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Today's Zaman, Turkey
March 10 2013
Post-election Armenia and the Karabakh question
10 March 2013 /SÃ`REYYA YÄ°Ä?Ä°T*
Elections are denoted by adversarial campaigns with the result
signifying an end to divisions and the beginning of the process of
constructing national unity.
The past two presidential elections in Armenia have resulted in
acrimonious accusations of electoral fraud and a general sense of
injustice. Last month witnessed the re-election of President Serzh
Sarksyan, with the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe
(OSCE) criticizing the participation of so many civil servants in the
campaign of the incumbent, leading to difficulties in separating the
activities of the state with those of the ruling party. Therefore, the
election had major deficiencies, which must be acted upon.
In this post-election period, Armenia faces significant domestic and
regional challenges. On the home front, despite recent economic
growth, which has led to lower unemployment and a decrease in poverty,
the country remains poor in regional terms, with transparency a
pressing issue coupled with judicial independence. For Armenia to
fulfill its economic potential these hurdles must be overcome in order
for citizens to be able to purchase the homes and cars that President
Sarksyan promised during his campaign.
Energy is another topic that invites heated discussions. The Metsamor
Nuclear Power Plant located approximately 30 kilometers away from the
capital, Yerevan, was to shut down in 2006. Not only is it still
operating, but it contributes almost 40 percent of Armenia's
electricity. After safety checks it was announced last November that
the lifespan would be extended to 2026, with the government estimating
the cost of a new, 1,000-megawatt unit at $5 billion with a Russian
company favored for the construction. Armenian environmentalists
oppose such plans, fearing that the country -- due to a lack of
farsighted alternative energy sources -- is sitting on a time bomb.
Internationally, Armenian foreign policy has held steadfastly to
strengthening and deepening its special allied relationship with
Russia. This was reinforced in January by the head of the Collective
Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) visiting Yerevan and declaring
that Russia and Armenia are to establish joint defense enterprises.
The visit included a large delegation of Russian arms-industry
managers who sought to integrate Armenia's military-industrial complex
with Russia.
Despite the historic link to Russia, Armenia attaches great importance
to strengthening its friendly partnership with the United States, due
to its diaspora in the country. Nearer to home, the policy of
integration with European nations, especially the EU, is high on the
agenda. Last month Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian highlighted the
progress achieved in implementing the Eastern Partnership (EaP) and
emphasized the hope of concluding negotiations over the Deep and
Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) before autumn.
Whilst Armenian foreign policy desires normal relations with
neighbors, seeking to establish relations based on open borders and
partnership, it has been unsuccessful in this endeavor. Relations with
Azerbaijan and Turkey are nonexistent due to Armenia's occupation of
Nagorno-Karabakh and its uncompromising interpretation of the tragic
events of 1915. Only this week, the OSCE Minsk Group expressed
concerns relating to civilian flights to Nagorno-Karabakh and the
recent violence on the line of contact, declaring they would travel in
the coming weeks to the region to discuss with Presidents Sarksyan and
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev the next steps aimed at reaching a
peaceful resolution of the conflict.
Within the region Armenia has already lost out on energy
infrastructure, with the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan and the
Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum gas pipelines avoiding Armenian territory. It
faces the same situation with transport infrastructure with the
Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway project forecast to be completed by the end
of 2013. Armenia has sought alternatives to rail development through
further cooperation with Iran, with which Armenia already cooperates
in the fields of energy and communication.
Previous bilateral discussions had concentrated on a pipeline to
deliver Iranian oil products to Armenia, and a major hydroelectric
station on the Aras River marking the Armenian-Iranian border. To this
has been added the plan to build a railway connecting the two
countries which is estimated to cost $2 billion. In 2009, Iran offered
a $400 million loan for the railway, which indicated Armenia would
have to pay for the lion's share as it possesses very little rail
infrastructure in its southeastern region, which borders Iran. Given
current Armenian finances, the railway project will remain just that,
a proposed project.
Last November, Turkey proposed to the Minsk Group the Integrated
Transportation Corridors Project, which involves a two-prong approach.
First, it concentrated on linking Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan and
Russia through repairing unused railways and building new ones.
Second, Turkey's railway links with Armenia could also be operational
alongside the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway line. Furthermore, running
parallel to the railway, a newly constructed road would also help
increase commercial and human traffic between the two countries.
The proposal considers the creation of mass housing projects along the
transport routes so that a new regional hub can emerge. Such a plan
could lead to a revival of economic activity and assist locals in
terms of jobs, trade, investment and tourism. The Turkish proposal
also looks forward to linking the Caucasus to both Europe and Asia via
the Marmaray Project, connecting a rail network between London and
Beijing, thus extending the ancient Silk Road westwards and northwards
all the way to the North Sea. In the final analysis, unless and until
Armenia offers a fair and just solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh issue,
it remains doomed to regional isolation and overdependence on Russia.
*Dr. Süreyya YiÄ?it is Eurasia advisor at the Center for Middle Eastern
Strategic Studies (ORSAM) and a lecturer at İstanbul Aydın University.
http://www.todayszaman.com/news-309262-post-election-armenia-and-the-karabakh-question.html
March 10 2013
Post-election Armenia and the Karabakh question
10 March 2013 /SÃ`REYYA YÄ°Ä?Ä°T*
Elections are denoted by adversarial campaigns with the result
signifying an end to divisions and the beginning of the process of
constructing national unity.
The past two presidential elections in Armenia have resulted in
acrimonious accusations of electoral fraud and a general sense of
injustice. Last month witnessed the re-election of President Serzh
Sarksyan, with the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe
(OSCE) criticizing the participation of so many civil servants in the
campaign of the incumbent, leading to difficulties in separating the
activities of the state with those of the ruling party. Therefore, the
election had major deficiencies, which must be acted upon.
In this post-election period, Armenia faces significant domestic and
regional challenges. On the home front, despite recent economic
growth, which has led to lower unemployment and a decrease in poverty,
the country remains poor in regional terms, with transparency a
pressing issue coupled with judicial independence. For Armenia to
fulfill its economic potential these hurdles must be overcome in order
for citizens to be able to purchase the homes and cars that President
Sarksyan promised during his campaign.
Energy is another topic that invites heated discussions. The Metsamor
Nuclear Power Plant located approximately 30 kilometers away from the
capital, Yerevan, was to shut down in 2006. Not only is it still
operating, but it contributes almost 40 percent of Armenia's
electricity. After safety checks it was announced last November that
the lifespan would be extended to 2026, with the government estimating
the cost of a new, 1,000-megawatt unit at $5 billion with a Russian
company favored for the construction. Armenian environmentalists
oppose such plans, fearing that the country -- due to a lack of
farsighted alternative energy sources -- is sitting on a time bomb.
Internationally, Armenian foreign policy has held steadfastly to
strengthening and deepening its special allied relationship with
Russia. This was reinforced in January by the head of the Collective
Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) visiting Yerevan and declaring
that Russia and Armenia are to establish joint defense enterprises.
The visit included a large delegation of Russian arms-industry
managers who sought to integrate Armenia's military-industrial complex
with Russia.
Despite the historic link to Russia, Armenia attaches great importance
to strengthening its friendly partnership with the United States, due
to its diaspora in the country. Nearer to home, the policy of
integration with European nations, especially the EU, is high on the
agenda. Last month Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian highlighted the
progress achieved in implementing the Eastern Partnership (EaP) and
emphasized the hope of concluding negotiations over the Deep and
Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) before autumn.
Whilst Armenian foreign policy desires normal relations with
neighbors, seeking to establish relations based on open borders and
partnership, it has been unsuccessful in this endeavor. Relations with
Azerbaijan and Turkey are nonexistent due to Armenia's occupation of
Nagorno-Karabakh and its uncompromising interpretation of the tragic
events of 1915. Only this week, the OSCE Minsk Group expressed
concerns relating to civilian flights to Nagorno-Karabakh and the
recent violence on the line of contact, declaring they would travel in
the coming weeks to the region to discuss with Presidents Sarksyan and
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev the next steps aimed at reaching a
peaceful resolution of the conflict.
Within the region Armenia has already lost out on energy
infrastructure, with the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan and the
Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum gas pipelines avoiding Armenian territory. It
faces the same situation with transport infrastructure with the
Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway project forecast to be completed by the end
of 2013. Armenia has sought alternatives to rail development through
further cooperation with Iran, with which Armenia already cooperates
in the fields of energy and communication.
Previous bilateral discussions had concentrated on a pipeline to
deliver Iranian oil products to Armenia, and a major hydroelectric
station on the Aras River marking the Armenian-Iranian border. To this
has been added the plan to build a railway connecting the two
countries which is estimated to cost $2 billion. In 2009, Iran offered
a $400 million loan for the railway, which indicated Armenia would
have to pay for the lion's share as it possesses very little rail
infrastructure in its southeastern region, which borders Iran. Given
current Armenian finances, the railway project will remain just that,
a proposed project.
Last November, Turkey proposed to the Minsk Group the Integrated
Transportation Corridors Project, which involves a two-prong approach.
First, it concentrated on linking Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan and
Russia through repairing unused railways and building new ones.
Second, Turkey's railway links with Armenia could also be operational
alongside the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway line. Furthermore, running
parallel to the railway, a newly constructed road would also help
increase commercial and human traffic between the two countries.
The proposal considers the creation of mass housing projects along the
transport routes so that a new regional hub can emerge. Such a plan
could lead to a revival of economic activity and assist locals in
terms of jobs, trade, investment and tourism. The Turkish proposal
also looks forward to linking the Caucasus to both Europe and Asia via
the Marmaray Project, connecting a rail network between London and
Beijing, thus extending the ancient Silk Road westwards and northwards
all the way to the North Sea. In the final analysis, unless and until
Armenia offers a fair and just solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh issue,
it remains doomed to regional isolation and overdependence on Russia.
*Dr. Süreyya YiÄ?it is Eurasia advisor at the Center for Middle Eastern
Strategic Studies (ORSAM) and a lecturer at İstanbul Aydın University.
http://www.todayszaman.com/news-309262-post-election-armenia-and-the-karabakh-question.html