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The Price Of Gas And Legitimacy

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  • The Price Of Gas And Legitimacy

    THE PRICE OF GAS AND LEGITIMACY

    There is no need to look for anything sophisticated in the foreign
    policy of Russia. It is very simple not only for Armenia and the
    Caucasus but also Europe. Unlike the Western states, Russia does not
    built its policy with other countries on sophisticated information,
    technological devices and multilevel games. The Russian factor is
    very simple. It has unlimited resources, and by changing the price
    for resources it can dictate its policy across the Eurasian continent.

    This is the Russian conduct in regard to Armenia and Europe with direct
    and unhidden messages. So, there is no need to look for anything else,
    especially get disappointed with the Russians. This is the price,
    at least the short-term price that we pay for hesitating to join the
    Eurasian Economic Union and deviating from the Russian pole.

    First, Russia is pursuing its own interests, it is another issue how
    we posture against these interests. It is necessary to stop the savior
    v executor discourses on Russia and understand that what is going on
    is politics. Armenia has been able to lay out areas of cooperation
    with other poles of influence but unfortunately it has failed to
    establish such relations that would possibly reduce trouble.

    The price of gas is also in this context. The problem has some
    nuances. First, is it worthwhile complaining of our authorities if they
    have nothing to do about the price because it was not them to raise the
    price of gas. It is worthwhile to protest against the government but
    not for the gas price. The government is one of the actors of building
    such odious relations with Russia. They wanted to be participants
    of this game, consuming and generating a mythical discourse about
    the elder brother. At the same time, the policy of the government
    resulted in yielding resources and companies handling them to Russia.

    Now it is difficult to evoke all the mistakes of the past and start
    resolving all the old problems. There is neither resource, nor time.

    However, one thing is clear. Diversification of foreign policy,
    at least partial, is an important result, even if the conditions
    are not good enough. At the same time, it is necessary to understand
    that diversification means frequent clashes of different interests of
    different parties. And in order not to depend heavily on these clashes
    and not to suffer much, it is necessary to assess the consequences. It
    may sound like populism but we need to have and develop an economy
    where the public will not be concerned much about rising gas price,
    having in addition to this several arguments that it is worthwhile
    paying additionally for a diversified foreign policy and minimum
    losses for the state.

    The backlash to the gas price is a revolt against the Armenian
    government, the system, not against Russia. The revolt is expressed
    against the gas price but the deeper reason is other. Obviously,
    not only the economic policy but also politics in general has failed
    in Armenia.

    There has been the same situation for several years, only conventions
    have changed. New values are sought to establish our own policies
    and governance. It used to be nationalism by the government. Then
    this discourse was not effective, and Serzh Sargsyan declared
    modernization but he was unable to handle it, even at the level
    of public expectations. Now the government lacks any concept of
    implementation of the state, and has led to a point where the issue
    of the state does not interest the citizens. It is not accidental
    that one of the reactions to the rise of gas price was emigration.

    Without sudden changes Armenia will integrate with the world. In
    technological terms, this is the Western world, while technologies
    are the fastest and most available means of development, at least as
    a consumer. At the same time, it is clear that the European market
    will attract the Armenian business more. Interests will become more
    diverse, the Russian factor will lose its importance. Russian pressure
    will follow.

    There is one more nuance - the Armenian-Russian strategic relations in
    the form of relations between armed forces. This is the last reserve.

    Armenia is not doing anything for diversification. Whatever is done
    is done with the precaution of military bases. However, the prospect
    of diverse interests will impose two important things - a more open
    and transparent economic system which will build up public confidence
    in the government.

    The natural consequence of this change must be the potential to build
    free external relations. In both cases Russia will try to pursue its
    own interests and do it on odious resources accumulated in Armenia,
    using every opportunity to destabilize the situation and put pressure
    on the government. In any case, the issue is the legitimacy of the
    authorities which is central, if not methodic, in terms of Armenian
    politics. An illegitimate government cannot implement its interests
    autonomously, especially requesting something from the public. In this
    meaning, the raise of gas price will boost the price of legitimacy
    for the authorities and the system in general.

    Levon Margaryan 12:41 17/05/2013 Story from Lragir.am News:
    http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/29906

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