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WILL SPRING ARRIVE IN ARMENIA?
Today's Zaman, Turkey
March 25 2013
by Alin Ozinian*
Armenia's Heritage Party leader Raffi Hovannisian, who was awarded
37 percent of popular votes in the country's Feb. 18 presidential
elections, ranking him second to Serzh Azati Sarksyan, has disputed
the results and called on Sarksyan to re-hold the election.
Before the election, no one had expected Hovannisian, who was also
Armenia's first foreign minister, to achieve the electoral success
he did. Thus, many people agreed that anti-Sarksyan voters had cast
their ballots for Hovannisian in the elections. After the election
results, Hovannisian declared himself the "real president elected
by the people" and started to hold post-election demonstrations to
protest what he saw as dubious election results.
During his election campaign, "Raffi," as he is referred to, walked
through the streets, greeted people, rode the subway and tried to
engage in conversations with all segments of society, and maintained
this attitude after the elections. Hovannisian, while greeting people
with hugs and saying "barev" (hello in Armenian), started a new
campaign called "BAREVolution." Nowadays people are joking, saying:
"Barev [is a greeting that] used to belong to God, but now it belongs
to Raffi. So how are Sarksyan supporters greeting each other now?"
While government officials pointed to many countries, including Turkey,
that have already congratulated Sarksyan on his victory as well as
positive reports from international election observers after the
votes were counted, Hovannisian's supporters explain how the election
results had been tampered with in Sarksyan's favor.
Hovannisian and Sarksyan had a one-on-one post-election meeting in
Yerevan on Feb. 21. Only the first five minutes of the meeting were
broadcast live on the Internet. During these five minutes, Sarksyan
asked his opponent: "You look like you are down. Are you upset?"
Hovannisian answered: "I do not feel blue. I am quite alright."
Although this short conversation restored people's hope about
Hovannisian's determination, many others thought that the leader
would withdraw his claims of electoral fraud if he were appointed as
a minister in the new government. After the meeting, Hovannisian,
who looked truly upset this time, told the people waiting for him
on historic Baghramyan Avenue: "Now go back to your homes, we will
gather tomorrow again." This undermined his supporters' morale and
their desire to display resistance to the Sarksyan administration.
Since Feb. 21, Hovannisian has held dozens of meetings and declared
that he will go on a hunger strike on March 9 until the election is
re-held. Dashnak Party leader Andreas Ghukasyan, who leveled sharp
criticism at Sarksyan, insisting that he shouldn't be participating
in these elections, and who had previously gone on a hunger strike
to protest Sarksyan's candidacy one month before the elections, also
supports Hovannisian. Although millionaire businessman Gagik Tsarukyan,
the leader of the country's second-largest Prosperous Armenia political
party, who disappointed many of his supporters by deciding not to stand
as a candidate for president, does not openly support Hovannisian,
his popular television channel extensively covers the news reports on
Hovannisian's protest and invites him on to live television programs.
When we consider the repressive state practices against freedom
of the press and expression, this may be regarded as outright
support to Hovannisian. Armenia's first president, 68-year-old Levon
Ter-Petrosyan, the leader of the opposition Armenian National Congress
(ANC), who announced that he will not stand for the presidency, does
not openly lend support to Hovannisian but underlined the importance of
free and transparent elections several times. During the post-election
demonstration against alleged electoral fraud on March 1, 2008, a
skirmish broke out between Ter-Petrosyan supporters and security forces
in Yerevan's Freedom Square. The police forces opened fire on the
protesters, killing 10 of them. Since 2008, Ter-Petrosyan supporters
have commemorated the anniversary of this bloody post-election clash
by holding "Mourning Rallies" in Freedom Square.
Unlike in previous years, Ter-Petrosyan left the Freedom Square
to Hovannisian's demonstrations on March 1. Nikol Pashinyan, an
Armenian journalist and senior leader of the opposition movement led
by Ter-Petrosyan, also began to organize Hovannisian's rallies.
Hovannisian has already declared that he will not let anyone shed a
single drop of blood while striving for transparent elections.
However, Hovannisian's approach toward the "Karabakh clan" -- a
group of political leaders from the Karabakh region including former
President Robert Kocharian and incumbent Sarksyan -- is different from
Ter-Petrosyan's approach. During his post-election demonstrations,
Ter-Petrosyan divided people into the Karabakh clan, who both assume
and wield power, and Armenians, who are treated like second-class
citizens in Armenia. But Raffi adopts an all-embracing attitude which
he stresses at every opportunity. Saying, "This is our homeland, our
children and our future and we have to work together to build a bright
future," Hovannisian hugs a seller in a market and takes a baby into
his arms. He calls on the diaspora to support his struggle against
electoral fraud in a western Armenian accent and uses Russian words
as if to show that he is aware of Russia's influence over the country.
Although it was not mentioned on his schedule, Sarksyan paid his first
official visit as president to Moscow on March 12, and met with Russian
President Vladimir Putin. Putin, of course, congratulated him and
wished him luck with his future achievements. It seems that Sarksyan,
who returned to Armenia after getting the approval of his big brother,
is skeptical and uneasy about Hovannisian. In fact, all Armenians
wish to have a more transparent government and a better life and this
is why many people still stand with Hovannisian. On the other hand,
others who find his demands admirable believe that he has neither a
plan nor the power to force the government to re-hold the elections.
The fact is that the only demand held by Hovannisian, who considers a
hunger strike as his last resort, was to meet with Sarksyan in Freedom
Square. Sarksyan does not take Hovannisian seriously, though, and
continues to reject his demand. Although it seems unlikely Hovannisian
will achieve anything with a hunger strike when we consider the fact
that Sarksyan does not pay any heed to him, people are still waiting
for the rally slated for April 8 in which around 1 million people,
including those from the diaspora, are expected to attend. And April
8 will be either the milestone of the "BAREVolution" or the last day
we see Hovannisian in the squares.
*Alin Ozinian is an independent analyst.
http://www.todayszaman.com/newsDetail_getNewsById.action;jsessionid=070CA12BF A47C00880C55401A5D8730D?newsId=310701&columnistId= 0
Today's Zaman, Turkey
March 25 2013
by Alin Ozinian*
Armenia's Heritage Party leader Raffi Hovannisian, who was awarded
37 percent of popular votes in the country's Feb. 18 presidential
elections, ranking him second to Serzh Azati Sarksyan, has disputed
the results and called on Sarksyan to re-hold the election.
Before the election, no one had expected Hovannisian, who was also
Armenia's first foreign minister, to achieve the electoral success
he did. Thus, many people agreed that anti-Sarksyan voters had cast
their ballots for Hovannisian in the elections. After the election
results, Hovannisian declared himself the "real president elected
by the people" and started to hold post-election demonstrations to
protest what he saw as dubious election results.
During his election campaign, "Raffi," as he is referred to, walked
through the streets, greeted people, rode the subway and tried to
engage in conversations with all segments of society, and maintained
this attitude after the elections. Hovannisian, while greeting people
with hugs and saying "barev" (hello in Armenian), started a new
campaign called "BAREVolution." Nowadays people are joking, saying:
"Barev [is a greeting that] used to belong to God, but now it belongs
to Raffi. So how are Sarksyan supporters greeting each other now?"
While government officials pointed to many countries, including Turkey,
that have already congratulated Sarksyan on his victory as well as
positive reports from international election observers after the
votes were counted, Hovannisian's supporters explain how the election
results had been tampered with in Sarksyan's favor.
Hovannisian and Sarksyan had a one-on-one post-election meeting in
Yerevan on Feb. 21. Only the first five minutes of the meeting were
broadcast live on the Internet. During these five minutes, Sarksyan
asked his opponent: "You look like you are down. Are you upset?"
Hovannisian answered: "I do not feel blue. I am quite alright."
Although this short conversation restored people's hope about
Hovannisian's determination, many others thought that the leader
would withdraw his claims of electoral fraud if he were appointed as
a minister in the new government. After the meeting, Hovannisian,
who looked truly upset this time, told the people waiting for him
on historic Baghramyan Avenue: "Now go back to your homes, we will
gather tomorrow again." This undermined his supporters' morale and
their desire to display resistance to the Sarksyan administration.
Since Feb. 21, Hovannisian has held dozens of meetings and declared
that he will go on a hunger strike on March 9 until the election is
re-held. Dashnak Party leader Andreas Ghukasyan, who leveled sharp
criticism at Sarksyan, insisting that he shouldn't be participating
in these elections, and who had previously gone on a hunger strike
to protest Sarksyan's candidacy one month before the elections, also
supports Hovannisian. Although millionaire businessman Gagik Tsarukyan,
the leader of the country's second-largest Prosperous Armenia political
party, who disappointed many of his supporters by deciding not to stand
as a candidate for president, does not openly support Hovannisian,
his popular television channel extensively covers the news reports on
Hovannisian's protest and invites him on to live television programs.
When we consider the repressive state practices against freedom
of the press and expression, this may be regarded as outright
support to Hovannisian. Armenia's first president, 68-year-old Levon
Ter-Petrosyan, the leader of the opposition Armenian National Congress
(ANC), who announced that he will not stand for the presidency, does
not openly lend support to Hovannisian but underlined the importance of
free and transparent elections several times. During the post-election
demonstration against alleged electoral fraud on March 1, 2008, a
skirmish broke out between Ter-Petrosyan supporters and security forces
in Yerevan's Freedom Square. The police forces opened fire on the
protesters, killing 10 of them. Since 2008, Ter-Petrosyan supporters
have commemorated the anniversary of this bloody post-election clash
by holding "Mourning Rallies" in Freedom Square.
Unlike in previous years, Ter-Petrosyan left the Freedom Square
to Hovannisian's demonstrations on March 1. Nikol Pashinyan, an
Armenian journalist and senior leader of the opposition movement led
by Ter-Petrosyan, also began to organize Hovannisian's rallies.
Hovannisian has already declared that he will not let anyone shed a
single drop of blood while striving for transparent elections.
However, Hovannisian's approach toward the "Karabakh clan" -- a
group of political leaders from the Karabakh region including former
President Robert Kocharian and incumbent Sarksyan -- is different from
Ter-Petrosyan's approach. During his post-election demonstrations,
Ter-Petrosyan divided people into the Karabakh clan, who both assume
and wield power, and Armenians, who are treated like second-class
citizens in Armenia. But Raffi adopts an all-embracing attitude which
he stresses at every opportunity. Saying, "This is our homeland, our
children and our future and we have to work together to build a bright
future," Hovannisian hugs a seller in a market and takes a baby into
his arms. He calls on the diaspora to support his struggle against
electoral fraud in a western Armenian accent and uses Russian words
as if to show that he is aware of Russia's influence over the country.
Although it was not mentioned on his schedule, Sarksyan paid his first
official visit as president to Moscow on March 12, and met with Russian
President Vladimir Putin. Putin, of course, congratulated him and
wished him luck with his future achievements. It seems that Sarksyan,
who returned to Armenia after getting the approval of his big brother,
is skeptical and uneasy about Hovannisian. In fact, all Armenians
wish to have a more transparent government and a better life and this
is why many people still stand with Hovannisian. On the other hand,
others who find his demands admirable believe that he has neither a
plan nor the power to force the government to re-hold the elections.
The fact is that the only demand held by Hovannisian, who considers a
hunger strike as his last resort, was to meet with Sarksyan in Freedom
Square. Sarksyan does not take Hovannisian seriously, though, and
continues to reject his demand. Although it seems unlikely Hovannisian
will achieve anything with a hunger strike when we consider the fact
that Sarksyan does not pay any heed to him, people are still waiting
for the rally slated for April 8 in which around 1 million people,
including those from the diaspora, are expected to attend. And April
8 will be either the milestone of the "BAREVolution" or the last day
we see Hovannisian in the squares.
*Alin Ozinian is an independent analyst.
http://www.todayszaman.com/newsDetail_getNewsById.action;jsessionid=070CA12BF A47C00880C55401A5D8730D?newsId=310701&columnistId= 0