Bait of Abkhazian Railway
HAKOB BADALYAN
16:41 16/03/2013
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index.php/eng/0/comments/view/29311
After Serzh Sargsyan's visit to Moscow the Russian official press
published an article the author of which stated that the key issue on
the Armenian-Russian agenda during Serzh Sargsyan's second term will
be the opening of the Abkhazian railway.
The Georgian Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili's government was the
first to bring up the opening of the railway. Recently Ivanishvili has
stated there is political will but there is no need to rush.
The Abkhazian railway could be an important infrastructure for
Armenia. Currently the Armenian cargo shipments get to Russia via Poti
Port or Upper Lars road. Railway capacity is higher so economically it
is more feasible.
How can Armenia contribute to the operation of the railway? To
describe the issue roughly, Armenia has to persuade either Russia or
Georgia. Armenia will have to offer them something in return for the
railway. In other words, as the issue of opening the Abkhazian railway
is put on the Russian-Georgian agenda, it becomes a means of blackmail
against Armenia. In other words, if Armenia tries to enter into this
dialogue, Georgia, Russia and maybe also Abkhazia will set the
conditions.
Is the Abkhazian railway worth this? It is important, of course, as
any other road could be but there are is no confidence in lasting
operation of the railway. Besides, it is not known how long it will
take to open this railway because experts say it needs reconstruction.
Whether a road or a pipeline, any infrastructure is important for
Armenia. In the complicated South Caucasian region the Armenian
economy cannot be safe even in case of two or three roads and
pipelines because they will run across a limited number of countries
two of which are hostile to Armenia, one is a rather unpredictable
neighbor, while the Iranian issue is on the international agenda with
uncertainty over its further settlement.
No road can be guaranteed for Armenia.
Consequently, the strategy of the Armenian economic security should be
economic reforms to reach the least dependence on the regional
railways and pipelines.
The best safeguard of economic security is to develop IT, alternative
energy and tourism. These ideas have been put forth since independence
but steps taken in this direction hardly differ from the natural pace,
that is the progress that would be felt even without a state policy
and strategy.
Of course, it is impossible to build an economy which does not need
roads or pipelines. But with less dependent economy it is possible to
guarantee those infrastructures to a certain extent. For neighbors and
regional actors it will be meaningless to use those infrastructures
for blackmail against Armenia.