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SERZH SARGSYAN'S THREE NOS IN MOSCOW
HAKOB BADALYAN
15:22 05/03/2013
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index.php/eng/0/comments/view/29182
Congratulations on the official result of the presidential election
coming from foreign countries in such abundance are explained by the
Armenian public as a sign of the wish of all the great powers to have
a weak, illegitimate president which is why they rush to congratulate
Serzh Sargsyan who is believed by the greater part of the society to
have been reelected through rigged elections.
The confidence or at least the doubts about fraudulence of elections
are grounded. At the same time, it is clear that a government
lacking domestic legitimacy that seeks for legitimacy abroad is
more controllable, so the geopolitical centers will try to use this
circumstance in their relations with Armenia.
In the current period, foreign congratulations have more significant
reasons. Economically, socially and especially politically Armenia
is in such a situation when the effect or viability of domestic
legitimacy need not be overestimated in the relations with the world
neither in a short-term nor a medium-term perspective. It does not
mean not to attach any importance to this circumstance. Simply there
is no need to overestimate. I repeat at least in a short-term or a
medium-term perspective.
The geopolitical centers have so many levers of influence on the
Armenian government that they may ignore domestic legitimacy.
Moreover, in regard to controllability, it would be more influential
to hang the congratulation in the air rather than to send it in
advance. Moreover, advance is risky insofar as the interests of the
West and Russia are opposed.
The abundance of congratulations is explained by this rivalry. Now the
congratulations ensure "uncontrollability", not controllability of
Serzh Sargsyan. In other words, an attempt is made to give Sargsyan
and his administration a status of legitimacy to leave him less
controllable.
The impression that Russia refrained from the presidential election
was only a superficial impression. The process of the presidential
election in Armenia overlapped with several interesting visits. CSTO
Secretary General Borduzha and the Russian minister of defense Shoygu
visited Armenia. Then, at the end of the campaign, the chief of
general staff of the Russian armed forces visited Armenia. Over this
period the Russian military base 102 held a vibrant mountain exercise
involving tanks and reconnaissance. On March 1 General Shamanov,
commander of airborne landing troops, stated at the meeting of the
Russian ministry of defense that the Russian airborne landing troops
will be ready to be used for more effective crisis handling in CSTO
states. Shamanov mentioned Armenia, Tajikistan and Kirgizstan.
The picture will be complete on March 12. Serzh Sargsyan's visit to
Moscow with a tight schedule is planned on that day, and the head
of the CIS Institute Constantine Zatulin has stated than the visit
will not be that of a protocol. Obviously, Moscow has launched a
psychological offensive on Serzh Sargsyan ahead of his visit.
In Moscow Serzh Sargsyan will have to say no to Putin several times:
Customs Union, Eurasian Union, the airport of Stepanakert. The Russian
military activity during the presidential campaign and after it prompts
that Russia is planning a military blitzkrieg to prevent or compensate
for the political and technological retreat. The Armenian-Azerbaijani
front and the airport of Stepanakert may have a core role in this plan.
The airport could be used as a bait to cause escalation upon the
first flight from this airport. It is possible that the first flight
with Serzh Sargsyan on board will be spared as an advance of honor
in return for agreement. Will Serzh Sargsyan resist the temptation
of the flight of honor? He announced last year to fly on May 9.
Ostensibly, last year Serzh Sargsyan thought it would be an eagle's
flight. Now he is convinced that Russia will not allow anyone fly
and feel like an eagle in the region. A price will have to be paid
for that. However, not Serzh Sargsyan but Armenia and Artsakh will
have to pay this price. De facto, Armenia and Artsakh will become
the arsenal of the Russian army.
The West congratulates Serzh Sargsyan to keep him from temptation and
help him say three important nos. Certainly, the West does not want
to save Armenia and Artsakh from the destiny of arsenal of Russian
imperialism but to prevent its geopolitical defeat in the region.
The point of view that the West may help democratic forces
come to government in Armenia and thus prevent its geopolitical
defeat fundamentally is hypothetically a more rational proposal of
partnership from sovereign Armenia to the West considering the common
interests. However, the scope of democratic forces in Armenia is quite
uncertain, so are their political priorities and approaches. Besides,
the current military, political and economic situation is such that
the West will be able to change government in Armenia only with the
agreement of Russia or at least if the latter refrains. Otherwise, the
probability of a clash will grow, which means that Russian dominance
will grow.
The West was unable to achieve a solution in Armenia, which is not
a surprise because in this state of balancing the Armenian society
must achieve a solution first. The problem is that the society as such
does not exist. So, in order to find a solution the society needs to
integrate its different component into a whole body.
HAKOB BADALYAN
15:22 05/03/2013
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index.php/eng/0/comments/view/29182
Congratulations on the official result of the presidential election
coming from foreign countries in such abundance are explained by the
Armenian public as a sign of the wish of all the great powers to have
a weak, illegitimate president which is why they rush to congratulate
Serzh Sargsyan who is believed by the greater part of the society to
have been reelected through rigged elections.
The confidence or at least the doubts about fraudulence of elections
are grounded. At the same time, it is clear that a government
lacking domestic legitimacy that seeks for legitimacy abroad is
more controllable, so the geopolitical centers will try to use this
circumstance in their relations with Armenia.
In the current period, foreign congratulations have more significant
reasons. Economically, socially and especially politically Armenia
is in such a situation when the effect or viability of domestic
legitimacy need not be overestimated in the relations with the world
neither in a short-term nor a medium-term perspective. It does not
mean not to attach any importance to this circumstance. Simply there
is no need to overestimate. I repeat at least in a short-term or a
medium-term perspective.
The geopolitical centers have so many levers of influence on the
Armenian government that they may ignore domestic legitimacy.
Moreover, in regard to controllability, it would be more influential
to hang the congratulation in the air rather than to send it in
advance. Moreover, advance is risky insofar as the interests of the
West and Russia are opposed.
The abundance of congratulations is explained by this rivalry. Now the
congratulations ensure "uncontrollability", not controllability of
Serzh Sargsyan. In other words, an attempt is made to give Sargsyan
and his administration a status of legitimacy to leave him less
controllable.
The impression that Russia refrained from the presidential election
was only a superficial impression. The process of the presidential
election in Armenia overlapped with several interesting visits. CSTO
Secretary General Borduzha and the Russian minister of defense Shoygu
visited Armenia. Then, at the end of the campaign, the chief of
general staff of the Russian armed forces visited Armenia. Over this
period the Russian military base 102 held a vibrant mountain exercise
involving tanks and reconnaissance. On March 1 General Shamanov,
commander of airborne landing troops, stated at the meeting of the
Russian ministry of defense that the Russian airborne landing troops
will be ready to be used for more effective crisis handling in CSTO
states. Shamanov mentioned Armenia, Tajikistan and Kirgizstan.
The picture will be complete on March 12. Serzh Sargsyan's visit to
Moscow with a tight schedule is planned on that day, and the head
of the CIS Institute Constantine Zatulin has stated than the visit
will not be that of a protocol. Obviously, Moscow has launched a
psychological offensive on Serzh Sargsyan ahead of his visit.
In Moscow Serzh Sargsyan will have to say no to Putin several times:
Customs Union, Eurasian Union, the airport of Stepanakert. The Russian
military activity during the presidential campaign and after it prompts
that Russia is planning a military blitzkrieg to prevent or compensate
for the political and technological retreat. The Armenian-Azerbaijani
front and the airport of Stepanakert may have a core role in this plan.
The airport could be used as a bait to cause escalation upon the
first flight from this airport. It is possible that the first flight
with Serzh Sargsyan on board will be spared as an advance of honor
in return for agreement. Will Serzh Sargsyan resist the temptation
of the flight of honor? He announced last year to fly on May 9.
Ostensibly, last year Serzh Sargsyan thought it would be an eagle's
flight. Now he is convinced that Russia will not allow anyone fly
and feel like an eagle in the region. A price will have to be paid
for that. However, not Serzh Sargsyan but Armenia and Artsakh will
have to pay this price. De facto, Armenia and Artsakh will become
the arsenal of the Russian army.
The West congratulates Serzh Sargsyan to keep him from temptation and
help him say three important nos. Certainly, the West does not want
to save Armenia and Artsakh from the destiny of arsenal of Russian
imperialism but to prevent its geopolitical defeat in the region.
The point of view that the West may help democratic forces
come to government in Armenia and thus prevent its geopolitical
defeat fundamentally is hypothetically a more rational proposal of
partnership from sovereign Armenia to the West considering the common
interests. However, the scope of democratic forces in Armenia is quite
uncertain, so are their political priorities and approaches. Besides,
the current military, political and economic situation is such that
the West will be able to change government in Armenia only with the
agreement of Russia or at least if the latter refrains. Otherwise, the
probability of a clash will grow, which means that Russian dominance
will grow.
The West was unable to achieve a solution in Armenia, which is not
a surprise because in this state of balancing the Armenian society
must achieve a solution first. The problem is that the society as such
does not exist. So, in order to find a solution the society needs to
integrate its different component into a whole body.