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THE PRICE OF GAS AND LEGITIMACY
There is no need to look for anything sophisticated in the foreign
policy of Russia. It is very simple not only for Armenia and the
Caucasus but also Europe. Unlike the Western states, Russia does not
built its policy with other countries on sophisticated information,
technological devices and multilevel games. The Russian factor is
very simple. It has unlimited resources, and by changing the price
for resources it can dictate its policy across the Eurasian continent.
This is the Russian conduct in regard to Armenia and Europe with direct
and unhidden messages. So, there is no need to look for anything else,
especially get disappointed with the Russians. This is the price,
at least the short-term price that we pay for hesitating to join the
Eurasian Economic Union and deviating from the Russian pole.
First, Russia is pursuing its own interests, it is another issue how
we posture against these interests. It is necessary to stop the savior
v executor discourses on Russia and understand that what is going on
is politics. Armenia has been able to lay out areas of cooperation
with other poles of influence but unfortunately it has failed to
establish such relations that would possibly reduce trouble.
The price of gas is also in this context. The problem has some
nuances. First, is it worthwhile complaining of our authorities if they
have nothing to do about the price because it was not them to raise the
price of gas. It is worthwhile to protest against the government but
not for the gas price. The government is one of the actors of building
such odious relations with Russia. They wanted to be participants
of this game, consuming and generating a mythical discourse about
the elder brother. At the same time, the policy of the government
resulted in yielding resources and companies handling them to Russia.
Now it is difficult to evoke all the mistakes of the past and start
resolving all the old problems. There is neither resource, nor time.
However, one thing is clear. Diversification of foreign policy,
at least partial, is an important result, even if the conditions
are not good enough. At the same time, it is necessary to understand
that diversification means frequent clashes of different interests of
different parties. And in order not to depend heavily on these clashes
and not to suffer much, it is necessary to assess the consequences. It
may sound like populism but we need to have and develop an economy
where the public will not be concerned much about rising gas price,
having in addition to this several arguments that it is worthwhile
paying additionally for a diversified foreign policy and minimum
losses for the state.
The backlash to the gas price is a revolt against the Armenian
government, the system, not against Russia. The revolt is expressed
against the gas price but the deeper reason is other. Obviously,
not only the economic policy but also politics in general has failed
in Armenia.
There has been the same situation for several years, only conventions
have changed. New values are sought to establish our own policies
and governance. It used to be nationalism by the government. Then
this discourse was not effective, and Serzh Sargsyan declared
modernization but he was unable to handle it, even at the level
of public expectations. Now the government lacks any concept of
implementation of the state, and has led to a point where the issue
of the state does not interest the citizens. It is not accidental
that one of the reactions to the rise of gas price was emigration.
Without sudden changes Armenia will integrate with the world. In
technological terms, this is the Western world, while technologies
are the fastest and most available means of development, at least as
a consumer. At the same time, it is clear that the European market
will attract the Armenian business more. Interests will become more
diverse, the Russian factor will lose its importance. Russian pressure
will follow.
There is one more nuance - the Armenian-Russian strategic relations in
the form of relations between armed forces. This is the last reserve.
Armenia is not doing anything for diversification. Whatever is done
is done with the precaution of military bases. However, the prospect
of diverse interests will impose two important things - a more open
and transparent economic system which will build up public confidence
in the government.
The natural consequence of this change must be the potential to build
free external relations. In both cases Russia will try to pursue its
own interests and do it on odious resources accumulated in Armenia,
using every opportunity to destabilize the situation and put pressure
on the government. In any case, the issue is the legitimacy of the
authorities which is central, if not methodic, in terms of Armenian
politics. An illegitimate government cannot implement its interests
autonomously, especially requesting something from the public. In this
meaning, the raise of gas price will boost the price of legitimacy
for the authorities and the system in general.
Levon Margaryan 12:41 17/05/2013 Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/29906
There is no need to look for anything sophisticated in the foreign
policy of Russia. It is very simple not only for Armenia and the
Caucasus but also Europe. Unlike the Western states, Russia does not
built its policy with other countries on sophisticated information,
technological devices and multilevel games. The Russian factor is
very simple. It has unlimited resources, and by changing the price
for resources it can dictate its policy across the Eurasian continent.
This is the Russian conduct in regard to Armenia and Europe with direct
and unhidden messages. So, there is no need to look for anything else,
especially get disappointed with the Russians. This is the price,
at least the short-term price that we pay for hesitating to join the
Eurasian Economic Union and deviating from the Russian pole.
First, Russia is pursuing its own interests, it is another issue how
we posture against these interests. It is necessary to stop the savior
v executor discourses on Russia and understand that what is going on
is politics. Armenia has been able to lay out areas of cooperation
with other poles of influence but unfortunately it has failed to
establish such relations that would possibly reduce trouble.
The price of gas is also in this context. The problem has some
nuances. First, is it worthwhile complaining of our authorities if they
have nothing to do about the price because it was not them to raise the
price of gas. It is worthwhile to protest against the government but
not for the gas price. The government is one of the actors of building
such odious relations with Russia. They wanted to be participants
of this game, consuming and generating a mythical discourse about
the elder brother. At the same time, the policy of the government
resulted in yielding resources and companies handling them to Russia.
Now it is difficult to evoke all the mistakes of the past and start
resolving all the old problems. There is neither resource, nor time.
However, one thing is clear. Diversification of foreign policy,
at least partial, is an important result, even if the conditions
are not good enough. At the same time, it is necessary to understand
that diversification means frequent clashes of different interests of
different parties. And in order not to depend heavily on these clashes
and not to suffer much, it is necessary to assess the consequences. It
may sound like populism but we need to have and develop an economy
where the public will not be concerned much about rising gas price,
having in addition to this several arguments that it is worthwhile
paying additionally for a diversified foreign policy and minimum
losses for the state.
The backlash to the gas price is a revolt against the Armenian
government, the system, not against Russia. The revolt is expressed
against the gas price but the deeper reason is other. Obviously,
not only the economic policy but also politics in general has failed
in Armenia.
There has been the same situation for several years, only conventions
have changed. New values are sought to establish our own policies
and governance. It used to be nationalism by the government. Then
this discourse was not effective, and Serzh Sargsyan declared
modernization but he was unable to handle it, even at the level
of public expectations. Now the government lacks any concept of
implementation of the state, and has led to a point where the issue
of the state does not interest the citizens. It is not accidental
that one of the reactions to the rise of gas price was emigration.
Without sudden changes Armenia will integrate with the world. In
technological terms, this is the Western world, while technologies
are the fastest and most available means of development, at least as
a consumer. At the same time, it is clear that the European market
will attract the Armenian business more. Interests will become more
diverse, the Russian factor will lose its importance. Russian pressure
will follow.
There is one more nuance - the Armenian-Russian strategic relations in
the form of relations between armed forces. This is the last reserve.
Armenia is not doing anything for diversification. Whatever is done
is done with the precaution of military bases. However, the prospect
of diverse interests will impose two important things - a more open
and transparent economic system which will build up public confidence
in the government.
The natural consequence of this change must be the potential to build
free external relations. In both cases Russia will try to pursue its
own interests and do it on odious resources accumulated in Armenia,
using every opportunity to destabilize the situation and put pressure
on the government. In any case, the issue is the legitimacy of the
authorities which is central, if not methodic, in terms of Armenian
politics. An illegitimate government cannot implement its interests
autonomously, especially requesting something from the public. In this
meaning, the raise of gas price will boost the price of legitimacy
for the authorities and the system in general.
Levon Margaryan 12:41 17/05/2013 Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/29906