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PSYCHOLOGICAL OFFENSIVE AGAINST RAFFI HOVANNISIAN
11:13 26/03/2013
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index.php/eng/0/comments/view/29413
Raffi Hovannisian did not hurry to answer Serzh Sargsyan and promised
to do it later in written form. Hovannisian will publish his reply
before sending it because he has promised to refrain from closed
conversations and contacts with the government and other political
parties.
Ostensibly, Serzh Sargsyan's reply gave Hovannisian a surprise,
and he did not expect to have to reply to such a reply. Otherwise,
Raffi Hovannisian would have predicted this scenario and would not
have delayed his reply. It is not ruled out that Hovannisian had a
scenario but there is another issue.
Perhaps it is not so difficult for Raffi Hovannisian to reply to Serzh
Sargsyan as to explain and substantiate his decision to his supporters
and partners on Freedom Square in case the option of negotiating with
Serzh Sargsyan and stopping his hunger strike is chosen.
It is not clear what Raffi Hovannisian will say but it is obvious
that communication with the square will be complicated, especially
that the PAP and ANC have launched a psychological offensive against
Raffi Hovannisian whose plans are not in line with the negotiations
between Raffi Hovannisian and Serzh Sargsyan.
These negotiations will shade the battle for Yerevan, and though
Yerevan is half of Armenia and victory will create a counterbalance
to the monopoly of the Republican Party, there is a corner stone,
the Constitution, which vests only local powers in the mayor.
In Armenia enforcement of the Constitution and laws is very weak,
of course because the central government does not need that. As soon
as needed, they are enforced "severely". Consequently, the forces
which have stood up for the battle imagine that the main problem
will be the fight for the role of leader and strengthening their
foothold and remain viable ahead of 2017-2018 and preventing an early
parliamentary election.
When Serzh Sargsyan and Raffi Hovannisian launch negotiations, it
will necessitate recognition of the Heritage as the leader of the
opposition, at least if the negotiations are an imitation. In addition,
it must be an international recognition to some extent. As a result,
the recognition may have different formalizations. And though in
this scenario Raffi Hovannisian may lose part of its public platform,
especially considering the existence of radical groups and important
personalities who are not prone to concessions, it may not have much
importance because formalization will lead to a new situation when
failure will not be a return to the status quo.
The problem will be further complicated if Raffi Hovannisian is able
to keep the square vibrant and viable and to negotiate with Serzh
Sargsyan not as Raffi Hovannisian but as the mediator or representative
of people as he put it once.
In that case, the negotiations will not be imitation but a real
process, which is not desirable for the forces which are up for a
battle for Yerevan.
But before that Raffi Hovannisian needs to resolve the key issue and
explain substantially why he will accept Serzh Sargsyan's proposal if
he is going to accept it and not the contrary, he is going to refuse
in written form.
Although, the golden middle is possible when Raffi Hovannisian
will agree to negotiate but will put forth certain conditions and
reservations as a guarantee that if Serzh Sargsyan retreats, he will
have space to retreat.
Generally, negotiations will not favor neither Serzh Sargsyan, nor
Raffi Hovannisian, especially that the scarcity of the potential
of negotiations is obvious. The negotiation is a necessary protocol
process for the time being so both will prefer protracting the preamble
as long as possible through mutual acts, at least in parallel with
the mayoral election in Yerevan.
From: Baghdasarian
11:13 26/03/2013
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index.php/eng/0/comments/view/29413
Raffi Hovannisian did not hurry to answer Serzh Sargsyan and promised
to do it later in written form. Hovannisian will publish his reply
before sending it because he has promised to refrain from closed
conversations and contacts with the government and other political
parties.
Ostensibly, Serzh Sargsyan's reply gave Hovannisian a surprise,
and he did not expect to have to reply to such a reply. Otherwise,
Raffi Hovannisian would have predicted this scenario and would not
have delayed his reply. It is not ruled out that Hovannisian had a
scenario but there is another issue.
Perhaps it is not so difficult for Raffi Hovannisian to reply to Serzh
Sargsyan as to explain and substantiate his decision to his supporters
and partners on Freedom Square in case the option of negotiating with
Serzh Sargsyan and stopping his hunger strike is chosen.
It is not clear what Raffi Hovannisian will say but it is obvious
that communication with the square will be complicated, especially
that the PAP and ANC have launched a psychological offensive against
Raffi Hovannisian whose plans are not in line with the negotiations
between Raffi Hovannisian and Serzh Sargsyan.
These negotiations will shade the battle for Yerevan, and though
Yerevan is half of Armenia and victory will create a counterbalance
to the monopoly of the Republican Party, there is a corner stone,
the Constitution, which vests only local powers in the mayor.
In Armenia enforcement of the Constitution and laws is very weak,
of course because the central government does not need that. As soon
as needed, they are enforced "severely". Consequently, the forces
which have stood up for the battle imagine that the main problem
will be the fight for the role of leader and strengthening their
foothold and remain viable ahead of 2017-2018 and preventing an early
parliamentary election.
When Serzh Sargsyan and Raffi Hovannisian launch negotiations, it
will necessitate recognition of the Heritage as the leader of the
opposition, at least if the negotiations are an imitation. In addition,
it must be an international recognition to some extent. As a result,
the recognition may have different formalizations. And though in
this scenario Raffi Hovannisian may lose part of its public platform,
especially considering the existence of radical groups and important
personalities who are not prone to concessions, it may not have much
importance because formalization will lead to a new situation when
failure will not be a return to the status quo.
The problem will be further complicated if Raffi Hovannisian is able
to keep the square vibrant and viable and to negotiate with Serzh
Sargsyan not as Raffi Hovannisian but as the mediator or representative
of people as he put it once.
In that case, the negotiations will not be imitation but a real
process, which is not desirable for the forces which are up for a
battle for Yerevan.
But before that Raffi Hovannisian needs to resolve the key issue and
explain substantially why he will accept Serzh Sargsyan's proposal if
he is going to accept it and not the contrary, he is going to refuse
in written form.
Although, the golden middle is possible when Raffi Hovannisian
will agree to negotiate but will put forth certain conditions and
reservations as a guarantee that if Serzh Sargsyan retreats, he will
have space to retreat.
Generally, negotiations will not favor neither Serzh Sargsyan, nor
Raffi Hovannisian, especially that the scarcity of the potential
of negotiations is obvious. The negotiation is a necessary protocol
process for the time being so both will prefer protracting the preamble
as long as possible through mutual acts, at least in parallel with
the mayoral election in Yerevan.
From: Baghdasarian