has become a new point
of collision of interests.
Russia is very interested first of all in continuing and
intensification of exploitation of their naval base in Tartus and
preserving the Syrian arms and military tenchnics market for the
production of the their military industrial complex.
Turkey's interests are conditioned by the fact that this country
tends to stir up its foreign policy in all the directions, especially
within the boarders of the former Ottoman Empire. And the goals of
this country in Syria are as follows:
- not to allow using the regions of Syria tensely populated by the
Kurds as rear bases for Kurdish Workers' Party;
- not to allow the KWP somehow to receive modern arms and ammunition
fr om the Syrian army depots;
- to remove fr om power the Alewi elite of the Syrian Arab Republic;
- to counter Iran thus targeting to become an ultimate leader in the
region, etc.
Their main goal is not to prejudice interests of Russia; simply
objectively and despite the goals of Turkey they do prejudice these
interests.
Turkey's (as well as Israel's) logic of action is based on
the conclusion of irreversibility of destabilization of domestic
political situation in Syria, its transition into a state of permanent
instability with a tendency of a critical growth of social-economic
and political problems.
Today the opposition confronting the Bashar Assad's regime consists of:
- Syrian Free Army,
- Militants of "Muslim Brothers" movement,
- Radicals and jihadists from "Al-Qaida"
- Independently acting small, disjointed groups.
Each of them has the support base of its own as well as established
help channels from abroad. These groups generally and particularly are
ready to form temporary and situational alliances on the assumption
of their tactical interests. They mainly comprise of volunteers and
mercenaries from mostly Sunnite countries.
In such situation without a reliably closed borders, which is almost
unrealizable in case with Syria, it is still possible to reduce the
activity of the radicals but the authorities of Syria can hardly
achieve profound victory over them. They still have enough material,
financial and human resources in order to keep "swinging" the domestic
political situation in the state. Gradual accumulation of the mental
fatigue from long civil war, terrorist activity of different groups
of different ideological orientation, deterioration of social and
economic situation will direct the ways of solution of the crisis in
the way of changing the current leadership.
But even the controlled and abate Islamization of Syria (as they
hope in the West) in the form of anti-Assad democratization of the
country, on the pattern of both Turkey and Egypt, will inevitably
bring to the worsening of the state of Alawis, Christians and Kurds
in Syria. As a result, the Armenian Diaspora in Syria is interested
in stabilization of situation in the country on the assumption of
preserving the current ruling elite (the option Russia insists on).
The naval exercises in the water area of the Mediterranean and Black
Seas, in which 20 ships and 3 submarines, including one nuclear
submarine, of at once three fleets - Black Sea, Baltic Sea and
North Sea (among them major anti-submarine ship of North Sea fleet
"Severomorsk", major assault landing ships of the Black Sea fleet
"Azov", "Saratov" and guards guided missile cruiser "Moskva") -
participated were a manifestation of the support of Damascus and
non-admission of coercive displacement of B. Assad. As the Minister of
Foreign Affairs of Russia Sergei Lavrov said: "We are not interested
in even more destabilization of the Mediterranean region and presence
of our fleet there is an unconditional factor of stabilization of
the situation"1.
And in case of final destabilization and disintegration of the country,
appearance of the Alawi-Christian state on the Mediterranean shore
looks more preferable than final displacement of the Syrian Armenians
from Syria on the model of some other Middle East countries.
Turkey, taking advantage of mortaring of its border areas from the
adjacent Syrian territories, wh ere intensive fights between the
government forces and militants were proceeding, did not restrict
itself to artillery shelling of the positions of the Syrian army
in response, (complicity of the Syrian governmental forcers to
the incidents was not proved) and requested from its NATO partners
assistance and deployment of antiaircraft defense facilities.
According to the official version temporally and exclusively for
covering of the Southern border with Syria, totally 6 "Patriot"
anti-missile defense systems were supplied to Turkey (by two from
the U.S., Germany and the Netherlands), and since the late January
they have come on alert.
The places of their deployment are remarkable - near the cities of
Adana (about 120km from the Syrian border), Kahramanmaras (about 90km)
and Gaziantep (about 45km). Taking into consideration the range of
engagement which does not go beyond 80km, it can be assumed that
the priority mission of "Patriot" anti-missile defense systems will
be rather covering protection of the NATO military objects and in
particular "Incirlik" air base than the near-border population centers
of country.
But the prospects of delivering a massive strike to the territory
of Turkey by Syria, especially under the ongoing domestic political
military conflict, are practically equal to zero and it is nothing but
a suicide for B. Assad. But the attempts by the Syrian militants and
the powers which support them in order to provoke Turkey and NATO into
taking counter measures against the Syrian government forces cannot be
excluded either. This is especially remarkable against the background
of information of a Syrian "Al-Vatan" newspaper about an attempt of a
covert penetration of four Turkish fighter-pilots2 with the assistance
of a group of armed militants to the "Koerc" military airport (Aleppo
province), which was denied by the Turkish General Staff on the same
day3 and as it seems even without checking this information.
Besides Syria, the changing of the place of the second panel session
of the High Level Strategic Partnership Council from Baku to Ghabala
became an unpleasant demarche for Russia on behalf of Turkey and
Azerbaijan. The meeting wh ere the president of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev
and the prime-minister of Turkey Recep Tayiip Erdogan were present
resulted in "singing of seven documents which, by their importance,
did not correspond to the high level of the meeting"4.
Those were documents on metrology, TV companies, cargo transportation,
rescue services and seed industry.
Against the background of setting forth unacceptable for Russia
conditions by Azerbaijan on continuing exploitation of Ghabala
Radar Station and initiation of evacuation of the military staff and
operational personnel and their families, it has become not only a
pinnacle to Moscow but also a vivid manifestation of final shift of
foreign policy priorities by Baku.
One of the sounded reasons of suspending cooperation with Russia
in terms of Ghabala Radar has become the fact that it covers mainly
Muslim and brotherly states to Azerbaijan, including Turkey. Meanwhile
Turkey signed on September 14, 2011 a memorandum with the US on
the deployment of AN/TPY-2 Radar System (old name - FBR-T - Forward
Based Radar -Transportable) intended for detecting ballistic missiles
early in their flight, identifying and tracking them. It is meant
to provide the tracking information to the U.S. Navy ships which
are equipped with missile-defense systems and which will
realize its direct interception. Not long after that the radar was
deployed in the region of Kuluncak of Turkish Malatya province. But
in the opinion of Russian experts one of the main goals of this radar
which can detect and identify objects at the distance of 2000km is the
control of the air space of South Caucasus, part of Central Asia as
well as the Southern part of Russia, thus tracking the experimental
launches of the Russian missiles from the test fields.
One way or another, deployment of the U.S. anti-missile defense radar
and "Patriot" missiles in Turkey will become a handy excuse for Russia
to equip its 102nd military base, deployed on the territory of Armenia,
by the forces and facilities of both electronic and fire suppression
of the anti-aircraft defense and anti-missile defense systems.
During the visit of the Minister of Defense of Russia S. Shoygu in
late January 2013, once again the parties confirmed their aspiration
to strengthen joint security, as well as military-political and
military-technical partnership directed among other aims to not
allowing the military ways of resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict.
The proposal made by the Russian Naval Chief Command on the
strengthening of the 25th separate missile battalion of the 11th
separate coast missile-artillery brigade (Utash population center,
near the city of Anapa, Krasnodar Region, RF) by the forth squadron of
"Bastion" mobile coastal missile systems which will enter service in
2014, fitly works with the asymmetric response of Russia.
The system is capable of hitting naval surface ships and vessels of all
the types and classes, both separate targets and amphibian, carrier and
strike groups under the fire and electronic countermeasures. "Bastion"
is capable of hitting the targets at the distance of 300km5 by "Onix"
anti-ship missiles and to cover from the amphibian operations of the
enemy 600km of coast.
This will adjust the balance of naval forces which was changed not in
Russia's favour after the division of the Black Sea Fleet and economic
difficulties of the last two decades. Besides the NATO ships which
periodically put in the Black Sea water area (except of coarse the
Navies of Bulgaria and Romania), there are no more potential targets
for "Bastion" than the ships of the Turkish navy.
* * *
At the same time available and deepening indirect discrepancies in
military and political sphere, in due form of Eastern diplomacy,
are accompanied by direct political and diplomatic activity and
development of mutually beneficial economic cooperation. A number of
measures directed to starting construction of the offshore part of
"South Stream" gas pipeline are taken; the negotiations on increasing
natural gas supply to Turkey up to 3 billion m3 are hold; the commodity
turnover is growing (by 11% in 2012, up to $33 billion).
Moreover, invitation to Ankara to join Eurasian integration project
became a new stage in the relations of two countries, though Turkey
has almost no chances to become a full-fledged member of a forming
Eurasian Union due to the same reasons as its entering European Union.
Any other status intends subordinated position of a junior partner
which suits fine to Moscow, Astana and Minsk but not Ankara.
And though in order to create real counterpoise or to balance
virtually the "western" vector of the foreign policy Ankara will tend
to strengthen or at least to imitate strengthening of "eastern" vector,
it will mainly focus on more flexible geopolitical project in which
Russia accumulates more problems and contradictions and wh ere it is
not an ultimate leader, i.e. in Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
1 ea "Росбалт", 23 января 2013C.,
http://www.rosbalt.ru/main/2013/01/23/1084750.html
2 В oEрEE арестованы четыре турецкEх летчEка-EстребEтеля,
ea , 31 декабря 2012 Cода,
http://www.interfax.ru/russia/news.asp?id=283671
3 ТурцEя отрEцает арест своEх летчEков в oEрEE, ea ,
31 декабря 2012, http://evrazia.org/news/24843
4 aзербайдOано-турецкEй саммEт под сенью россEйской
РЛo, aналEтEческая слуOба Туран, 12 сентября 2012C.,
http://www.contact.az/docs/2012/Analytics/091200010898ru.htm#.URf5p2LPzeM
5 By the compound flight line (the extension of the terminal phase)
- 300km; by low-altitude flight line (at a height of 15m) - 120km
"Globus" analytical journal, #2, 2013
Another materials of author GEORGIA: AN ATTEMPT TO MANEUVER IN A NARROW
GAUGE[14.01.2013] SOME ASPECTS OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF MILITARY AND
POLITICAL SITUATION ROUND THE NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONFLICT [02.08.2012]
"IT IS NECESSARY TO RAISE ENERGY EFFICIENCY", - says the deputy
head of the Center for Political Studies of "Noravank" Foundation
Sergei SARGSYAN in his interview to "Golos Armenii"[26.07.2012]
TRANS-CASPIAN GAS PIPELINE: GOALS, PROBLEMS AND RISKS [25.06.2012]
TURKEY IN THE US MISSILE DEFENCE SYSTEM: PRIMARY ASSESSMENT AND
POSSIBLE PROSPECTS[13.10.2011] ARMENIA AT THE INTERSECTION OF
THE INTERESTS OF THE MILITARY AND POLITICAL BLOCKS[05.09.2011]
SHALE GAS GHOST[08.02.2011] GAS FROM IRAQI KURDISTAN FOR NABUCCO:
TURKISH INTEREST [15.12.2010] AZERBAIJAN: SEARCHING NEW FOREIGN POLICY
BALANCE[27.10.2010] TWO 'STREAMS' FROM RUSSIA: BREAKING DOWN THE OLD
GEOPOLITICAL STRUCTURES[21.06.2010]