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ARMENIA: YEREVAN KEEN TO OPT OUT OF NEW RUSSIAN-LED BLOC
EurasiaNet.org, NY
March 13 2013
March 13, 2013 - 2:18pm, by Emil Danielyan
Despite its long-standing close ties with and strong dependence on
Russia, Armenia looks set to avoid joining a new Russian-led union
of former Soviet republics.
Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan, who won a second term in a
disputed election in February, has successfully navigated apparent
Russian pressures and moved his country closer to the West - the
European Union, in particular - while maintaining, and even deepening,
Armenia's military alliance with Russia. After a meeting with Russia's
President Vladimir Putin on March 12, Sargsyan gave no indication
that his administration's multi-vector policy will change.
The press services of the two leaders announced in early March that
the talks at Putin's Novo-Ogaryovo residence near Moscow would touch
upon "integration processes" in the former Soviet Union. It was a
clear reference to Armenia's possible accession to the Customs Union
of Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus. But the talks themselves did not
appear to produce a breakthrough on the issue.
Putin makes no secret of his hopes to turn this trade bloc eventually
into a closely-knit Eurasian Union of loyal ex-Soviet states,
a grouping that Kremlin critics regard as an attempt to partially
recreate the USSR. The Kremlin-linked speakers of both houses of
Russia's parliament promoted the idea during separate visits to
Yerevan in July last year.
Putin and Sargsyan reportedly discussed the possibility of Armenian
membership in the Customs Union during their three meetings in 2012.
Armenian leaders gave no such promises in their public statements
made after those talks. Armenian media commentators speculate that
Putin wants a final answer from Yerevan soon.
Official Russian and Armenian sources did not report or hint at any
agreements on the matter after the Novo-Ogaryovo meeting. Putin and
Sargsyan similarly did not mention it in their televised opening
remarks, and no statements were issued following their discussions.
Putin merely praised Russia's "special relations" with Armenia, saying
they are "successfully developing" in both economic and political
areas. "We have big, promising, good joint investment plans," he said.
"If there were even tentative agreements on the Customs Union, they
would have probably been reflected in the official press releases on
the meeting," commented Alexander Markarov, a political scientist
heading the Armenian branch of the Moscow-based Commonwealth of
Independent States Institute.
"In all likelihood, there were no major changes in the two sides'
positions on this issue and Serzh Sargsyan again succeeded in at
least winning time," the Yerevan-based news service 1in.am agreed in
a commentary.
Over the past year, Armenian leaders have publicly objected to joining
the Customs Union, arguing that their landlocked country has no common
borders with Russia, Kazakhstan or Belarus. Citing Russia's Kaliningrad
exclave, Viktor Khristenko, the Russian head of the Customs Union's
executive body, has questioned this line of reasoning.
In a February interview with the Russian daily Moskovskie Novosti,
Armenian Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan came up with another argument
against Customs Union membership - that Armenia has a more liberal
trade regime than any of the union's three member states and lacks
vast natural resources.
Yerevan is reluctant to acknowledge publicly another, arguably more
important reason: joining the Russian-led union would essentially
preclude the signing of a comprehensive Association Agreement between
Armenia and the European Union. A key element of that agreement is the
creation of a "deep and comprehensive free trade area," which envisages
not only the lifting of all trade barriers, but also harmonization
of Armenian and EU economic laws and regulations. A spokesperson
for Catherine Ashton, the EU's foreign and security policy chief,
told RFE/RL in December 2012 that Armenian entry into the Moscow-led
Customs Union "would not be compatible" with the Association Agreement.
The Armenian government has since continued to express strong interest
in concluding its association talks with the EU in time for a planned
November 2013 summit in Vilnius on the EU's Eastern Partnership program
for six ex-Soviet states. Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian discussed
preparations for the summit at a March 7 meeting with Philippe Lefort,
the EU's special envoy for the South Caucasus.
The Armenian push for integration with the EU reflects President
Sargsyan's broader strategy of complementing the alliance with Russia
with closer partnership with the West.
During his first term, Sargsyan earned plaudits in Western capitals
for stepping up cooperation with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization
and embarking on a US-backed rapprochement with Turkey.
Analysts believe this is one reason why US President Barack Obama
and other Western leaders congratulated him on his disputed reelection.
Remarkably, there have been few indications of Russian discontent with
this policy. Russian policy-makers might be safe in the knowledge that,
with no solution to the conflict with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh
in sight, Armenia will remain heavily reliant on military ties with
Russia in the foreseeable future.
Sargsyan was instrumental in securing a 2010 deal that extended
the presence of Russian troops in Armenia until 2044, and Putin has
responded accordingly.
In January, he authorized his government to sign a new Russian-Armenian
defense accord that calls for joint arms manufacturing. Russia's
defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, and chief of the General Staff,
Colonel General Valery Gerasimov, discussed the planned deal during
subsequent trips to Armenia. Sargsyan thanked Putin on March 12 for
"good progress" in defense cooperation.
But appearances can be deceiving, cautioned analyst Markarov.
"Armenia has been trying to circumvent the Customs Union, while
favoring other, bilateral formats of cooperation with Russia," he
said. "It has to listen to Russia more than any other foreign power.
But listening doesn't mean always obeying."
Editor's note: Emil Danielyan is a freelance journalist based in
Yerevan.
http://www.eurasianet.org/node/66688
EurasiaNet.org, NY
March 13 2013
March 13, 2013 - 2:18pm, by Emil Danielyan
Despite its long-standing close ties with and strong dependence on
Russia, Armenia looks set to avoid joining a new Russian-led union
of former Soviet republics.
Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan, who won a second term in a
disputed election in February, has successfully navigated apparent
Russian pressures and moved his country closer to the West - the
European Union, in particular - while maintaining, and even deepening,
Armenia's military alliance with Russia. After a meeting with Russia's
President Vladimir Putin on March 12, Sargsyan gave no indication
that his administration's multi-vector policy will change.
The press services of the two leaders announced in early March that
the talks at Putin's Novo-Ogaryovo residence near Moscow would touch
upon "integration processes" in the former Soviet Union. It was a
clear reference to Armenia's possible accession to the Customs Union
of Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus. But the talks themselves did not
appear to produce a breakthrough on the issue.
Putin makes no secret of his hopes to turn this trade bloc eventually
into a closely-knit Eurasian Union of loyal ex-Soviet states,
a grouping that Kremlin critics regard as an attempt to partially
recreate the USSR. The Kremlin-linked speakers of both houses of
Russia's parliament promoted the idea during separate visits to
Yerevan in July last year.
Putin and Sargsyan reportedly discussed the possibility of Armenian
membership in the Customs Union during their three meetings in 2012.
Armenian leaders gave no such promises in their public statements
made after those talks. Armenian media commentators speculate that
Putin wants a final answer from Yerevan soon.
Official Russian and Armenian sources did not report or hint at any
agreements on the matter after the Novo-Ogaryovo meeting. Putin and
Sargsyan similarly did not mention it in their televised opening
remarks, and no statements were issued following their discussions.
Putin merely praised Russia's "special relations" with Armenia, saying
they are "successfully developing" in both economic and political
areas. "We have big, promising, good joint investment plans," he said.
"If there were even tentative agreements on the Customs Union, they
would have probably been reflected in the official press releases on
the meeting," commented Alexander Markarov, a political scientist
heading the Armenian branch of the Moscow-based Commonwealth of
Independent States Institute.
"In all likelihood, there were no major changes in the two sides'
positions on this issue and Serzh Sargsyan again succeeded in at
least winning time," the Yerevan-based news service 1in.am agreed in
a commentary.
Over the past year, Armenian leaders have publicly objected to joining
the Customs Union, arguing that their landlocked country has no common
borders with Russia, Kazakhstan or Belarus. Citing Russia's Kaliningrad
exclave, Viktor Khristenko, the Russian head of the Customs Union's
executive body, has questioned this line of reasoning.
In a February interview with the Russian daily Moskovskie Novosti,
Armenian Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan came up with another argument
against Customs Union membership - that Armenia has a more liberal
trade regime than any of the union's three member states and lacks
vast natural resources.
Yerevan is reluctant to acknowledge publicly another, arguably more
important reason: joining the Russian-led union would essentially
preclude the signing of a comprehensive Association Agreement between
Armenia and the European Union. A key element of that agreement is the
creation of a "deep and comprehensive free trade area," which envisages
not only the lifting of all trade barriers, but also harmonization
of Armenian and EU economic laws and regulations. A spokesperson
for Catherine Ashton, the EU's foreign and security policy chief,
told RFE/RL in December 2012 that Armenian entry into the Moscow-led
Customs Union "would not be compatible" with the Association Agreement.
The Armenian government has since continued to express strong interest
in concluding its association talks with the EU in time for a planned
November 2013 summit in Vilnius on the EU's Eastern Partnership program
for six ex-Soviet states. Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian discussed
preparations for the summit at a March 7 meeting with Philippe Lefort,
the EU's special envoy for the South Caucasus.
The Armenian push for integration with the EU reflects President
Sargsyan's broader strategy of complementing the alliance with Russia
with closer partnership with the West.
During his first term, Sargsyan earned plaudits in Western capitals
for stepping up cooperation with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization
and embarking on a US-backed rapprochement with Turkey.
Analysts believe this is one reason why US President Barack Obama
and other Western leaders congratulated him on his disputed reelection.
Remarkably, there have been few indications of Russian discontent with
this policy. Russian policy-makers might be safe in the knowledge that,
with no solution to the conflict with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh
in sight, Armenia will remain heavily reliant on military ties with
Russia in the foreseeable future.
Sargsyan was instrumental in securing a 2010 deal that extended
the presence of Russian troops in Armenia until 2044, and Putin has
responded accordingly.
In January, he authorized his government to sign a new Russian-Armenian
defense accord that calls for joint arms manufacturing. Russia's
defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, and chief of the General Staff,
Colonel General Valery Gerasimov, discussed the planned deal during
subsequent trips to Armenia. Sargsyan thanked Putin on March 12 for
"good progress" in defense cooperation.
But appearances can be deceiving, cautioned analyst Markarov.
"Armenia has been trying to circumvent the Customs Union, while
favoring other, bilateral formats of cooperation with Russia," he
said. "It has to listen to Russia more than any other foreign power.
But listening doesn't mean always obeying."
Editor's note: Emil Danielyan is a freelance journalist based in
Yerevan.
http://www.eurasianet.org/node/66688