Tweet
What's next after the Kurdish Issue : Syria and Armenia?
April 10 2013
Mehmet Fatih Ã-ZTARSU Analyst at Strategic Outlook Institution
When terrorist organization Kurdistan Workers' Party's (PKK) leader
Abdullah Ã-calan called on the PKK to lay down arms during the Nevruz
festivities in Diyarbakır, debates about the settlement process became
hotter and many people started to put forward the idea that the
settlement of the PKK issue will play into Turkey's hands in both
domestic and foreign policy in the short term. The expectation that
having solved its 30-year-old terror problem through peaceful methods,
Turkey will be able to solve its foreign policy issues with a new
momentum is closely associated with the interests of not only Turkey,
but also of neighboring countries and international organizations. It
is thought that, in addition to the new process launched in connection
with the Kurdish issue, solution processes concerning the ongoing
Syrian crisis and the frozen normalization initiative with Armenia are
on the government's agenda. The problems Turkey has been wrestling
with at great cost in connection with the Syrian crisis are
appreciated by the Western countries, but they have so far failed to
come up with a strategy for a solution. It is hard to guess how the
call on the PKK to withdraw from Turkey will affect Turkey's Syria
policy, but Turkey has to develop a foreign policy that supports
common interests in connection with the Kurdish entities that are
growing stronger within the context of the `Greater Middle East'
fancies. On the other hand, solving the Syrian issue in the shortest
time possible and in the interests of Turkey will further boost the
progress made on the Kurdish issue. This would also show that Foreign
Minister Ahmet DavutoÄ?lu's frequently criticized `zero problems and
maximum cooperation' formula is not a political move doomed to
failure. Another thing that will ward of unfair criticisms hurled at
Turkish foreign policy in the short term and will dispel Turkey's
image as a country that is in eternal conflict with its neighbors is
the process of normalization with Armenia. According to the dissident
groups inside Turkey who stick to the Turkey-centric perspective, the
Armenian economy is failing and therefore, Turkey should maintain
policies to preserve the status quo and never make compromises.
However, from an external perspective, it is clear that Turkish
foreign policy has failed in connection with the Armenian issue and
Turkey's image as a country that refrains from making peace is making
more and more people perceive Turkey as wrong even when it is right.
Therefore, Turkey must take radical steps on the Armenian issue as it
did with regard to the Kurdish issue in order to ensure peace in the
region and carve itself more room to maneuver in the international
arena, particularly in the context of the approaching 100th
anniversary of the 1915 incidents. Approaches that dispense with old
habits will shake up the status quo and make the Turkish economy
stronger in the Caucasus region and give Turkish foreign policy an
advantage in the same region. Turkey's normalization with Armenia to
undermine influence of Russia and Iran Today, Russian analysts noted
that Turkey's influence in the Caucasus was thwarted thanks to its
freezing of ties with Armenia and in place of Turkey, Iran and other
regional players are increasing their influence in the Caucasus. They
also voice concerns that Turkey's normalization of relations with
Armenia will undermine Russia's and Iran's influence in the region.
Stressing that it is worrying to see increased anti-Russian and
anti-Iranian sentiments in Armenia, these analysts maintain that the
Armenian opposition that advocates good ties with Turkey is doomed to
fail. Indeed, the opposition groups are growing stronger in Armenia
and accuse the Armenian government of making the country a satellite
of Russia and they are worried about the increasing Iranian influence
in the country. In this context, the Dashnak Party harshly criticized
the Armenian government for leasing a parcel of grasslands in Syunik
province to Iran, noting that they don't need the agricultural tools
Iran will provide as rent. Armenia has no choice but to develop its
economic and military ties with Russia and Iran and its increasing
dependence on these two countries is posing a threat to Turkey's
security as Russia reinforces its military presence near Turkish
borders. As new Defense Minister of Russia, Sergey Shoigu stressed
during his visit to Armenia on the 21st anniversary of the founding of
the Armenian army, Russia sees its military presence in the region as
indispensable. Turkey's normalization processes, as well as the joint
actions it will adopt in cooperation with Baku surrounding the
centennial of the events of 1915, are of crucial importance. Yet Baku
should be more constructive, instead of reacting to every step Turkey
takes in the normalization process. For instance, Azerbaijan should
motivate Turkey instead of hurling harsh criticism regarding the
initiative to launch flights between Yerevan and Van in April, which
was then aborted, like previous initiatives. Turkey has never ceased
to disapprove of or criticize the Armenian occupation of
Nagorno-Karabakh, and in this context, it shut down its border
crossings in response. Like this policy, Baku's Nagorno-Karabakh
policy has also failed to produce any result. For this reason,
stereotyped criticisms of Turkey's moves to reinforce its presence in
the region are doing harm to Turkish foreign policy. Different
approaches should be adopted and the old and failing policies should
be avoided. The first thing to do in the current atmosphere of the
settlement of the Kurdish issue is to correctly analyze the
developments that are of close interest to Turkey and to identify and
take the necessary steps at once. Only in this way can Turkey
implement the successful policies that would ward off the criticism
voiced by western countries and opponents against DavutoÄ?lu's zero
problems formula.
Read more at: http://en.aravot.am/2013/04/10/153525/
© 1998 - 2013 Aravot ` News from Armenia
From: Baghdasarian
April 10 2013
Mehmet Fatih Ã-ZTARSU Analyst at Strategic Outlook Institution
When terrorist organization Kurdistan Workers' Party's (PKK) leader
Abdullah Ã-calan called on the PKK to lay down arms during the Nevruz
festivities in Diyarbakır, debates about the settlement process became
hotter and many people started to put forward the idea that the
settlement of the PKK issue will play into Turkey's hands in both
domestic and foreign policy in the short term. The expectation that
having solved its 30-year-old terror problem through peaceful methods,
Turkey will be able to solve its foreign policy issues with a new
momentum is closely associated with the interests of not only Turkey,
but also of neighboring countries and international organizations. It
is thought that, in addition to the new process launched in connection
with the Kurdish issue, solution processes concerning the ongoing
Syrian crisis and the frozen normalization initiative with Armenia are
on the government's agenda. The problems Turkey has been wrestling
with at great cost in connection with the Syrian crisis are
appreciated by the Western countries, but they have so far failed to
come up with a strategy for a solution. It is hard to guess how the
call on the PKK to withdraw from Turkey will affect Turkey's Syria
policy, but Turkey has to develop a foreign policy that supports
common interests in connection with the Kurdish entities that are
growing stronger within the context of the `Greater Middle East'
fancies. On the other hand, solving the Syrian issue in the shortest
time possible and in the interests of Turkey will further boost the
progress made on the Kurdish issue. This would also show that Foreign
Minister Ahmet DavutoÄ?lu's frequently criticized `zero problems and
maximum cooperation' formula is not a political move doomed to
failure. Another thing that will ward of unfair criticisms hurled at
Turkish foreign policy in the short term and will dispel Turkey's
image as a country that is in eternal conflict with its neighbors is
the process of normalization with Armenia. According to the dissident
groups inside Turkey who stick to the Turkey-centric perspective, the
Armenian economy is failing and therefore, Turkey should maintain
policies to preserve the status quo and never make compromises.
However, from an external perspective, it is clear that Turkish
foreign policy has failed in connection with the Armenian issue and
Turkey's image as a country that refrains from making peace is making
more and more people perceive Turkey as wrong even when it is right.
Therefore, Turkey must take radical steps on the Armenian issue as it
did with regard to the Kurdish issue in order to ensure peace in the
region and carve itself more room to maneuver in the international
arena, particularly in the context of the approaching 100th
anniversary of the 1915 incidents. Approaches that dispense with old
habits will shake up the status quo and make the Turkish economy
stronger in the Caucasus region and give Turkish foreign policy an
advantage in the same region. Turkey's normalization with Armenia to
undermine influence of Russia and Iran Today, Russian analysts noted
that Turkey's influence in the Caucasus was thwarted thanks to its
freezing of ties with Armenia and in place of Turkey, Iran and other
regional players are increasing their influence in the Caucasus. They
also voice concerns that Turkey's normalization of relations with
Armenia will undermine Russia's and Iran's influence in the region.
Stressing that it is worrying to see increased anti-Russian and
anti-Iranian sentiments in Armenia, these analysts maintain that the
Armenian opposition that advocates good ties with Turkey is doomed to
fail. Indeed, the opposition groups are growing stronger in Armenia
and accuse the Armenian government of making the country a satellite
of Russia and they are worried about the increasing Iranian influence
in the country. In this context, the Dashnak Party harshly criticized
the Armenian government for leasing a parcel of grasslands in Syunik
province to Iran, noting that they don't need the agricultural tools
Iran will provide as rent. Armenia has no choice but to develop its
economic and military ties with Russia and Iran and its increasing
dependence on these two countries is posing a threat to Turkey's
security as Russia reinforces its military presence near Turkish
borders. As new Defense Minister of Russia, Sergey Shoigu stressed
during his visit to Armenia on the 21st anniversary of the founding of
the Armenian army, Russia sees its military presence in the region as
indispensable. Turkey's normalization processes, as well as the joint
actions it will adopt in cooperation with Baku surrounding the
centennial of the events of 1915, are of crucial importance. Yet Baku
should be more constructive, instead of reacting to every step Turkey
takes in the normalization process. For instance, Azerbaijan should
motivate Turkey instead of hurling harsh criticism regarding the
initiative to launch flights between Yerevan and Van in April, which
was then aborted, like previous initiatives. Turkey has never ceased
to disapprove of or criticize the Armenian occupation of
Nagorno-Karabakh, and in this context, it shut down its border
crossings in response. Like this policy, Baku's Nagorno-Karabakh
policy has also failed to produce any result. For this reason,
stereotyped criticisms of Turkey's moves to reinforce its presence in
the region are doing harm to Turkish foreign policy. Different
approaches should be adopted and the old and failing policies should
be avoided. The first thing to do in the current atmosphere of the
settlement of the Kurdish issue is to correctly analyze the
developments that are of close interest to Turkey and to identify and
take the necessary steps at once. Only in this way can Turkey
implement the successful policies that would ward off the criticism
voiced by western countries and opponents against DavutoÄ?lu's zero
problems formula.
Read more at: http://en.aravot.am/2013/04/10/153525/
© 1998 - 2013 Aravot ` News from Armenia
From: Baghdasarian