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ARMENIAN DREAM AND THE UNPLEASANT REALITY
Today's Zaman, Turkey
March 18 2013
18 March 2013 /MUSTAFA EDİB YILMAZ
AGVERAN, ARMENIA -- Sharing borders with two of the three countries in
the region and having complicated relations not only with them but
also with both Russia and Iran, and as a long time EU-aspirant
country, I think Turkey is quite relevant for any discussion about
Europe and the South Caucasus.
Speaking of the EU, Turkey and the region, however, we should first
acknowledge a number of unpleasant realities on the ground. Turkey has
a 325-kilometer-long land border closed to travel and trade with
Armenia for two decades now. And that border is highly unlikely to be
opened unless there is an understanding between Azerbaijan and Armenia
over the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, which does not seem possible to
achieve in the near future.
The way Turkey sees it, Azerbaijan is an indispensable ally with its
cultural proximity and rich energy resources. Therefore, whatever
Azerbaijani interests are in this conflict -- obviously containment of
Armenia for today -- Turkey will move along the desired path.
Like it or not, it is the case also because there is a serious
asymmetry between the Turkish and Armenian perceptions of the impact
of the border being closed. Turkey has always found a way to bypass
Armenia for strategic energy and infrastructure projects, while at the
same time penetrating into its market with numerous goods, condemning
its eastern neighbor to a lonely isolation.
It is true that a few Turkish provinces in the border area also suffer
as a result of the enforced economic inactivity there. Yet they are
highly underpopulated and mostly rural areas where the locals'
concerns are often overlooked and go unaddressed by the central
governments and media. This is why in fact we have the saying "It
won't snow in Turkey unless it snows in İstanbul or Ankara." This is
not only metaphorically but also literally true. Those mountainous
border regions may be under thick snow for months but most newspaper
readers will barely see their dailies report on their plight, yet one
day it snows in one of those two metropolitan areas and there are
increased traffic jams on the streets and you will see large pictures
of minor incidents on the front pages across the board.
The question now is whether Turkey can be persuaded to open its border
with Armenia in the absence of a clear roadmap to a solution for
Nagorno-Karabakh. Obviously both the US and the EU would like to see
it opened because it is believed it will help a great deal to
integrate Armenia into the free market economies in the West and also
pull it closer to becoming a Western type of liberal democracy.
Yet I believe this does not seem likely to happen in the near future
either. For the US, if helping normalize Turkey's relations with one
other nation is a policy priority, it is with Israel. This is a
process that still needs a great deal of effort as many circumstances,
particularly with regard to Syria and Iran, require Turkey and Israel
forge a strong alliance. To make things worse, I'm afraid we can no
longer speak of a strong EU leverage over Turkey. The current
accession process seems to need a hastened boost before the bloc
attempts to alter Turkey's course on the foreign policy front. So I
would argue against making progress for those membership negotiations
conditional on the opening of the border because such a step would
only be counter-productive and further push Turkey away from the
union.
http://www.todayszaman.com/news-310020-armenian-dream-and-the-unpleasant-reality.html
Today's Zaman, Turkey
March 18 2013
18 March 2013 /MUSTAFA EDİB YILMAZ
AGVERAN, ARMENIA -- Sharing borders with two of the three countries in
the region and having complicated relations not only with them but
also with both Russia and Iran, and as a long time EU-aspirant
country, I think Turkey is quite relevant for any discussion about
Europe and the South Caucasus.
Speaking of the EU, Turkey and the region, however, we should first
acknowledge a number of unpleasant realities on the ground. Turkey has
a 325-kilometer-long land border closed to travel and trade with
Armenia for two decades now. And that border is highly unlikely to be
opened unless there is an understanding between Azerbaijan and Armenia
over the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, which does not seem possible to
achieve in the near future.
The way Turkey sees it, Azerbaijan is an indispensable ally with its
cultural proximity and rich energy resources. Therefore, whatever
Azerbaijani interests are in this conflict -- obviously containment of
Armenia for today -- Turkey will move along the desired path.
Like it or not, it is the case also because there is a serious
asymmetry between the Turkish and Armenian perceptions of the impact
of the border being closed. Turkey has always found a way to bypass
Armenia for strategic energy and infrastructure projects, while at the
same time penetrating into its market with numerous goods, condemning
its eastern neighbor to a lonely isolation.
It is true that a few Turkish provinces in the border area also suffer
as a result of the enforced economic inactivity there. Yet they are
highly underpopulated and mostly rural areas where the locals'
concerns are often overlooked and go unaddressed by the central
governments and media. This is why in fact we have the saying "It
won't snow in Turkey unless it snows in İstanbul or Ankara." This is
not only metaphorically but also literally true. Those mountainous
border regions may be under thick snow for months but most newspaper
readers will barely see their dailies report on their plight, yet one
day it snows in one of those two metropolitan areas and there are
increased traffic jams on the streets and you will see large pictures
of minor incidents on the front pages across the board.
The question now is whether Turkey can be persuaded to open its border
with Armenia in the absence of a clear roadmap to a solution for
Nagorno-Karabakh. Obviously both the US and the EU would like to see
it opened because it is believed it will help a great deal to
integrate Armenia into the free market economies in the West and also
pull it closer to becoming a Western type of liberal democracy.
Yet I believe this does not seem likely to happen in the near future
either. For the US, if helping normalize Turkey's relations with one
other nation is a policy priority, it is with Israel. This is a
process that still needs a great deal of effort as many circumstances,
particularly with regard to Syria and Iran, require Turkey and Israel
forge a strong alliance. To make things worse, I'm afraid we can no
longer speak of a strong EU leverage over Turkey. The current
accession process seems to need a hastened boost before the bloc
attempts to alter Turkey's course on the foreign policy front. So I
would argue against making progress for those membership negotiations
conditional on the opening of the border because such a step would
only be counter-productive and further push Turkey away from the
union.
http://www.todayszaman.com/news-310020-armenian-dream-and-the-unpleasant-reality.html