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ALEXANDER ZINKER: STRENGTHENING ITS BASES IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS, RUSSIA WILL KEEP RESHAPING THE PRO-WESTERN POLICY OF GEORGIA AND AZERBAIJAN
ArmInfo's interview with Dr. Alexander Zinker, Director of the
Institute of Eastern European and CIS countries (Israel), ex-member of
the Knesset.
by David Stepanyan
Thursday, May 30, 13:46
Do you see any upward trends in the US and European influence in the
South Caucasus? Would you forecast the most effective direction of
Armenia's integration vector?
Historically, the Caucasus has been interesting to big actors in the
region, and the fight for the influence in the region gathered pace
following the collapse of the Soviet Union. The USA and its NATO
allies began ousting Russia from the region after the U.S. Congress
announced the Caucasus an area of vital interests of the United States
in 1997. In fact, a conflict of political and economic interests
of the countries in the region and outside it - Russia, USA, EU,
Turkey, Iran and other countries and military and economic alliances -
emerged in early 21st century. However, the EU policy in the region has
intensified amid the sluggish policy of the USA in the South Caucasus.
As part of the Eastern Partnership Project, all the three countries
in the region are conducting active bilateral negotiations with the
EU for the Association Agreement, which will come to replace the
agreements of partnership and cooperation that were signed yet in
1996. The new agreements cover a broader spectrum of issues and will
become a new legal basis for the relations of the South Caucasus
states and Brussels. I think the Armenia-EU expanding cooperation
may become an effective direction of Armenia's integration vector.
However, this issue must be studied without fanatics. Armenia is not
likely to join EU. I am not sure that it is necessary. Consequently,
if Armenia's full integration into Europe is difficult to achieve, one
should admit that geographic, economic and, finally, political-legal
objectives point at the Eurasian direction.
NATO influences Georgia and Azerbaijan by means of Turkey. Armenia
is a member of the CSTO, while Georgia is striving for NATO. Does it
mean that Russia keeps its influence in the South Caucasus by means
of Armenia and the balance of forces is shifting in NATO's favor?
The influence of Russia in the South Caucasus is decreasing. Guided
by the post-empire admissions however Russia is resolute to remain
the key foreign player in the South Caucasus in the short-term and
mid-term outlook. Watching the Caucasus as an area of its influence,
Russia is keen to see a NATO less active and more restrained in the
region. Extension of the NATO area in the South Caucasus by Georgia
and Azerbaijan joining the alliance, which will not happen in the near
future, as well as with deployment of the military contingent and the
elements of the military infrastructure of the USA and NATO in the
territory of the region would deteriorate the situation in the Caucasus
direction for Russia. This problem has become more relevant after
the USA and Turkey agreed on deployment of the elements of the NATO
antiballistic missile defense in the territory of Turkey. To support
the relative balance of forces in the region, Moscow has strengthened
its military base in Gyumri bordering to Turkey. This may be assessed
like an attempt of creation of a counterstand for security of Russia
and the southern borders and for the western containment. It is very
much possible that Russia may use its 102-nd military base in Gyumri to
take preventive measures in case if Turkey launches military actions
as NATO's ally. For its part, having the only front in the conflict
with Azerbaijan, Armenia will use the 102-nd military base and its
joining the CSTO anti-missile defense system as a constraining factor
and a trump card against Baku, which keeps strengthening its military
potential. In this context, one can expect Moscow to keep fighting
for the regional influence through strengthening of the military and
technical potential of its bases in the South Caucasus, trying in
such a way to reshape the pro-Western policy of Georgia and Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijani Mass Media have reported that Azerbaijan has terminated all
the negotiations with Russia for purchase of new weapons and military
hardware. Over the last 5 years, Azerbaijan has acquired weapons for
1.7 billion from Russia. Simultaneously, the Azerbaijani media reported
on 'an unexpected softening of terms of the sale of weapons for the
South Caucasus countries by the European producers.' Will Israel
take advantage of the situation and boost export to Azerbaijan?
Today Israel delivers military equipment to Azerbaijan in rather a high
volume. For this reason, I don't think that the sudden softening of
the weapon sale conditions for the South Caucasus states will affect
the volumes of the current and future contracts with Azerbaijan. One
needs to realize that business is first, and all the rest problems
of the regional influence come after it. Azerbaijan owns big funds,
and Israel produces high quality military equipment. In this context,
I should also say that Baku purchases limited volume of arms from the
USA due to opposition by representatives of the pro-Armenian members
of US Congress. Azerbaijan's weapon purchases from Russia are also
limited because of the latter's alliance with Armenia. There is no
such problem with Israel.
Armenia demands the world community to recognize the fact of the
Genocide of Armenia in Ottoman Turkey. Do you think that this policy
of Armenia pursues the right goals or it needs any corrections or
alterations?
Armenia has been fairly demanding from the world community to recognize
the fact of the Armenian Genocide in Ottoman Turkey during the World
War I. I should confess that the fight for the historical memory
of that tragedy bears fruit. I hope very much that Israel will also
join the states that have already recognized the fact of the Armenian
Genocide. So, Armenia has been acting correctly from the strategic
point of view. As for the tactical steps, it has to think about a
little correction of its attitude towardsTurkey and try to use the
Israeli principle of relations with the Palestinians. If we rephrase
this principle for the Armenian-Turkish relations, it may be voiced
as follows: to develop trade and economic relations with Turkey,
as if there is no problem of the Genocide recognition and harshly
demand Turkey to recognize the Armenian Genocide, as if there are no
business relations with Turkey. To be honest, there is one problem
here: it takes two to tango.
Recent air attacks of the Israeli air forces on the territory of
Syria aimed to prevent arms delivery, by official data. What goals
did that operation really pursue? How much does the replacement of
predictable Bashar Assad's regime by the decentralized rebels meet
Israel's interests?
Tel-Aviv does not interfere with the conflict in Syria because of many
reasons. First, if Syrian opposition topples Bashar Assad's regime,
it will hardly become a friend of Israel. At the beginning of the
Syrian conflict, Israel thought that it is impossible to topple Assad,
and it is better for Jerusalem if he remains in the power.
However, for the last year we have come to the conclusion that
Assad is doomed, but we are not going to support the rebels and
go on conducting the wait-and-see policy. Both Assad's victory
and that of the rebels, which may possibly want to attack Israel,
are bad scenarios of ending of the Syrian conflict for Israel. It is
clear today that Israel will not let modern weapons to fall into the
hands of such terrorist organizations like "Hizballah". As for the
recent air attack of the territory of Syria by Israel's air forces,
I should confess that they were really made first of all not to allow
modern weapons to occur into the hands of Hizballah. Moreover, by its
attack Israel warned all the parties to the Syrian conflict that the
attempts of using or transferring chemical weapons to terrorists may
lead to another big tragedy, which nobody wants.
Tel Aviv perceives Moscow's decision to deliver S-300 air defense
missiles to Syria as a threat, as it may lose its air domination and
refuse neutrality in the Syrian conflict. The Israeli prime minister
personally tried to persuade the Russian president not to deliver
S-300 to Syria. How will that problem be settled?
Syria's air defense is considered one of the best in the world
also thanks to Russia. As regards the contract for delivery of S-300
missiles, it was signed yet in 2010, but was suspended. Experts in the
USA and Israel say that possible sale of S-300 to Syria will not only
strengthen Assad, but also trigger a new stage in the fight of Russia
and USA for influence in the region. In this situation, it is Israel
that seeks stability trying not to allow the conflict to expand and the
Islamic radicals in Syria and Lebanon to get armed. Under pressure of
Tehran, President of Syria Assad had already ordered the army not to
impede actions of the militants on the border with Israel against the
Jewish country. In addition, the religious leader of Iran Ayatollah
Khomeini is known to have charged Commander of the Qods Force General
Soleimani to 'tackle Israel' and supervise the situation in Syria. In
this situation of the Syrian crisis, great hopes are pinned with the
expected international conference that will involve representatives
of the Syrian authorities and opposition. The event is initiated
by U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister
Sergey Lavrov. Zinker thinks that the only obstacle to the conference
is that it is very difficult to make the conflicting parties sit at a
negotiating table. The Syrian leadership has agreed to negotiate, while
the United Opposition has set a precondition to its participation in
the negotiations in Geneva i.e. the opposition demands resignation of
president Assad. Nevertheless, in the light of all the latest events,
I hope that the political methods of managing the Syrian crisis are
not run out. It is high time for the leading superpowers to display a
more serious attitude towards possible consequences of a large-scale
conflict in the Middle East.
http://www.arminfo.am/index.cfm?objectid=D33C5300-C90D-11E2-8072F6327207157C
ArmInfo's interview with Dr. Alexander Zinker, Director of the
Institute of Eastern European and CIS countries (Israel), ex-member of
the Knesset.
by David Stepanyan
Thursday, May 30, 13:46
Do you see any upward trends in the US and European influence in the
South Caucasus? Would you forecast the most effective direction of
Armenia's integration vector?
Historically, the Caucasus has been interesting to big actors in the
region, and the fight for the influence in the region gathered pace
following the collapse of the Soviet Union. The USA and its NATO
allies began ousting Russia from the region after the U.S. Congress
announced the Caucasus an area of vital interests of the United States
in 1997. In fact, a conflict of political and economic interests
of the countries in the region and outside it - Russia, USA, EU,
Turkey, Iran and other countries and military and economic alliances -
emerged in early 21st century. However, the EU policy in the region has
intensified amid the sluggish policy of the USA in the South Caucasus.
As part of the Eastern Partnership Project, all the three countries
in the region are conducting active bilateral negotiations with the
EU for the Association Agreement, which will come to replace the
agreements of partnership and cooperation that were signed yet in
1996. The new agreements cover a broader spectrum of issues and will
become a new legal basis for the relations of the South Caucasus
states and Brussels. I think the Armenia-EU expanding cooperation
may become an effective direction of Armenia's integration vector.
However, this issue must be studied without fanatics. Armenia is not
likely to join EU. I am not sure that it is necessary. Consequently,
if Armenia's full integration into Europe is difficult to achieve, one
should admit that geographic, economic and, finally, political-legal
objectives point at the Eurasian direction.
NATO influences Georgia and Azerbaijan by means of Turkey. Armenia
is a member of the CSTO, while Georgia is striving for NATO. Does it
mean that Russia keeps its influence in the South Caucasus by means
of Armenia and the balance of forces is shifting in NATO's favor?
The influence of Russia in the South Caucasus is decreasing. Guided
by the post-empire admissions however Russia is resolute to remain
the key foreign player in the South Caucasus in the short-term and
mid-term outlook. Watching the Caucasus as an area of its influence,
Russia is keen to see a NATO less active and more restrained in the
region. Extension of the NATO area in the South Caucasus by Georgia
and Azerbaijan joining the alliance, which will not happen in the near
future, as well as with deployment of the military contingent and the
elements of the military infrastructure of the USA and NATO in the
territory of the region would deteriorate the situation in the Caucasus
direction for Russia. This problem has become more relevant after
the USA and Turkey agreed on deployment of the elements of the NATO
antiballistic missile defense in the territory of Turkey. To support
the relative balance of forces in the region, Moscow has strengthened
its military base in Gyumri bordering to Turkey. This may be assessed
like an attempt of creation of a counterstand for security of Russia
and the southern borders and for the western containment. It is very
much possible that Russia may use its 102-nd military base in Gyumri to
take preventive measures in case if Turkey launches military actions
as NATO's ally. For its part, having the only front in the conflict
with Azerbaijan, Armenia will use the 102-nd military base and its
joining the CSTO anti-missile defense system as a constraining factor
and a trump card against Baku, which keeps strengthening its military
potential. In this context, one can expect Moscow to keep fighting
for the regional influence through strengthening of the military and
technical potential of its bases in the South Caucasus, trying in
such a way to reshape the pro-Western policy of Georgia and Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijani Mass Media have reported that Azerbaijan has terminated all
the negotiations with Russia for purchase of new weapons and military
hardware. Over the last 5 years, Azerbaijan has acquired weapons for
1.7 billion from Russia. Simultaneously, the Azerbaijani media reported
on 'an unexpected softening of terms of the sale of weapons for the
South Caucasus countries by the European producers.' Will Israel
take advantage of the situation and boost export to Azerbaijan?
Today Israel delivers military equipment to Azerbaijan in rather a high
volume. For this reason, I don't think that the sudden softening of
the weapon sale conditions for the South Caucasus states will affect
the volumes of the current and future contracts with Azerbaijan. One
needs to realize that business is first, and all the rest problems
of the regional influence come after it. Azerbaijan owns big funds,
and Israel produces high quality military equipment. In this context,
I should also say that Baku purchases limited volume of arms from the
USA due to opposition by representatives of the pro-Armenian members
of US Congress. Azerbaijan's weapon purchases from Russia are also
limited because of the latter's alliance with Armenia. There is no
such problem with Israel.
Armenia demands the world community to recognize the fact of the
Genocide of Armenia in Ottoman Turkey. Do you think that this policy
of Armenia pursues the right goals or it needs any corrections or
alterations?
Armenia has been fairly demanding from the world community to recognize
the fact of the Armenian Genocide in Ottoman Turkey during the World
War I. I should confess that the fight for the historical memory
of that tragedy bears fruit. I hope very much that Israel will also
join the states that have already recognized the fact of the Armenian
Genocide. So, Armenia has been acting correctly from the strategic
point of view. As for the tactical steps, it has to think about a
little correction of its attitude towardsTurkey and try to use the
Israeli principle of relations with the Palestinians. If we rephrase
this principle for the Armenian-Turkish relations, it may be voiced
as follows: to develop trade and economic relations with Turkey,
as if there is no problem of the Genocide recognition and harshly
demand Turkey to recognize the Armenian Genocide, as if there are no
business relations with Turkey. To be honest, there is one problem
here: it takes two to tango.
Recent air attacks of the Israeli air forces on the territory of
Syria aimed to prevent arms delivery, by official data. What goals
did that operation really pursue? How much does the replacement of
predictable Bashar Assad's regime by the decentralized rebels meet
Israel's interests?
Tel-Aviv does not interfere with the conflict in Syria because of many
reasons. First, if Syrian opposition topples Bashar Assad's regime,
it will hardly become a friend of Israel. At the beginning of the
Syrian conflict, Israel thought that it is impossible to topple Assad,
and it is better for Jerusalem if he remains in the power.
However, for the last year we have come to the conclusion that
Assad is doomed, but we are not going to support the rebels and
go on conducting the wait-and-see policy. Both Assad's victory
and that of the rebels, which may possibly want to attack Israel,
are bad scenarios of ending of the Syrian conflict for Israel. It is
clear today that Israel will not let modern weapons to fall into the
hands of such terrorist organizations like "Hizballah". As for the
recent air attack of the territory of Syria by Israel's air forces,
I should confess that they were really made first of all not to allow
modern weapons to occur into the hands of Hizballah. Moreover, by its
attack Israel warned all the parties to the Syrian conflict that the
attempts of using or transferring chemical weapons to terrorists may
lead to another big tragedy, which nobody wants.
Tel Aviv perceives Moscow's decision to deliver S-300 air defense
missiles to Syria as a threat, as it may lose its air domination and
refuse neutrality in the Syrian conflict. The Israeli prime minister
personally tried to persuade the Russian president not to deliver
S-300 to Syria. How will that problem be settled?
Syria's air defense is considered one of the best in the world
also thanks to Russia. As regards the contract for delivery of S-300
missiles, it was signed yet in 2010, but was suspended. Experts in the
USA and Israel say that possible sale of S-300 to Syria will not only
strengthen Assad, but also trigger a new stage in the fight of Russia
and USA for influence in the region. In this situation, it is Israel
that seeks stability trying not to allow the conflict to expand and the
Islamic radicals in Syria and Lebanon to get armed. Under pressure of
Tehran, President of Syria Assad had already ordered the army not to
impede actions of the militants on the border with Israel against the
Jewish country. In addition, the religious leader of Iran Ayatollah
Khomeini is known to have charged Commander of the Qods Force General
Soleimani to 'tackle Israel' and supervise the situation in Syria. In
this situation of the Syrian crisis, great hopes are pinned with the
expected international conference that will involve representatives
of the Syrian authorities and opposition. The event is initiated
by U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister
Sergey Lavrov. Zinker thinks that the only obstacle to the conference
is that it is very difficult to make the conflicting parties sit at a
negotiating table. The Syrian leadership has agreed to negotiate, while
the United Opposition has set a precondition to its participation in
the negotiations in Geneva i.e. the opposition demands resignation of
president Assad. Nevertheless, in the light of all the latest events,
I hope that the political methods of managing the Syrian crisis are
not run out. It is high time for the leading superpowers to display a
more serious attitude towards possible consequences of a large-scale
conflict in the Middle East.
http://www.arminfo.am/index.cfm?objectid=D33C5300-C90D-11E2-8072F6327207157C