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  • The Invisible Cyber War

    THE INVISIBLE CYBER WAR

    http://www.noravank.am/eng/articles/detail.php?ELEMENT_ID=12390
    31.10.2013

    Yiannos Charalambides
    Doctor of International Relations and European Studies

    Introduction

    The international system is still dominated by sovereign nation states
    which constitute the main structural actors of the global system.
    However, nation states are not the only players acting in the global
    landscape. Markets or multinational colossi, even terrorist
    organisations such as Al Qaeda also operate in the international field
    (Charalambides, 2013, pp.71-77; Katzman, 2005 pp.4-5, 7-8; Bjelopera,
    2011 pp. 36-37) with the purpose of changing the structure of the
    international system. In this respect, these international actors
    pursue to replace the dominant role that states retain in the
    international arena (Charalambides, 2013, pp. 71-75, 45-52).
    Technology constitutes one of the main constituent elements of power
    and therefore what remains to be examined is the role that technology
    can play in the international system in terms of the power game that
    is evolving. (Charalambides, 2010, pp. 34-35; Ifestos and Platias,
    1992, pp. 83-84; Morgenthau, 1978pp. 9-14; Dougherty and Pfaltzgraff
    1992, p 115).

    This article deals with the importance of technology in the current
    era and particularly in the context of a new type of war, namely cyber
    war. This type of war is relevant to structural changes occurring in
    the international system, with technology playing its own significant
    role (Charalambides, 2013 pp. 12-13).

    The present analysis refers to the various types of wars and attempts
    to give a definition regarding cyber warfare and explain how it works
    in practice. In this respect, we examine the way that cyber war
    affects the evolution of the international system and the resultant
    structural changes as well as the significance that cyber war plays in
    the international arena along with technology. In this reality, a
    relevant question which is raised and that we must answer is the
    following: whether the classical structural components of strength
    such as military power, territory and population size, the morale of
    the army and leadership are enough for a victorious outcome or whether
    technology itself and/or in combination with other means may bring
    dramatic changes regarding the component structure of wars and the
    structure of the international system (Charalambides, 2010 Dougherty
    and Pfaltzgraff 1992, p. 168; Gilpin 1981). So far, Great Powers seem
    to be invincible. However, two relevant questions must be answered:
    whether this hypothesis is correct and whether technology could
    increase the possibilities of restoring the old legend of David who
    defeated Goliath.

    1. Various types of wars

    In the current period, the international system suffers from various
    types of wars.

    Firstly, classical wars in which the parties involved use conventional
    or even nuclear military means. It is a war that erupts between two or
    more states. Civil and/or religious wars -like the one ongoing in
    Syria (CNN News, 2012; CNN News, 2012a; CNN News, 2012b) - are
    included in the category of classical wars and usually induce such
    structural changes within the states that affect international affairs
    either in a regional or global level. Egypt constitutes an example
    through which we can observe the consequences of an uprising which
    brought about structural changes. Although Mubarak's regime had been
    constructed on a basis of deficient democracy, it succeeded to become
    a stabilising factor in the regional and global system. Mubarak's
    regime worked hard to achieve the consolidation of stability and peace
    with neighbouring Israel. When the regime fell, tensions erupted
    across the border with Israel (CNN, 2011, Charalambides 2012, p. 6).
    On June 24, 2012 the leader of the Muslim Brotherhood, Mohamed Morsi
    was officially declared as the winner of the first free Egyptian
    Presidential elections by a narrow margin over Ahmed Shafik. President
    Morsi gained 51,7% of the vote, while Ahmed Shafik received 48, 2%
    (CNN News, 2012c; BBC News, 2012). The political situation is volatile
    and both the US and Israel are concerned about the political, social
    and institutional role that the Muslim Brotherhood holds within the
    new Egyptian political system. The question is whether the uprising of
    the Egyptian people will lead to the establishment of a democratic
    political system or whether the Muslim Brotherhood will attempt to
    consolidate a political system, which would be based on and ruled by
    Islamic Law. Egypt is suffering political instability and runs the
    risk of a civil and religious war. Hence, the situation in Egypt
    induced structural changes within the state and affected the stability
    of the regional system.

    Secondly, war on terrorism constitutes a sui generis type of war
    between states and terrorist organisations such as Al Qaeda, whose
    main aim is to alter the current structure of the international system
    (Bin Laden, 2005; Almasmari, Jamjoom and Abedine, 2012).
    Simultaneously, we are witnessing a perpetual conflict between two
    types of Globalisation; Western and Islamist. Regarding the latter
    there is no doubt that it aims at establishing a Global Caliphate
    (Elsea, 2007, pp. 10-15; Lecker 2008, pp. 251-253). The mentioned
    ongoing conflict also takes the form of a religious war.

    Thirdly, war among states and markets led to the current economic
    crisis. The markets attempt to play a dominant role in the
    international system and are not invisible. Therefore a relevant
    question should be asked: what is the market? A short definition
    answering this question could be set as follows: it is a legal and
    economic process through which the rules of supply and demand come
    together to define and determine the market prices. The market is not
    an abstract set of factors and actors functioning in the international
    system. On the contrary, it is a vibrant organisation acting in the
    international system and it is comprised of:

    All types of companies, (small, medium, large) enterprises and any
    other entities engaged in any commercial, economic or financial
    activity as well as the individuals who lead and manage companies and
    industries; namely owners, shareholders, managers and directors.
    Productive powers (forces), which is the combination of means of
    production and labour (tools, machinery, land and infrastructure), as
    well as the human labour power (Marx 1955).
    Capital and money are instruments used by entrepreneurs in order to
    generate profit, wealth and growth. However, they are also used by
    employees (civilians) and labour forces in general, as income (i.e.
    salary, interest income, dividends etc), in order to cover their
    consuming needs.
    The banking sector, national, private and international banking
    institutions and bankers that play a key role in local and global
    financial affairs.
    The Stock Exchange and stockbrokers.
    International organisations, banks and groups of powerful countries
    regulating political and economic affairs such as the G-20, the
    International Monetary Fund, the Global Bank For Reconstruction And
    Development, as well as the World Trade Organisation (WTO).
    All persons who are directly or indirectly involved in the market,
    such as lawyers, bankers, accountants, politicians, workers (labour
    force) and consumers, trade and labour unions and their members,
    politicians and political parties, ministers and governments. Most
    often - political parties, politicians and governments - are
    financially sponsored by the business world or civilians -namely
    bankers, businessmen or ordinary voters.
    Energy - Power providers and all the factors that the power supply
    chain consists of. Both states and/or individuals provide conventional
    or renewable sources of energy, engineers and equipment so that energy
    arrives at the end-user destination (industrial units, households) and
    thereby the brokers define the exchange price of energy goods.
    Research centres, universities and other forms of innovation
    providers, who can create new commodities or new ways of developing
    and thus enhancing, the quality of the products.
    Central Governments which are obliged to provide security and
    stability to all entities performing economic and other activities in
    the context of the state's apparatus.
    International and local financial and commercial laws and other
    regulators through which we can measure and evaluate the level of
    compliance between rules, laws, directives and regulations on the one
    hand and the level of actual implementation on the other.
    `Credit Rating Agencies' which are authorised to evaluate and thus
    upgrade or downgrade private banks and the banking sector in general.
    In fact, they hold a key regulatory role in the global financial and
    political system (Standard & Poor's, Moody's and Fitch Ratings). The
    `Credit Rating Agencies' are used by investors, issuers, investment
    banks, broker-dealers and governments for security reasons in terms of
    protecting their financial interests and thus reducing the risk of
    their investment. In this respect, the `Credit Rating Agencies' draw
    up reports in which the credit risk is analyzed with the aim of
    protecting the investors and increasing the efficiency of the market.
    Due to the current economic crisis both the US and the EU (including
    its Member States) put in question the credibility of the `Credit
    Rating Agencies'. Markets constitute vibrant organisations where human
    beings play, operate, act and react and thereby psychology is always
    turned into a political and economic instrument which might be used by
    the `Credit Rating Agencies' to influence markets in favouring
    `suspicious interests'. The time and the way a report is drawn up,
    often set forth the economic and political situation of a state, its
    banking sector, financial status and its sovereign debt, affect either
    negatively or positively the market and the economy of state in
    question, as well as the markets in general.
    Currency value and exchange rates as decisive instruments of the
    market and for financial transactions.

    2. Definition of Cyber war

    Beyond the types of wars mentioned above, another type of war is also
    noteworthy. It is the cyber war, which is inherent to technological
    development and is always used in the context of a wide range of wars.
    The actors involved in such a war use high level technologies. Cyber
    war is part of the wider electronic war and its technological
    capabilities are exploited as indispensable instruments for the
    victorious outcome of a classical, conventional or any other kind of
    conflict. In attempting to define what `cyber warfare' is, the U.S.
    government security expert, Richard A. Clarke maintains:

    `When the terms of `Cyber war' are used in this book, they refer to
    actions by a nation-state to penetrate another nation's computers or
    networks for the purposes of causing damage or disruption' (Clarke
    2010, p. 6).

    In addition, the Economist wrote that cyberspace constitutes `the
    fifth domain of warfare' (in addition to land, sea, air and space)
    (Economist 2010) and William J. Lynn, U.S. Deputy Secretary of
    Defense, underlines that "as a doctrinal matter, the Pentagon has
    formally recognized cyberspace as a new domain in warfare. . . [which]
    has become just as critical to military operations as land, sea, air,
    and space' (Lynn 2010, p.97-98).

    These are some short definitions of cyber war. However, one could
    assert that cyber war cannot be precisely defined. Pursuant to a study
    requested by the Subcommittee on Security and Defence and issued by
    the European Parliament:

    `There is no common definition of what might constitute `cyber
    warfare'. The 2007 attacks on Estonia, the 2008 attacks on Georgia,
    the deployment of Stunxet, or the ongoing high level cyber-espionage
    were all called cyber war at some point. Even cyber attacks that most
    likely have nothing to do with conflicts between states, such as
    `hacktivism', or cyber attacks in the wake of the 2010 WikiLeaks
    affair, or in support of the February - March 2011 Arab revolts have
    been called cyber war, implying in effect that the concept of warfare
    is not limited anymore to mere nation - states. In the absence of a
    common definition, most of the EU Member States and the Commission
    have studiously avoided using the term cyber warfare in official
    documents and often prefer neutral such as `cyber espionage', `cyber
    attack' or `cyber defence'' (European Parliament, 2012, p. 9) .

    2.1 Various levels of cyber war

    According to the so-called AF-SAB model there are three levels of
    military cyber attacks:

    The First Level of military cyber attacks is the `network wars' or
    ``system administrator versus system administrator'. This includes
    mobile malicious logic, Trojan attacks, basic phishing attempts,
    common exploits, website defacement and other common headaches falling
    within this category'. This category of attacks is the least serious,
    including `purported state-sponsored espionage attacks on the
    government such as the `Moonlight Maze' and `Titan Rain' campaign'.
    These attacks can be addressed by proper network security precautions'
    (European Parliament, 2012, p. 7). `Titan Rain' was a sophisticated
    and cyber espionage attack which `began in 2003 against the US and led
    to the wide-scale breach of classified US government and military
    systems, with loss of 10-12 terabytes of information' (European
    Parliament, 2012, p.52). This attack and others had been organised and
    performed by non-state Chinese hackers. Over a four year period, they
    launched similar attacks on government systems and EU member states
    and EU institutions. Albeit the attackers were not directly associated
    with the Chinese State, they probably cooperated with the Chinese
    Security Service as they were under an official command also having
    connections with high level political leadership.

    The Second Level cyber attacks fall under `cyber - adjunct to kinetic
    combat'. The operator attempts to achieve a `kinetic effect' in
    conjunction to a conventional attack, such as an air strike.
    Therefore, the operator uses malicious logic to defuse an air defence
    network. This example exemplifies level 2 cyber attacks (European
    Parliament, 2012, pp. 7-8). The 2008 cyber attacks on Georgia also
    fall under this category. These attacks had been combined with
    military conventional operations and therefore had a kinetic effect.
    During the war on Georgia, the Russians defaced websites whilst they
    also launched attacks on critical energy infrastructures. Another
    relevant case of Level 2 cyber war practice was the one between Syria
    and Israel in 2007, when the Israelis used the American cyber-weapon,
    named `Senior Suter', in order to defuse the Syrian Antiaircraft
    Network and successfully launched their airstrikes against Syria and
    precisely hit supposed nuclear facilities on the ground.

    The last and Third Level is `malicious manipulation', which
    specialists consider as the most dangerous attacks. These attacks:
    `are the ones to be feared, they are covert, they are planned, they
    are orchestrated and they can use widespread havoc and disruption
    without the victims realizing their problems are cyber related'.

    According to a study issued by the services of the European
    Parliament, `Level 3 attacks also conceal a wide range of possible
    behaviour - this can include the simple manipulation of a spreadsheet,
    to Stuxnet and similar purported limited attacks on critical
    infrastructure, to mass -casualty attacks on an entire nation's
    critical infrastructure or even the misrouting of the internet itself'
    (European Parliament 2012, p. 8).

    It is of utmost importance to underline that with a reference to
    `Stuxnet' we mean a `cyber missile' which had been `directed squarely
    at the Iranian nuclear program by targeting its uranium enrichment
    capability' (European Parliament p. 52, The Economist, 2010). As the
    report of the European Parliament maintains: `There has been clear
    evidence that Stuxnet was successful in damaging and delaying the
    Iranian enrichment program'(European Parliament, 2012, p. 52, Farwell
    and Rohozinski 2011, pp. 23-40). This attack was not the first one
    which used the invisible `weapon' of high technology. As Thomas Reed
    underlines, an advisor to President Ronald Reagan alleged that the CIA
    used a logistic bomb in 1982 to destroy a Soviet pipeline and he adds:

    `It was programmed to go haywire, to reset pump speeds and valve
    settings to produce pressures far beyond those acceptable to the
    pipeline joints and welds. The result was the most monumental
    non-nuclear explosion and fire ever seen from space' (Reed, 2004, p.
    269).

    2.2 American superiority

    It is evident why the US is considered the champion state in
    cyber-warfare and cyber-defence. Beyond the cases mentioned above, in
    1991, during the First Iraqi War, the US impressed the international
    community with its advanced skills of cyber-war. Years later, in 2010,
    NATO - led by US - was the first organisation that realised the
    necessity to address the `new threats' stemming from cyber-attacks.
    This necessity became more obvious after the 2007 attack on Estonia,
    which entailed web - vandalism. In particular, over a three week
    period the attackers caused disruption to Estonian public services and
    banking sector. The attackers were probably Russian hackers and the
    attack was a strong shock for the international community. It was an
    episode that alarmed relevant stakeholders and led NATO to rethink and
    take pertinent decisions regarding its defensive strategic concept. At
    the Lisbon Summit in November 2010, NATO established the Cyber Defence
    Management Authority (CDMA), with the competence to coordinate and
    shape strategic decision-making on cyber-defence within the Alliance
    (European Parliament, 2012, p. 26, NATO 2010a). However, China and
    Russia are also involved in all levels of cyber-war, as they have no
    other alternative than to respond to the requirements of the
    contemporary era, in order to serve and protect their national
    interests by undertaking all kinds of preventive measures. In fact
    they not only defend themselves, but also follow an aggressive policy.
    In this respect, one should view cyber-attacks through the lens of
    political practices. Hereupon, we may underline that quantitative
    analysis of cyber-war cannot be focused exclusively on the three
    aforementioned levels, but also on the civilian, commercial, economic,
    administrative, banking or military sectors which the cyber-attacks
    usually target. In this respect, such a cyber trade-economic war is
    currently underway between China and the US. Pursuant to a
    congressional report titled `China-US Trade Issues', Wayne M. Morrison
    maintains:

    "Many U.S. analysts and policymakers contend that the Chinese
    government is a major source of cyber-economic espionage against U.S.
    firms. For example, Representative Mike Rogers, chairman of the House
    Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, stated at an October 4,
    2011, hearing that attributing this espionage isn't easy, but talk to
    any private sector cyber analyst, and they will tell you there is
    little doubt that this is a massive campaign being conducted by the
    Chinese government. I don't believe that there is a precedent in
    history for such a massive and sustained intelligence effort by a
    government to blatantly steal commercial data and intellectual
    property. China's economic espionage has reached an intolerable level
    and I believe that the United States and our allies in Europe and Asia
    have an obligation to confront Beijing and demand that they put a stop
    to this piracy'.

    According to a report by the U.S. Office of the Director of National
    Intelligence (DNI): `Chinese actors are the world's most active and
    persistent perpetrators of economic espionage. U.S. private sector
    firms and cyber security specialists have reported an onslaught of
    computer network intrusions that have originated in China, but the IC
    (Intelligence Community) cannot confirm who was responsible.' The
    report goes on to warn that `China will continue to be driven by its
    longstanding policy of 'catching up fast and surpassing' Western
    powers. The growing interrelationships between Chinese and U.S
    companies - such as the employment of Chinese-national technical
    experts at U.S. facilities and outsourcing U.S. production and R&D to
    facilities in China - will offer Chinese government agencies and
    businesses increasing opportunities to collect sensitive US economic
    information' (Morrison 2012, p. 33).

    2.3 China, Russia and hackers' army

    China and Russia hold a privileged position in the list of the main
    global cyber powers, with a huge army of hackers operating
    particularly against US interests. Most of the hackers have no
    official relations with the Chinese or Russian governments. However it
    is a commonly known `secret' that the Chinese government has tacitly
    approved the hackers' attacks. The Chinese concept on Cyber-warfare,
    titled `Integrated Network Electronic Warfare', is similar to the US
    Network Electronic Warfare. In this context civilian sources (People's
    of war) are mobilised in order to attempt operating at a strategic
    level of conflict, namely `information warfare'. This information
    warfare is divided in three categories: Media warfare, Psychological
    warfare and Legal warfare (European Parliament, p. 55). The Chinese
    have a very strong system of defensive and offensive capabilities,
    whilst there is a real army, the `Patriot Hackers' which are
    responsible for the attacks against western governments and interests.
    The `Red Hacker Alliance' is the largest club of attackers, numbering
    400,000 members. The Pentagon had to take special measures in order to
    prevent their attacks (European Parliament, 2012, p. 57).

    Along the same lines, Russia is concentrated on the means and measures
    that it should take in order to protect its civil society,
    military/governmental infrastructures and apparatus from US hackers.
    In terms of `soft and smart power' the US pursues to influence the
    Russian public opinion and furthermore the decision making process
    (Nye, 1991; Nye 2004, pp. 2, 34-35, 44-45; 2006; Crocker et al, 2007,
    p.13; Etheridge, 2009). This is a strategy named `reflexive control'.
    In accordance with this concept `one enemy transmits the reasons and
    bases for making decisions to the other' (Thomas 2004). This is a
    strategic method through which the US influences certain public
    opinions that are under the pressure of authoritarian regimes, and
    pushes them to revolt. Iran and the Arab Spring constitute evident
    cases of this strategic method used by the US cyber-war services. All
    relevant information, reasons and data which can influence the
    procedure of the decisions taken by repressed public opinions are
    promoted through the cyberspace. Certainly, the result of this method,
    inherent to a `smart power' strategic concept, is not always positive.
    Beyond the influence that the US may exert over foreign public
    opinions, there are other factors acting in a society and within an
    authoritarian political system. These factors affect the procedure of
    the decision making. Such a strategic goal becomes easier when the
    foreign public opinion is ready to adopt a propaganda promoted through
    the internet. The success or failure of this policy also depends on
    the skills of the intelligence services of the state being under the
    US attack. The key issue is whether they successfully react against
    such a `cyber war game'. Therefore, the Russian information doctrine
    focuses on protecting the public opinion and the Russian `spiritual
    renewal' by establishing segments of `information psychological' and
    `information technical means' (Bikkenin, 2003).

    3. A landmark case

    The `WikiLeaks case', widely known as `Cablegate' - the publication of
    thousands of top secret US documents - shows the electronically
    sophisticated character of the new era; an era where technology
    constitutes a primary instrument for the secret services and for any
    other skilled person or organisation. The publication of numerous top
    secret documents (251,287 diplomatic cables) shed light on dimming
    aspects of secret diplomacy and illustrated how diplomats comment and
    evaluate each other behind the scenes (WikiLeaks 2012). On August 20,
    2010, the Swedish prosecutor issued an arrest warrant against the
    founder of WikiLeaks, Julian Assange amid two accusations. One
    concerns the allegation of rape and the other of molestation. Assange
    denied the charges arguing that he was a victim of a smear campaign.
    The Swedish Authority requested his extradition from Britain where
    Assange found shelter in the embassy of Ecuador. Assange applied for
    asylum and the Ecuadorian Authorities on August 16, 2012 took a
    positive decision triggering a diplomatic episode with Britain. The
    Foreign Minister of Ecuador stated that his country granted asylum to
    Assange `because he will be politically persecuted if extradited'
    (Lai, 2012). The British government was clear about its intention of
    arresting and extraditing him to Sweden. Assange feared he would be
    sent by the Swedish Authorities to the US where he might face the
    death penalty. The US Authorities accused him of publishing top secret
    cables (official US documents), putting the country's security at
    risk. On August 14, 2012, in an effort to explain the upcoming
    positive decision - which would be issued two days later - the
    Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa stated:

    `The process in Sweden needs to be reviewed, you have to consider the
    possibility of extradition to the United States, if there's a secret
    tribunal there, if there's any risk of a death penalty. It requires a
    large amount of information, an analysis of international law to make
    an informed, absolutely responsible and sovereign decision' (Correa,
    2012, cited in CNN Wire Staff 2012).

    `WikiLeaks' cast a shadow on the US security system and humiliated the
    American secret services. It is in fact a landmark case which
    illustrates both the importance that technology plays in international
    affairs and the new types of wars which noiselessly occur not only
    among states, but also between states and non-state actors. In this
    case we observe the way technology pulverises the gap of strength
    existing between a Great Power and a private organisation of
    electronic media.

    Conclusions

    Technology constitutes a structural component factor of strength used
    by states in order to serve their national interests in the context of
    a trade/economic cyber war, like those underway between the US and
    China or the US and Russia, without excluding that other countries
    will also get involved. This is a conflict among the Titans of the
    international system with the US playing the role of Zeus.
    Furthermore, technology and cyber war are also used in the frame of
    conventional wars and the war on terror. In fact, it is a combination
    of an economic/commercial and cyber war upon which the new era is
    reflected. It illustrates how complicated international relations are
    in the contemporary period. It is evident that there are "two or three
    types of wars", one existing within the other, without the need to use
    the traditional, classical military means. Particularly, the Army uses
    cyber mechanisms as an indispensable tool for espionage purposes in
    the frame of a wider strategic plan with the aim of promoting and
    protecting national interests. In parallel, the tools and weapons of
    cyber war are also used in conventional wars. Advanced technology is
    always of outmost importance for the international actors in order to
    win a victory.

    The international system is already in a new era in which structural
    changes occur and power coexists with technological development and
    capacities. An invisible cyber war, among Great Powers, such as the
    US, Russia and China is underway. Certainly, other countries, apart
    from Great Powers, are already involved in a cyber war for which new
    types of armies have been formed. Hackers now play the role of `modern
    soldiers', thus evincing the eminent importance that technology holds
    as an indispensable factor of national strength (Dougherty and
    Pfaltzgraff 1992, p. 116). In this reality, the structure and methods
    of wars tend to change along with the structure of the international
    system where the state still holds its dominant role. However, markets
    and terrorist organisations such as Al Qaeda spare no efforts to
    replace the states' dominant position. Through the lens of the
    `WikeLeaks case' we observe a new political phenomenon stemming from
    technology and reflecting the growing significance of technology and
    the changes occurring in the international system where an electronic
    media non-governmental organisation got involved in a cyber war with
    the US. The US defeat until this moment is obvious. This incident
    brings to mind the well known story of David and Goliath. And thus
    history repeats itself by using other means. At that time, it was the
    sling and stones, nowadays it is technology.

    May, 2013

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