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COURT RULING DASHES HOPES OF ARMENIAN OPPOSITION
Business News Europe
March 19 2013
Clare Nuttall in Astana
March 19, 2013
Armenia's Constitutional Court on March 14 rejected an appeal by Raffi
Hovhannisyan, the runner-up in the February presidential elections,
effectively bringing to an end opposition efforts to prevent Serzh
Sargsyan's re-inauguration. Hovhannisyan has declared he will fight
on, but the court's ruling has ended expectations of mass unrest on
the scale that followed the last presidential election in 2008. As
Armenia waits for Sargsyan to be inaugurated on April 9, the more
lasting impact of the opposition protests may be in creating pressure
for reform during his second term as president.
The court upheld the Sargsyan victory in the first round of voting on
February 18, despite claims from Hovhannisyan, leader of the Heritage
Party and a former finance minister, that the result had been rigged.
The court said that there had been no violations during the election
that could have affected its result.
Hovhannisyan, the runner-up with 36.7% of the vote to Sargsyan's 58.6%,
claimed that he was the real winner of the election.
Immediately after the election, his supporters said they had observed
violations of the voting process including ballot stuffing and
the removal of stamps from voters' passports. In the weeks since
the election, Hovhannisyan's supporters have organised a series of
demonstrations in the capital Yerevan, with the largest attracting up
to 5,000 people. As support for his protests gradually dwindled, on
March 10 Hovhannisyan started a hunger strike and called on Sargsyan
to step down before April 9.
However, the court's verdict is bolstered by reports from
international election observers that said whatever violations of
the electoral process occurred, they were not sufficient to have
affected the end result of the election. The post-election report
from the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe/Office
for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (OSCE/ODIHR) observer
mission concluded that the election was "generally well-administered
and was characterized by a respect for fundamental freedoms." The
February 18 report did note, however, "a lack of impartiality of the
public administration, misuse of administrative resources, and cases
of pressure on voters", as well as "undue interference".
Hovhannisyan did take considerably more votes than was predicted. An
opinion poll carried out by Gallup International on February 2-5 put
him in second place with an expected 24% of the vote - well below the
36.7% he received on election day. The decision by fellow opposition
leaders such as former president Levon Ter-Petrossian and Prosperous
Party leader Gagik Tsarukian meant that the anti-Sargsyan vote was
concentrated on Hovhannisyan, with no other candidate taking more
than 3%.
Hovhannisyan's campaign to have the result overturned also provided a
unifying force for Armenia's fragmented opposition, with other leaders
including Ter-Petrossian saying they considered the election to have
been rigged.
Following the constitutional court's ruling, however, the opposition
seems to have run out of steam. "It is clear now that things
are returning to normal," Richard Giragosian, director of the
Yerevan-based Regional Studies Center, tells bne. "Despite higher
levels of discontent, the opposition reaction is both leaderless
and rudderless. Instead of focusing on the May 2013 municipal
elections, which represents an opportunity to build a power base,
they are resignation of the president which is not only unlikely
but impossible."
New term
Sargsyan is now preparing for his inauguration on April 9, and is set
to start the new term on a firmer footing than when he first became
president in 2008. None of the opposition protests were as large as
those seen after the February 2008 elections, which were violently
put down by Armenia's security forces resulting in 10 deaths. These
events seriously tarnished Sargsyan's legitimacy at the start of his
first term in office.
There are now expectations of greater reform following his
re-election. The economy has performed relatively well in recent years,
rebounding strongly from the depths of the economic crisis in 2009,
with the International Monetary Fund estimating 3.9% GDP growth in
2012. On the political front, Sargsyan has opened a dialogue with
the opposition in an attempt to heal the breach caused by the 2008
elections, and the country has made modest progress in fighting
corruption, rising on Transparency International's Corruption
Perceptions Index from 120th place in 2009 to 105th in 2012.
Given the unrest after the 2013 elections, Giragosian tells bne that
the government could take the right lesson that it's very dangerous
for any incumbent government to ignore popular demands for change.
"Counter-intuitively, this may have a positive impact on the government
by accelerating reforms," he says. Key changes on the cards include
working towards agreeing a free trade area and association agreement
with the EU.
There are also signs that Sargsyan is planning top-level personnel
changes. Under the Armenian constitution, the government has to
resign on inauguration day, which takes place 50 days after the
presidential election. A prime minister has to be appointed within
10 days of inauguration, and a new government no more than 20 days
later. In late February, rumours emerged in the Armenian press that
Sargyan was planning to replace Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan. Former
Yerevan mayor Karen Karapetyan, who is now vice-president of Russia's
Gazprombank, was reported by Zhoghovurd to have returned from Moscow
to Yerevan for talks with Sargsyan's Republican Party of Armenia
sparking speculation that he is a possible candidate.
http://www.bne.eu/story4691/Court_ruling_dashes_hopes_of_Armenian_opposition
Business News Europe
March 19 2013
Clare Nuttall in Astana
March 19, 2013
Armenia's Constitutional Court on March 14 rejected an appeal by Raffi
Hovhannisyan, the runner-up in the February presidential elections,
effectively bringing to an end opposition efforts to prevent Serzh
Sargsyan's re-inauguration. Hovhannisyan has declared he will fight
on, but the court's ruling has ended expectations of mass unrest on
the scale that followed the last presidential election in 2008. As
Armenia waits for Sargsyan to be inaugurated on April 9, the more
lasting impact of the opposition protests may be in creating pressure
for reform during his second term as president.
The court upheld the Sargsyan victory in the first round of voting on
February 18, despite claims from Hovhannisyan, leader of the Heritage
Party and a former finance minister, that the result had been rigged.
The court said that there had been no violations during the election
that could have affected its result.
Hovhannisyan, the runner-up with 36.7% of the vote to Sargsyan's 58.6%,
claimed that he was the real winner of the election.
Immediately after the election, his supporters said they had observed
violations of the voting process including ballot stuffing and
the removal of stamps from voters' passports. In the weeks since
the election, Hovhannisyan's supporters have organised a series of
demonstrations in the capital Yerevan, with the largest attracting up
to 5,000 people. As support for his protests gradually dwindled, on
March 10 Hovhannisyan started a hunger strike and called on Sargsyan
to step down before April 9.
However, the court's verdict is bolstered by reports from
international election observers that said whatever violations of
the electoral process occurred, they were not sufficient to have
affected the end result of the election. The post-election report
from the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe/Office
for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (OSCE/ODIHR) observer
mission concluded that the election was "generally well-administered
and was characterized by a respect for fundamental freedoms." The
February 18 report did note, however, "a lack of impartiality of the
public administration, misuse of administrative resources, and cases
of pressure on voters", as well as "undue interference".
Hovhannisyan did take considerably more votes than was predicted. An
opinion poll carried out by Gallup International on February 2-5 put
him in second place with an expected 24% of the vote - well below the
36.7% he received on election day. The decision by fellow opposition
leaders such as former president Levon Ter-Petrossian and Prosperous
Party leader Gagik Tsarukian meant that the anti-Sargsyan vote was
concentrated on Hovhannisyan, with no other candidate taking more
than 3%.
Hovhannisyan's campaign to have the result overturned also provided a
unifying force for Armenia's fragmented opposition, with other leaders
including Ter-Petrossian saying they considered the election to have
been rigged.
Following the constitutional court's ruling, however, the opposition
seems to have run out of steam. "It is clear now that things
are returning to normal," Richard Giragosian, director of the
Yerevan-based Regional Studies Center, tells bne. "Despite higher
levels of discontent, the opposition reaction is both leaderless
and rudderless. Instead of focusing on the May 2013 municipal
elections, which represents an opportunity to build a power base,
they are resignation of the president which is not only unlikely
but impossible."
New term
Sargsyan is now preparing for his inauguration on April 9, and is set
to start the new term on a firmer footing than when he first became
president in 2008. None of the opposition protests were as large as
those seen after the February 2008 elections, which were violently
put down by Armenia's security forces resulting in 10 deaths. These
events seriously tarnished Sargsyan's legitimacy at the start of his
first term in office.
There are now expectations of greater reform following his
re-election. The economy has performed relatively well in recent years,
rebounding strongly from the depths of the economic crisis in 2009,
with the International Monetary Fund estimating 3.9% GDP growth in
2012. On the political front, Sargsyan has opened a dialogue with
the opposition in an attempt to heal the breach caused by the 2008
elections, and the country has made modest progress in fighting
corruption, rising on Transparency International's Corruption
Perceptions Index from 120th place in 2009 to 105th in 2012.
Given the unrest after the 2013 elections, Giragosian tells bne that
the government could take the right lesson that it's very dangerous
for any incumbent government to ignore popular demands for change.
"Counter-intuitively, this may have a positive impact on the government
by accelerating reforms," he says. Key changes on the cards include
working towards agreeing a free trade area and association agreement
with the EU.
There are also signs that Sargsyan is planning top-level personnel
changes. Under the Armenian constitution, the government has to
resign on inauguration day, which takes place 50 days after the
presidential election. A prime minister has to be appointed within
10 days of inauguration, and a new government no more than 20 days
later. In late February, rumours emerged in the Armenian press that
Sargyan was planning to replace Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan. Former
Yerevan mayor Karen Karapetyan, who is now vice-president of Russia's
Gazprombank, was reported by Zhoghovurd to have returned from Moscow
to Yerevan for talks with Sargsyan's Republican Party of Armenia
sparking speculation that he is a possible candidate.
http://www.bne.eu/story4691/Court_ruling_dashes_hopes_of_Armenian_opposition