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Big Issues Are Solved Through Small Tools
What will Russia demand from Armenia to come to terms with Armenia on
the price of gas? After ARG's application to the Public Services
Regulatory Commission it is clear that Russia and Armenia have not
been able to agree, and Moscow has decided to move one step forward.
Perhaps the Kremlin thinks it did everything it could and waited till
the end of elections not to hit the Armenian government from the back.
Later, however, Russia may have thought that it is the Armenian
government that hits Russia from the back by its aspirations to
formalize its relations with the EU in November.
The government is in a difficult situation. The rising gas bills will
intensify social tension, producing a multiplier effect for other
sphere, resulting in inflation. The prices of some products, notably
dairy products have gone up.
The government is facing a complicated issue indeed. It is also very
subtle. The government may try to find a solution to prevent or
postpone the gas bill. It will relieve dissatisfaction and distract
attention from the growth of other prices. So the gas price may appear
on the agenda. Serzh Sargsyan may address people in the nearest future
and say that they will not allow aggravation of the social situation
of the population and afterwards the Public Services Regulatory
Commission may find the application groundless and dismiss it or
accept it partly and instead of 67% growth have a 17, 27 or 37%
growth, as well as postpone the date by one year.
This would produce a tangible effect for the government. No doubt the
government must find a solution because due to the damage of crops by
recent hails agricultural products will be very expensive in summer.
The situation will culminate in the autumn, and if any other force
handles this discontent skillfully, the government may face real
complications. Then the government would hardly fancy Europe, and
Russia could be interested in supporting efforts to generate social
protest in Armenia.
The Armenian government inevitably needs to come to an agreement with
Moscow to resolve the problem of gas price. There is an alternative,
of course, namely establishment of a fair distribution mechanism and
efficient management, as well as Western investments. However, it
objectively will take time, so agreement with Russia is inevitable.
So now the urgent issue is what Russia will demand and whether the
demand will be in the form of a new strategic enterprise,
infrastructure or branch of economy or the demand will be political or
geopolitical, or even military, aiming at expansion of the Russian
military factor in the region or practical application of the existing
factor in any scope to produce a political effect.
Official Yerevan may expect the support of the West to confront this
demand because the government has not established public support
resources. The problem is whether the West will agree to support
Armenia. There is another interesting circumstance. The application
for gas price arrived after important negotiations between the West
and Russia during the successive visits of the U.S. secretary and the
U.K. prime minister to Russia.
These visits produced controversial impressions because on the one
hand an agreement over holding an international conference on Syria
was announced, on the other hand, another U.S.-Russian spy scandal
burst. It is not a surprise that the results of these meetings could
be expressed somehow in Armenia. Not because the West and Russia are
competing for influence on the Caucasus and Armenia and a favorable
correlation of forces. The problem is that the Syrian issue supposes a
wide range of interests and influences, and Armenia is inside it.
Simply, in Armenia big issues are solved through small tools.
Hakob Badalyan
17:18 15/05/2013
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/29890
From: Baghdasarian
What will Russia demand from Armenia to come to terms with Armenia on
the price of gas? After ARG's application to the Public Services
Regulatory Commission it is clear that Russia and Armenia have not
been able to agree, and Moscow has decided to move one step forward.
Perhaps the Kremlin thinks it did everything it could and waited till
the end of elections not to hit the Armenian government from the back.
Later, however, Russia may have thought that it is the Armenian
government that hits Russia from the back by its aspirations to
formalize its relations with the EU in November.
The government is in a difficult situation. The rising gas bills will
intensify social tension, producing a multiplier effect for other
sphere, resulting in inflation. The prices of some products, notably
dairy products have gone up.
The government is facing a complicated issue indeed. It is also very
subtle. The government may try to find a solution to prevent or
postpone the gas bill. It will relieve dissatisfaction and distract
attention from the growth of other prices. So the gas price may appear
on the agenda. Serzh Sargsyan may address people in the nearest future
and say that they will not allow aggravation of the social situation
of the population and afterwards the Public Services Regulatory
Commission may find the application groundless and dismiss it or
accept it partly and instead of 67% growth have a 17, 27 or 37%
growth, as well as postpone the date by one year.
This would produce a tangible effect for the government. No doubt the
government must find a solution because due to the damage of crops by
recent hails agricultural products will be very expensive in summer.
The situation will culminate in the autumn, and if any other force
handles this discontent skillfully, the government may face real
complications. Then the government would hardly fancy Europe, and
Russia could be interested in supporting efforts to generate social
protest in Armenia.
The Armenian government inevitably needs to come to an agreement with
Moscow to resolve the problem of gas price. There is an alternative,
of course, namely establishment of a fair distribution mechanism and
efficient management, as well as Western investments. However, it
objectively will take time, so agreement with Russia is inevitable.
So now the urgent issue is what Russia will demand and whether the
demand will be in the form of a new strategic enterprise,
infrastructure or branch of economy or the demand will be political or
geopolitical, or even military, aiming at expansion of the Russian
military factor in the region or practical application of the existing
factor in any scope to produce a political effect.
Official Yerevan may expect the support of the West to confront this
demand because the government has not established public support
resources. The problem is whether the West will agree to support
Armenia. There is another interesting circumstance. The application
for gas price arrived after important negotiations between the West
and Russia during the successive visits of the U.S. secretary and the
U.K. prime minister to Russia.
These visits produced controversial impressions because on the one
hand an agreement over holding an international conference on Syria
was announced, on the other hand, another U.S.-Russian spy scandal
burst. It is not a surprise that the results of these meetings could
be expressed somehow in Armenia. Not because the West and Russia are
competing for influence on the Caucasus and Armenia and a favorable
correlation of forces. The problem is that the Syrian issue supposes a
wide range of interests and influences, and Armenia is inside it.
Simply, in Armenia big issues are solved through small tools.
Hakob Badalyan
17:18 15/05/2013
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/29890
From: Baghdasarian