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Completion of A Giant Scenario
A new middle class has formed in the Arab states over the past 30
years. `New' means deep westernization and post-modernization of the
Arab and Islamic society. The aristocratic and bureaucratic regimes
are replaced by diversified social `delegates' who are trying to
self-accomplish at the junction of historical and political
developments, extend their power not only on local or national but
also trans-national structures.
Strangely, the Muslim Brothers and all kinds of Tariqahs are a
comfortable environment for strengthening and establishing the new
middle class. The new middle class has an economic and educational
potential, is interested in dynamic stability but, most importantly,
successful economic and social development.
The Islamic model of economy is just a decoration of social capitalism
but not more. The new middle class of the Islamic world has studied
all the economic and social schools and reported to the leaders of
their countries on the chances for development under different
conditions. The choice has been made, and policy is carried out, and
nobody can offer an alternative.
This stratum has only one more or less adequate partner - the Western
community - which supports middle class political groups to come to
power under any form, including in the form of moderate Islamists.
There is no problem or question on which the new social-political
corporation of Arab states and other Islamic countries could not agree
with the West. Radical Islamism has been defeated, and it has not
managed to bring up a new generation of politicians and entrepreneurs
who would lead the Arab revolution and be ready to set up Islamic
democracy in their countries.
Analysts and projectors of the Western community are increasingly
trying to project a model of moderate Islamism and understand that it
is possible to use the experience of Iran without any references to
it.
One wonders who benefitted from this absolutely brutal and risky
scenario of radical Islamism (understanding that it is an ambiguous
notion). Anyone but the Western community or the Islamic world.
Strangely, China and the Confucian-Buddhist civilization benefitted.
There are no other arguments to question the positive results of this
giant experiment for China. Strangely, Russia has left the `fight'
with the Islamists with results which were not so bad. They could have
been far worse. Here is an interesting turn, notably radical Islamism
is replaced by Islamic geopolitics and an effort is made to take it
under control. Of course, geopolitical aspirations mostly level the
alternative - the non-conventional asymmetrical fight. In other words,
the main goal is to relocate the pretensions of Islamic centers of
power to the level of agreed and binding conditions and rules.
Most probably, full or partial withdrawal of NATO troops from
Afghanistan supposes such a state of things. An expansionist state
will be set up in Afghanistan which will have territorial and
political claims to Pakistan, Iran and Central Asia, as well as they
will carry out the function of containment of China towards the West.
A similar goal was supposed for Iraq but apparently it failed. The
Arab states will increasingly be mobilized against Turkey and Iran, as
well as oppose Chinese economic expansion. Modern Islamic radicalism
will drown in the triangle Turkey-Iran-Arab states.
Given the Kurdish component of this geopolitical fight, such a
potential underlies this geopolitical game.
One should keep in mind that this `triangle' could affect differently
the situation in the South Caucasus and other regions. One way or
another, this region will be involved not only in the geopolitical
projects of the Western community and Russia but also the Near East.
The countries which will be ready for such risks and threats will
handle trouble successfully, as well as gain better positions.
A lot will depend on the political and economic presence in the Near
East but the main factor will be the ability to gain partners and
allies. An example is the meaningless and not so well-off existence of
most states of the Baltic and Black Sea regions which have consciously
rejected an active foreign policy and have practically appeared on the
list of the second category of partners. These mistakes should not be
repeated.
Igor Muradyan
14:47 09/05/2013
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index.php/eng/0/politics/view/29841
A new middle class has formed in the Arab states over the past 30
years. `New' means deep westernization and post-modernization of the
Arab and Islamic society. The aristocratic and bureaucratic regimes
are replaced by diversified social `delegates' who are trying to
self-accomplish at the junction of historical and political
developments, extend their power not only on local or national but
also trans-national structures.
Strangely, the Muslim Brothers and all kinds of Tariqahs are a
comfortable environment for strengthening and establishing the new
middle class. The new middle class has an economic and educational
potential, is interested in dynamic stability but, most importantly,
successful economic and social development.
The Islamic model of economy is just a decoration of social capitalism
but not more. The new middle class of the Islamic world has studied
all the economic and social schools and reported to the leaders of
their countries on the chances for development under different
conditions. The choice has been made, and policy is carried out, and
nobody can offer an alternative.
This stratum has only one more or less adequate partner - the Western
community - which supports middle class political groups to come to
power under any form, including in the form of moderate Islamists.
There is no problem or question on which the new social-political
corporation of Arab states and other Islamic countries could not agree
with the West. Radical Islamism has been defeated, and it has not
managed to bring up a new generation of politicians and entrepreneurs
who would lead the Arab revolution and be ready to set up Islamic
democracy in their countries.
Analysts and projectors of the Western community are increasingly
trying to project a model of moderate Islamism and understand that it
is possible to use the experience of Iran without any references to
it.
One wonders who benefitted from this absolutely brutal and risky
scenario of radical Islamism (understanding that it is an ambiguous
notion). Anyone but the Western community or the Islamic world.
Strangely, China and the Confucian-Buddhist civilization benefitted.
There are no other arguments to question the positive results of this
giant experiment for China. Strangely, Russia has left the `fight'
with the Islamists with results which were not so bad. They could have
been far worse. Here is an interesting turn, notably radical Islamism
is replaced by Islamic geopolitics and an effort is made to take it
under control. Of course, geopolitical aspirations mostly level the
alternative - the non-conventional asymmetrical fight. In other words,
the main goal is to relocate the pretensions of Islamic centers of
power to the level of agreed and binding conditions and rules.
Most probably, full or partial withdrawal of NATO troops from
Afghanistan supposes such a state of things. An expansionist state
will be set up in Afghanistan which will have territorial and
political claims to Pakistan, Iran and Central Asia, as well as they
will carry out the function of containment of China towards the West.
A similar goal was supposed for Iraq but apparently it failed. The
Arab states will increasingly be mobilized against Turkey and Iran, as
well as oppose Chinese economic expansion. Modern Islamic radicalism
will drown in the triangle Turkey-Iran-Arab states.
Given the Kurdish component of this geopolitical fight, such a
potential underlies this geopolitical game.
One should keep in mind that this `triangle' could affect differently
the situation in the South Caucasus and other regions. One way or
another, this region will be involved not only in the geopolitical
projects of the Western community and Russia but also the Near East.
The countries which will be ready for such risks and threats will
handle trouble successfully, as well as gain better positions.
A lot will depend on the political and economic presence in the Near
East but the main factor will be the ability to gain partners and
allies. An example is the meaningless and not so well-off existence of
most states of the Baltic and Black Sea regions which have consciously
rejected an active foreign policy and have practically appeared on the
list of the second category of partners. These mistakes should not be
repeated.
Igor Muradyan
14:47 09/05/2013
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index.php/eng/0/politics/view/29841