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WHAT WILL PUTIN DO IF SARGSYAN SAYS NO?
Naira Hayrumyan
16:12 11/03/2013
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index.php/eng/0/comments/view/29238
Serzh Sargsyan's visit to Moscow is expected to be a u-turn in the
Armenian-Russian relations, as well as the definition of the place
of Armenia in the world.
Ostensibly, tomorrow Vladimir Putin will propose a format of
cooperation in the Customs Union (the Eurasian Union is silenced for
the time being), as well as deployment of CSTO rapid reaction forces
to defend "civil flights from the airport of Stepanakert".
In the negotiations with Victor Yanukovich Putin referred to the gas
topic, proposing to lower the prices set during Timoshenko's tenure
in exchange for post-soviet integration. After the meeting Yanukovich
announced about some new formats of cooperation with the Customs
Union, as if persuading his people to cede something to Russia to
satisfy its ambitions.
In the case of Armenia Putin cannot use the gas whip similarly. First,
the price of gas has been raised to the social maximum, and if raised a
little more, consumption will decline. Second, in the current domestic
situation it may result in a violent removal of the regime.
Therefore, in the conversation with Armenia Putin will most probably
use other methods. Now the integration of Armenia with the Customs
Union is not so important to Russia, which seems less possible than
in the case of Ukraine. It is important for Russia to take up the
settlement of the Karabakh issue, deploy troops in Karabakh and keep
under control the border of Karabakh with Iran.
In this context, the main topic of the negotiations will be deployment
of CSTO troops in Karabakh as a guarantee of flights from the airport
of Stepanakert. Putin may suggest that Serzh Sargsyan recognize
Karabakh in exchange for the pro-European bias.
Analysts are comparing the pluses and minuses of this step. Karabakh
wants recognition but is it desirable to join Abkhazia and South
Ossetia which were barely recognized by Russia and a couple of Latin
American states? Moreover, neither Abkhazia, nor South Ossetia is
satisfied with the Russian protectorate, especially economically. The
same will await Karabakh.
On the other hand, what will Russia undertake if Serzh Sargsyan
disagrees with the proposal to deploy airborne landing at the airport
of Stepanakert and to join the Customs Union? There are levers of
influence but as the Russians say the Satan is not as scary as they
say. Moreover, Serzh Sargsyan will speak on behalf of his nation. It
is not going to be a private conversation.
An open conversation with people on Putin's persistent proposals may
be a good argument in Sargsyan's conversation with the head of Russia.
Although, one can go there and agree and even sign some documents and
make people face the fact. It is true that later it is possible to
end up like Timoshenko who is now tried for signing illegal agreements
behind people's back.
Naira Hayrumyan
16:12 11/03/2013
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index.php/eng/0/comments/view/29238
Serzh Sargsyan's visit to Moscow is expected to be a u-turn in the
Armenian-Russian relations, as well as the definition of the place
of Armenia in the world.
Ostensibly, tomorrow Vladimir Putin will propose a format of
cooperation in the Customs Union (the Eurasian Union is silenced for
the time being), as well as deployment of CSTO rapid reaction forces
to defend "civil flights from the airport of Stepanakert".
In the negotiations with Victor Yanukovich Putin referred to the gas
topic, proposing to lower the prices set during Timoshenko's tenure
in exchange for post-soviet integration. After the meeting Yanukovich
announced about some new formats of cooperation with the Customs
Union, as if persuading his people to cede something to Russia to
satisfy its ambitions.
In the case of Armenia Putin cannot use the gas whip similarly. First,
the price of gas has been raised to the social maximum, and if raised a
little more, consumption will decline. Second, in the current domestic
situation it may result in a violent removal of the regime.
Therefore, in the conversation with Armenia Putin will most probably
use other methods. Now the integration of Armenia with the Customs
Union is not so important to Russia, which seems less possible than
in the case of Ukraine. It is important for Russia to take up the
settlement of the Karabakh issue, deploy troops in Karabakh and keep
under control the border of Karabakh with Iran.
In this context, the main topic of the negotiations will be deployment
of CSTO troops in Karabakh as a guarantee of flights from the airport
of Stepanakert. Putin may suggest that Serzh Sargsyan recognize
Karabakh in exchange for the pro-European bias.
Analysts are comparing the pluses and minuses of this step. Karabakh
wants recognition but is it desirable to join Abkhazia and South
Ossetia which were barely recognized by Russia and a couple of Latin
American states? Moreover, neither Abkhazia, nor South Ossetia is
satisfied with the Russian protectorate, especially economically. The
same will await Karabakh.
On the other hand, what will Russia undertake if Serzh Sargsyan
disagrees with the proposal to deploy airborne landing at the airport
of Stepanakert and to join the Customs Union? There are levers of
influence but as the Russians say the Satan is not as scary as they
say. Moreover, Serzh Sargsyan will speak on behalf of his nation. It
is not going to be a private conversation.
An open conversation with people on Putin's persistent proposals may
be a good argument in Sargsyan's conversation with the head of Russia.
Although, one can go there and agree and even sign some documents and
make people face the fact. It is true that later it is possible to
end up like Timoshenko who is now tried for signing illegal agreements
behind people's back.