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MANVEL SARGSYAN: THE USE OF THE 1988 SCENARIO IS THE PLEDGE OF REPUBLICANS' REMOVAL FROM POWER IN ARMENIA
ArmInfo's Interview with Director of the Center for National and
International Studies Manvel Sargsyan
by David Stepanyan
ARMINFO
Thursday, March 7, 10:21
How would you assess the Feb 18 presidential election?
No free elections are possible in Armenia as long as its government
consists of oligarchs. This time everything happened the same way,
and the only difference was that most parties had initially assessed
the situation correctly. And the parties, which took part in the
May 2012 parliamentary election and criticized all those saying it
was senseless to participate in the election as election results
had already been predetermined by the authorities, came to the same
conclusion themselves before the presidential election. Thus, over
the past 15 years the results of all elections in Armenia have been
disputed, and during the Feb 2013 presidential election the parties,
politicians and candidates disputed the legitimacy of the election
itself. Such elections cannot be considered legitimate.
If Serzh Sargsyan had won the election legally, could he have
"dethroned" at least the most odious oligarchs?
I do not think so. This scenario is not applicable to either our
government system in general or Serzh Sargsyan personally. In such
elections voters have no say. It is the regime who decides how many
votes it needs to go on.
How effective is Raffi Hovannisian's protest policy in the soft power
spirit and what results may the visits to the regions, non-recognition
of the election results and rallies give?
There are new elements in Raffi Hovannisian's approaches to the
post-election situation if compared with the situation of 2008. First,
the kind and soft tone of the protest movement differs from the
black-white tones of similar movements of the previous years. Today
the tone of the talk with the power is absolutely different and the
"revolution of shaking hands" in some way reflects the atmosphere of
this tone. Moreover, the new wave of protest has in fact refuted the
party top, which has also become nonsense in our political reality.
Today one man is standing on the top and demands hauling down all the
party colours, in such a way giving a grounding for only the civilian
approach to the situation. I don't know how long such an approach will
work, as the traditional approaches have already started ruining it.
Under what scenario do you think the change of power is possible?
Any protest movement has a leader who protests against something
and gathers people around himself. Today it is not clear how
Raffi Hovannisian is going to give power back to the people. The
ruling Republican Party of Armenia must be removed from power from
below. We must create lots of interim committees, which will form an
alternative to the regime as was the case in 1988. Such committees
begin to gradually push the regime out of power. For example, all
people living in a town can gather and dismiss their mayor. If this
is done on a general basis, the regime finally finds itself hanging in
the air, with the police and the army having taken the people's side.
Analyzing the statements and the logic of Raffi Hovannisian's
actions, one can come to the conclusion that he is going to apply
that strategy...
This is why I state that there is no other alternative. If this
scenario is already going on, one should expect the abovementioned
developments. Levon Ter-Petrosyan preferred starting with his own
party because his goal was to take power. Hovannisian's goal is
first to dethrone the anti-constitutional regime and then to conduct
free elections. What happened in Georgia and Ukraine were semi-coups
with protesting people involved, while the events in Poland, Chile,
Serbia and SAR were classic examples of nationwide movements. I see
no alternative for us.
Is there a possibility that Raffi Hovannisian will make an arrangement
with the power?
I do not think it is possible. What may Raffi Hovannisian arrange with
the power about? Our power will never make an arrangement with him.
The power has already refused all his proposals.
May the Prosperous Armenia Party (PAP) once again become the Trojan
horse put by the authorities under the movement headed by Raffi
Hovannisian?
Certainly, it may. The vacuum was created at the latest presidential
election just with the help and thanks to this party, which has already
played the part of the Trojan horse. Of course, this is quite possible
today as well.
Almost all the congratulatory messages of the leaders of the USA,
the UK and France to Serzh Sargsyan contain a call for a change in
the status quo in Karabakh and progress in the Armenian-Turkish
normalization process. Sargsyan has already played his role by
initiating an unsuccessful process with Turkey. What else do they
expect from him?
The call for a change in the status quo in Nagorno-Karabakh and
progress in Armenian-Turkish relations contained in the congratulatory
messages addressed by the presidents of the US, the UK and France to
Serzh Sargsyan has only one implication - these countries will continue
their relations with Armenia. If tomorrow Serzh Sargsyan is removed,
they will send similar messages to the new president. The opinion that
Serzh Sargsyan is pro-Russian while Raffi Hovannisian is pro-American
is just a fiction. Almost all great powers have interests in Armenia,
and those interests are not always antagonistic.
Raffi Hovannisian has promised that Armenia will recognize
Nagorno-Karabakh's independence, but the incumbent authorities evade
it. Doesn't it demonstrate the sympathies of the West or Russia in
the authorities' favor?
We don't know what the US and Russia think about this. Russia keeps
hinting that it is high time for Armenia to recognize Nagorno-Karabakh
but the Armenian authorities are taking time in hope that they will
outlive the conflict as their predecessors did.
What serious changes can one expect from Armenia's recognition of
the NKR?
Once recognized by Armenia, Nagorno-Karabakh will get quite a different
role in international relations. The OSCE will have no more say on it,
and it will no longer be part of the Helsinki Act. The reluctance to
change something is an unserious approach. The direct evidence of it
is Northern Cyprus and its recognition by Turkey, due to which Cyprus
is no longer part of the Helsinki Act.
ArmInfo's Interview with Director of the Center for National and
International Studies Manvel Sargsyan
by David Stepanyan
ARMINFO
Thursday, March 7, 10:21
How would you assess the Feb 18 presidential election?
No free elections are possible in Armenia as long as its government
consists of oligarchs. This time everything happened the same way,
and the only difference was that most parties had initially assessed
the situation correctly. And the parties, which took part in the
May 2012 parliamentary election and criticized all those saying it
was senseless to participate in the election as election results
had already been predetermined by the authorities, came to the same
conclusion themselves before the presidential election. Thus, over
the past 15 years the results of all elections in Armenia have been
disputed, and during the Feb 2013 presidential election the parties,
politicians and candidates disputed the legitimacy of the election
itself. Such elections cannot be considered legitimate.
If Serzh Sargsyan had won the election legally, could he have
"dethroned" at least the most odious oligarchs?
I do not think so. This scenario is not applicable to either our
government system in general or Serzh Sargsyan personally. In such
elections voters have no say. It is the regime who decides how many
votes it needs to go on.
How effective is Raffi Hovannisian's protest policy in the soft power
spirit and what results may the visits to the regions, non-recognition
of the election results and rallies give?
There are new elements in Raffi Hovannisian's approaches to the
post-election situation if compared with the situation of 2008. First,
the kind and soft tone of the protest movement differs from the
black-white tones of similar movements of the previous years. Today
the tone of the talk with the power is absolutely different and the
"revolution of shaking hands" in some way reflects the atmosphere of
this tone. Moreover, the new wave of protest has in fact refuted the
party top, which has also become nonsense in our political reality.
Today one man is standing on the top and demands hauling down all the
party colours, in such a way giving a grounding for only the civilian
approach to the situation. I don't know how long such an approach will
work, as the traditional approaches have already started ruining it.
Under what scenario do you think the change of power is possible?
Any protest movement has a leader who protests against something
and gathers people around himself. Today it is not clear how
Raffi Hovannisian is going to give power back to the people. The
ruling Republican Party of Armenia must be removed from power from
below. We must create lots of interim committees, which will form an
alternative to the regime as was the case in 1988. Such committees
begin to gradually push the regime out of power. For example, all
people living in a town can gather and dismiss their mayor. If this
is done on a general basis, the regime finally finds itself hanging in
the air, with the police and the army having taken the people's side.
Analyzing the statements and the logic of Raffi Hovannisian's
actions, one can come to the conclusion that he is going to apply
that strategy...
This is why I state that there is no other alternative. If this
scenario is already going on, one should expect the abovementioned
developments. Levon Ter-Petrosyan preferred starting with his own
party because his goal was to take power. Hovannisian's goal is
first to dethrone the anti-constitutional regime and then to conduct
free elections. What happened in Georgia and Ukraine were semi-coups
with protesting people involved, while the events in Poland, Chile,
Serbia and SAR were classic examples of nationwide movements. I see
no alternative for us.
Is there a possibility that Raffi Hovannisian will make an arrangement
with the power?
I do not think it is possible. What may Raffi Hovannisian arrange with
the power about? Our power will never make an arrangement with him.
The power has already refused all his proposals.
May the Prosperous Armenia Party (PAP) once again become the Trojan
horse put by the authorities under the movement headed by Raffi
Hovannisian?
Certainly, it may. The vacuum was created at the latest presidential
election just with the help and thanks to this party, which has already
played the part of the Trojan horse. Of course, this is quite possible
today as well.
Almost all the congratulatory messages of the leaders of the USA,
the UK and France to Serzh Sargsyan contain a call for a change in
the status quo in Karabakh and progress in the Armenian-Turkish
normalization process. Sargsyan has already played his role by
initiating an unsuccessful process with Turkey. What else do they
expect from him?
The call for a change in the status quo in Nagorno-Karabakh and
progress in Armenian-Turkish relations contained in the congratulatory
messages addressed by the presidents of the US, the UK and France to
Serzh Sargsyan has only one implication - these countries will continue
their relations with Armenia. If tomorrow Serzh Sargsyan is removed,
they will send similar messages to the new president. The opinion that
Serzh Sargsyan is pro-Russian while Raffi Hovannisian is pro-American
is just a fiction. Almost all great powers have interests in Armenia,
and those interests are not always antagonistic.
Raffi Hovannisian has promised that Armenia will recognize
Nagorno-Karabakh's independence, but the incumbent authorities evade
it. Doesn't it demonstrate the sympathies of the West or Russia in
the authorities' favor?
We don't know what the US and Russia think about this. Russia keeps
hinting that it is high time for Armenia to recognize Nagorno-Karabakh
but the Armenian authorities are taking time in hope that they will
outlive the conflict as their predecessors did.
What serious changes can one expect from Armenia's recognition of
the NKR?
Once recognized by Armenia, Nagorno-Karabakh will get quite a different
role in international relations. The OSCE will have no more say on it,
and it will no longer be part of the Helsinki Act. The reluctance to
change something is an unserious approach. The direct evidence of it
is Northern Cyprus and its recognition by Turkey, due to which Cyprus
is no longer part of the Helsinki Act.