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Government Has Reached Stage of Tough Confrontation
The replacement of the ministers of economy and finance was assessed
differently. These opinions mostly state that inefficiency of the
economic policy required those replacements, at least for
demonstration purposes. But these replacements might mean something
else. These ministries have the weakest political weight according to
the internal logic. In other words, the economic bloc is the least
protected in the hierarchy of the government therefore the
replacements were in this bloc.
The economic bloc `belongs' to Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan. Tigran
Sargsyan's reappointment is already significant in political terms.
Moreover, it is a medium-term victory. A more important victory would
be the prime minister's `listing' among contenders for the heir of
Serzh Sargsyan.
Tigran Sargsyan remained in his post in a tough internal competition.
Perhaps therefore he decided to sacrifice the ministers of economy and
finance who are also Tigran Sargsyan's team. Hence, it appeared that
the prime minister was strong but his team was the weak link, and
replacements were made in his team.
Meanwhile, it is beyond doubt that the other ministers do not deserve
a replacement less than the ministers of economy and finance.
It is also possible that it was Tigran Sargsyan's team victory. In
other words, a team rotation tactics in the result of which some
members leave or are replaced, becoming and being perceived as
scapegoats, while the team in the face of its leader remains at the
top of the government.
The team competition is becoming primary in the government. It is a
primary issue in all modes of change of government. Now the Armenian
government again enters the mode of transfer which is due in 4-5
years. Not one person but a team will take its turn. In other words,
if the society fails to change the logic of developments and political
life and ensure constitutional rules of change of government, in
2017-2018 the team will accept power from Serzh Sargsyan which will be
more viable as a team, not as an individual leader.
The team factor had a role when Robert Kocharyan was handling the
issue of transfer of power. Kocharyan nominated Vartan Oskanian along
with Serzh Sargsyan. However, Oskanian lost the fight of heirs though
he was Kocharyan's preferred character because Oskanian did not have a
team while Serzh Sargsyan had a strong team, was not an individual in
government.
Robert Kocharyan then established Prosperous Armenia to make a team
for Vartan Oskanian but either time was short to form a viable team or
the personal qualities of the team members were not sufficient to
achieve success in internal struggle.
Most probably, the reason was the second because the team remained
uncompetitive over the years and could not participate in the internal
affairs effectively. Moreover, the longer the experience of the party,
the easier Serzh Sargsyan defeated it.
Now the issue of team fight is again primary. It is not ruled out that
competition will be in a mixed format of a `club' and a `national
team'. In this meaning, the teams will be rearranged. Over the next
few months the ruling system will be in the mode of open transfer
window which will be followed by a tough confrontation.
Hakob Badalyan
17:49 10/05/2013
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index.php/eng/0/comments/view/29849
The replacement of the ministers of economy and finance was assessed
differently. These opinions mostly state that inefficiency of the
economic policy required those replacements, at least for
demonstration purposes. But these replacements might mean something
else. These ministries have the weakest political weight according to
the internal logic. In other words, the economic bloc is the least
protected in the hierarchy of the government therefore the
replacements were in this bloc.
The economic bloc `belongs' to Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan. Tigran
Sargsyan's reappointment is already significant in political terms.
Moreover, it is a medium-term victory. A more important victory would
be the prime minister's `listing' among contenders for the heir of
Serzh Sargsyan.
Tigran Sargsyan remained in his post in a tough internal competition.
Perhaps therefore he decided to sacrifice the ministers of economy and
finance who are also Tigran Sargsyan's team. Hence, it appeared that
the prime minister was strong but his team was the weak link, and
replacements were made in his team.
Meanwhile, it is beyond doubt that the other ministers do not deserve
a replacement less than the ministers of economy and finance.
It is also possible that it was Tigran Sargsyan's team victory. In
other words, a team rotation tactics in the result of which some
members leave or are replaced, becoming and being perceived as
scapegoats, while the team in the face of its leader remains at the
top of the government.
The team competition is becoming primary in the government. It is a
primary issue in all modes of change of government. Now the Armenian
government again enters the mode of transfer which is due in 4-5
years. Not one person but a team will take its turn. In other words,
if the society fails to change the logic of developments and political
life and ensure constitutional rules of change of government, in
2017-2018 the team will accept power from Serzh Sargsyan which will be
more viable as a team, not as an individual leader.
The team factor had a role when Robert Kocharyan was handling the
issue of transfer of power. Kocharyan nominated Vartan Oskanian along
with Serzh Sargsyan. However, Oskanian lost the fight of heirs though
he was Kocharyan's preferred character because Oskanian did not have a
team while Serzh Sargsyan had a strong team, was not an individual in
government.
Robert Kocharyan then established Prosperous Armenia to make a team
for Vartan Oskanian but either time was short to form a viable team or
the personal qualities of the team members were not sufficient to
achieve success in internal struggle.
Most probably, the reason was the second because the team remained
uncompetitive over the years and could not participate in the internal
affairs effectively. Moreover, the longer the experience of the party,
the easier Serzh Sargsyan defeated it.
Now the issue of team fight is again primary. It is not ruled out that
competition will be in a mixed format of a `club' and a `national
team'. In this meaning, the teams will be rearranged. Over the next
few months the ruling system will be in the mode of open transfer
window which will be followed by a tough confrontation.
Hakob Badalyan
17:49 10/05/2013
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index.php/eng/0/comments/view/29849