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The European Union's fraying ties
Technorati Profile
Warsaw Business Journal (Warsaw, Poland)
Posted on 25 Mon, Mar 2013
Despite its claims to the contrary, the European Union has faced
difficulties in its relationships with neighboring states in its
periphery, most notably Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia. The European
Union released a report March 20 on the status of its European
Neighborhood Policy, stating that progress has been made with Moldova
and Georgia over the past year, while Ukraine has experienced a
setback in its relations with the European bloc. In reality, the
Europe-oriented political factions in each country have weakened
during this time period. While this does not mean that all of these
countries are completely turning away from Europe and moving into the
Russian fold, the prospect of these countries getting closer to the
European Union - much less joining the bloc - is diminishing
Analysis
The European Neighborhood Policy, developed in 2004, is an initiative
that seeks to build closer relations between the European Union and
countries close to the bloc in Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and the
Mediterranean, primarily through the promotion of democracy and human
rights in these countries. Complementing this initiative is another EU
regional program known as the Eastern Partnership, which specifically
targets former Soviet states on the EU periphery: Belarus, Ukraine,
Moldova, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan. While both programs seek to
develop ties by promoting democracy and transparency in line with EU
norms, the Eastern Partnership also offers political and financial
incentives to strengthen relationships with target countries.
Of the Eastern Partnership target states, Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia
were seen - particularly by Poland and Sweden, the initiators of the
Eastern Partnership - as a priority for the European Union. These
countries are strategically located, with Ukraine and Moldova
buffering the European Union from Russia and Georgia serving as an
important energy transit point within the Southern
Corridor. Furthermore, these countries have had the most
Western-oriented governments of all the target states and have pursued
EU membership as an official policy goal. However, internal political
dynamics in all three countries have presented major challenges for
the European Union's efforts, and the states' further integration into
the bloc has come to a virtual halt.
In Ukraine, President Viktor Yanukovych's political consolidation has
led to the detention of several opposition figures, most notably
former prime minister and presidential candidate Yulia
Tymoshenko. These detentions have prompted criticism from Europe and
have strained Ukrainian-EU relations. In 2012, Ukraine initialed
association and free trade agreements with the European Union - the
most advanced stage of European integration achieved by any of the
Eastern Partnership states. However, neither document has been
officially signed or ratified due to Tymoshenko's controversial
imprisonment and to parliamentary elections held later in 2012 that
the Europeans deemed unfair. This delay is what prompted the European
Union to label its relationship with Ukraine as `lagging behind' in
its March 20 report.
However, even in Moldova and Georgia, it is difficult to see where
progress in EU relations has been made. The European Union's report
commended Georgia for holding free and fair parliamentary elections in
2012. However, in that election Georgian President Mikhail
Saakashvili's United National Movement party was defeated by the
Georgian Dream movement led by billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, who
has advocated normalizing economic ties with Russia. Since then,
Georgia's commitment to Western-oriented projects has been
increasingly questioned, and Mr Ivanishvili has targeted Mr
Saakashvili loyalists in numerous political and economic positions,
sacking some and detaining others. Though Ivanishvili has stated that
Georgia will continue pursuing EU and NATO memberships, this
orientation will likely weaken while he is prime minister.
With regard to Moldova, the EU report noted positive movement on
association and free trade agreements between Chisinau and the
European Union. However, the recent collapse of the Western-oriented
ruling coalition, the Alliance for European Integration, has thrown
the country back into a familiar state of political paralysis. This
collapse has opened up the possibility of early elections, which could
lead to a comeback by the Russia-oriented Communist Party. Even if the
Communists fail to regain control of the government, it is likely that
political deadlock will stifle any significant integration between
Moldova and the European Union - such as the free trade agreement - in
the coming months, if not years.
Russia stands to gain the most from these political developments and
the weakening of these countries' ties with the European Union. Moscow
has significant levers in all three countries and could gain
politically and economically as prospects for EU integration
diminish. However, internal political divisions within Ukraine,
Moldova and Georgia limit the impact of any outside power - including
Russia - in influencing the countries' orientation, and each of their
governments will be careful to keep both foreign policy options open
to a certain extent.
Still, the European Union's position has clearly weakened as a result
of the evolving political situation in each country, and the deepening
economic and political crisis in Europe has reduced the bloc's energy
and appetite for focusing on its Eastern neighbors. All of these
factors have caused the further integration of Ukraine, Moldova and
Georgia with Europe to become increasingly unlikely.
Stratfor.com
Technorati Profile
Warsaw Business Journal (Warsaw, Poland)
Posted on 25 Mon, Mar 2013
Despite its claims to the contrary, the European Union has faced
difficulties in its relationships with neighboring states in its
periphery, most notably Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia. The European
Union released a report March 20 on the status of its European
Neighborhood Policy, stating that progress has been made with Moldova
and Georgia over the past year, while Ukraine has experienced a
setback in its relations with the European bloc. In reality, the
Europe-oriented political factions in each country have weakened
during this time period. While this does not mean that all of these
countries are completely turning away from Europe and moving into the
Russian fold, the prospect of these countries getting closer to the
European Union - much less joining the bloc - is diminishing
Analysis
The European Neighborhood Policy, developed in 2004, is an initiative
that seeks to build closer relations between the European Union and
countries close to the bloc in Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and the
Mediterranean, primarily through the promotion of democracy and human
rights in these countries. Complementing this initiative is another EU
regional program known as the Eastern Partnership, which specifically
targets former Soviet states on the EU periphery: Belarus, Ukraine,
Moldova, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan. While both programs seek to
develop ties by promoting democracy and transparency in line with EU
norms, the Eastern Partnership also offers political and financial
incentives to strengthen relationships with target countries.
Of the Eastern Partnership target states, Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia
were seen - particularly by Poland and Sweden, the initiators of the
Eastern Partnership - as a priority for the European Union. These
countries are strategically located, with Ukraine and Moldova
buffering the European Union from Russia and Georgia serving as an
important energy transit point within the Southern
Corridor. Furthermore, these countries have had the most
Western-oriented governments of all the target states and have pursued
EU membership as an official policy goal. However, internal political
dynamics in all three countries have presented major challenges for
the European Union's efforts, and the states' further integration into
the bloc has come to a virtual halt.
In Ukraine, President Viktor Yanukovych's political consolidation has
led to the detention of several opposition figures, most notably
former prime minister and presidential candidate Yulia
Tymoshenko. These detentions have prompted criticism from Europe and
have strained Ukrainian-EU relations. In 2012, Ukraine initialed
association and free trade agreements with the European Union - the
most advanced stage of European integration achieved by any of the
Eastern Partnership states. However, neither document has been
officially signed or ratified due to Tymoshenko's controversial
imprisonment and to parliamentary elections held later in 2012 that
the Europeans deemed unfair. This delay is what prompted the European
Union to label its relationship with Ukraine as `lagging behind' in
its March 20 report.
However, even in Moldova and Georgia, it is difficult to see where
progress in EU relations has been made. The European Union's report
commended Georgia for holding free and fair parliamentary elections in
2012. However, in that election Georgian President Mikhail
Saakashvili's United National Movement party was defeated by the
Georgian Dream movement led by billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, who
has advocated normalizing economic ties with Russia. Since then,
Georgia's commitment to Western-oriented projects has been
increasingly questioned, and Mr Ivanishvili has targeted Mr
Saakashvili loyalists in numerous political and economic positions,
sacking some and detaining others. Though Ivanishvili has stated that
Georgia will continue pursuing EU and NATO memberships, this
orientation will likely weaken while he is prime minister.
With regard to Moldova, the EU report noted positive movement on
association and free trade agreements between Chisinau and the
European Union. However, the recent collapse of the Western-oriented
ruling coalition, the Alliance for European Integration, has thrown
the country back into a familiar state of political paralysis. This
collapse has opened up the possibility of early elections, which could
lead to a comeback by the Russia-oriented Communist Party. Even if the
Communists fail to regain control of the government, it is likely that
political deadlock will stifle any significant integration between
Moldova and the European Union - such as the free trade agreement - in
the coming months, if not years.
Russia stands to gain the most from these political developments and
the weakening of these countries' ties with the European Union. Moscow
has significant levers in all three countries and could gain
politically and economically as prospects for EU integration
diminish. However, internal political divisions within Ukraine,
Moldova and Georgia limit the impact of any outside power - including
Russia - in influencing the countries' orientation, and each of their
governments will be careful to keep both foreign policy options open
to a certain extent.
Still, the European Union's position has clearly weakened as a result
of the evolving political situation in each country, and the deepening
economic and political crisis in Europe has reduced the bloc's energy
and appetite for focusing on its Eastern neighbors. All of these
factors have caused the further integration of Ukraine, Moldova and
Georgia with Europe to become increasingly unlikely.
Stratfor.com