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IN SEARCH OF EFFECTIVE DETERRENCE
by Aram Avetisyan
April 16, 2013
The recent threats of North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un about attacks
against the U.S. and its ally South Korea continues to be a source of
global concern. A new wave of aggressive rhetoric elevated tensions
to a high level in the South Asian region, including a risk of nuclear
strikes. Regardless how serious those threats may be, they do threaten
stability and regional security, leading to escalation and increasing
possibility of war.
The irresponsible and unpredictable North Korean totalitarian regime
continuously uses escalating rhetoric as a political instrument
blackmailing the world. The aggressive rhetoric and threats of new war
have become more pronounced since the young dictator of North Korea,
Kim Jong Un, came to power after the death of his father in 2012.
American and international figures have reacted. U.S. Secretary
of State John Kerry called Pyongyang's threats of military action
against South Korea and the United States "provocative, dangerous and
reckless." U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon (originally from South
Korea) described the North Korean behavior as being on a "collision
course with the international community". Condemnations came from
many other countries as well.
At the other side of Asia, in Azerbaijan, another dictator who
also inherited power from his father, Ilham Aliev, continuously
uses bellicose rhetoric and threatening to restart a war against
its neighboring Armenia and Nagorno Karabakh. Aliyev and his regime
are known as one of the most corrupted in the world.[1] Fueled by
revenues from oil production, Aliyev and family have stashed their
cash in the offshore zones.[2]
Like North Korea's, Azerbaijan's warmongering should not be
ignored since a new war in the South Caucasus could also turn quite
catastrophic. Taking into consideration the arms build-up launched by
Azerbaijan and its continuing weapons accumulation, a new war could
devastate a whole region and cause dire humanitarian consequences
for all sides of the conflict.
If the international community desires peace and stability in the
South Caucasus, it should take Azerbaijan to task for North Korean
style rhetoric. Azerbaijan's Aliev should as also stop his hate
rhetoric, and prepare his country for peace by ruling out military
solutions and refraining from threats to use force as urged by the
United States and the rest of international community.[3] Otherwise,
while brandishing their arms, dictators of all kinds will continue to
blackmail the world while seeking to keep their compatriots captive
in their dictatorial systems.
Notes
[1] Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP),
"OCCRP Names Aliyev "Person Of The Year", December 31, 2012:
https://reportingproject.net/occrp/index.php/en/ccwatch/cc-watch-indepth/1772-occrp-names-aliyev-qperson-of-the-year-q-
[2] "Offshore Companies
Link Corporate Mogul, Azerbaijan's President", RFR/RL, April 04, 2013:
http://www.rferl.org/content/azerbaijan-aliyev-family-offshore-businesses/24947900.html?fb_action_ids=508187335906797&fb_act ion_types=og.recommends&fb_source=timeline_og&acti on_object_map=%7B%22508187335906797%22%3A481670968 554894%7D&action_type_map=%7B%22508187335906797%22 %3A%22og.recommends%22%7D&action_ref_map=%5B%5D
; See also "Pricey real estate deals in Dubai raise questions
about Azerbaijan's president", The Washington Post, March 5, 2010:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/03/04/AR2010030405390.html
[3] U.S. State Department, April 8, 2013:
http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/dpb/2013/04/207193.htm#AZERBAIJAN
See also: OSCE Minsk Group, Statement by the Heads of Delegation
of the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chair countries, December 6, 2012:
http://www.osce.org/mg/97882
Aram Avetisyan holds Master degree in Public Policy from George Mason
University. He is a former fellow of Kennan Institute of Woodrow
Wilson International Center, Washington DC. Avetisyan also contributes
to the work of the Washington-based Americans for Artsakh NGO. He is
interested in public policy, governance and conflict resolution. Aram
Avetisyan serves as Counselor at the Office of the Nagorno-Karabakh
Republic in the United States (Washington DC).
http://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2013/04/16/in-search-of-effective-deterrence/
by Aram Avetisyan
April 16, 2013
The recent threats of North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un about attacks
against the U.S. and its ally South Korea continues to be a source of
global concern. A new wave of aggressive rhetoric elevated tensions
to a high level in the South Asian region, including a risk of nuclear
strikes. Regardless how serious those threats may be, they do threaten
stability and regional security, leading to escalation and increasing
possibility of war.
The irresponsible and unpredictable North Korean totalitarian regime
continuously uses escalating rhetoric as a political instrument
blackmailing the world. The aggressive rhetoric and threats of new war
have become more pronounced since the young dictator of North Korea,
Kim Jong Un, came to power after the death of his father in 2012.
American and international figures have reacted. U.S. Secretary
of State John Kerry called Pyongyang's threats of military action
against South Korea and the United States "provocative, dangerous and
reckless." U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon (originally from South
Korea) described the North Korean behavior as being on a "collision
course with the international community". Condemnations came from
many other countries as well.
At the other side of Asia, in Azerbaijan, another dictator who
also inherited power from his father, Ilham Aliev, continuously
uses bellicose rhetoric and threatening to restart a war against
its neighboring Armenia and Nagorno Karabakh. Aliyev and his regime
are known as one of the most corrupted in the world.[1] Fueled by
revenues from oil production, Aliyev and family have stashed their
cash in the offshore zones.[2]
Like North Korea's, Azerbaijan's warmongering should not be
ignored since a new war in the South Caucasus could also turn quite
catastrophic. Taking into consideration the arms build-up launched by
Azerbaijan and its continuing weapons accumulation, a new war could
devastate a whole region and cause dire humanitarian consequences
for all sides of the conflict.
If the international community desires peace and stability in the
South Caucasus, it should take Azerbaijan to task for North Korean
style rhetoric. Azerbaijan's Aliev should as also stop his hate
rhetoric, and prepare his country for peace by ruling out military
solutions and refraining from threats to use force as urged by the
United States and the rest of international community.[3] Otherwise,
while brandishing their arms, dictators of all kinds will continue to
blackmail the world while seeking to keep their compatriots captive
in their dictatorial systems.
Notes
[1] Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP),
"OCCRP Names Aliyev "Person Of The Year", December 31, 2012:
https://reportingproject.net/occrp/index.php/en/ccwatch/cc-watch-indepth/1772-occrp-names-aliyev-qperson-of-the-year-q-
[2] "Offshore Companies
Link Corporate Mogul, Azerbaijan's President", RFR/RL, April 04, 2013:
http://www.rferl.org/content/azerbaijan-aliyev-family-offshore-businesses/24947900.html?fb_action_ids=508187335906797&fb_act ion_types=og.recommends&fb_source=timeline_og&acti on_object_map=%7B%22508187335906797%22%3A481670968 554894%7D&action_type_map=%7B%22508187335906797%22 %3A%22og.recommends%22%7D&action_ref_map=%5B%5D
; See also "Pricey real estate deals in Dubai raise questions
about Azerbaijan's president", The Washington Post, March 5, 2010:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/03/04/AR2010030405390.html
[3] U.S. State Department, April 8, 2013:
http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/dpb/2013/04/207193.htm#AZERBAIJAN
See also: OSCE Minsk Group, Statement by the Heads of Delegation
of the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chair countries, December 6, 2012:
http://www.osce.org/mg/97882
Aram Avetisyan holds Master degree in Public Policy from George Mason
University. He is a former fellow of Kennan Institute of Woodrow
Wilson International Center, Washington DC. Avetisyan also contributes
to the work of the Washington-based Americans for Artsakh NGO. He is
interested in public policy, governance and conflict resolution. Aram
Avetisyan serves as Counselor at the Office of the Nagorno-Karabakh
Republic in the United States (Washington DC).
http://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2013/04/16/in-search-of-effective-deterrence/