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Our Solution Will Be Painful
Interview with Arthur Sakunts, head of Helsinki Citizens' Assembly
Vanadzor Office
Mr. Sakunts, the Customs Union is not looking forward to Armenia. The
presidents of Belarus and Kazakhstan said Armenia cannot join the
Customs Union soon. On the other hand, Armenia lost the chance to sign
the Association Agreement. Was Russia's purpose to thwart the signing
of the Association Agreement?
Certainly, this fully fits the concept of Russian policy to abort the
signing of the Association Agreement with any of the countries of
Eastern Partnership. In particular, Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia have
publicly reiterated their determination to sign the Association
Agreement with the EU. And Russia was expected to abort it, which was
done by putting forth the idea of the Customs Union. The Customs Union
or the Eurasian Economic Union were set up earlier but when those
structures were established, Russia did not display any willingness to
involve Armenia. Armenia did not take part in the establishment of the
Eurasian Economic Union or the Customs Union so it could not join
because the Customs Union was set up by part of the founders of the
EEU (Belarus, Russia, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan). There were no claims
to Armenia, and this process began immediately before the signing of
the agreement with the Eastern Partnership. Hence, Armenia's
membership to the Customs Union is something titular though besides
the September 3 statement the government decided to set up an
interagency commission to prepare the legal framework ahead of
membership. Interestingly, after October 25 it became clear that the
purpose is not membership to the Customs Union but making Armenia obey
Russia.
After Putin came to power in 2000, it became obvious that Russia has
adopted the policy of reanimation of the Soviet Union. He is a
totalitarian leader, and in order to hide his nude he does not want to
let a country with such resources to become marginal, like the Soviet
Union was for many years. Russia is up for creating a pact of
countries like Armenia to hide its totalitarian nude and justify its
existence in this civilization.
Unfortunately, we missed an exceptional chance to get out of the
history hole and face another civilization where we would stand a
chance to develop. The Association Agreement could be a peculiar
Marshall Plan for Armenia.
Why did we give up on it?
The government lacks political will. Even though we are trying to
understand external factors, Putin's policy, internal factors are much
more important as they enabled the external factors. And the internal
factors are the underdeveloped democratic institutions, total
corruption and unpredictability of activities of the government. This
unpredictability enabled Putin's dictatorial urge. This dual situation
is a serious challenge.
What should those people who are against Serzh Sargsyan's decisions
do? Are there ways out? What should be done later after the summit in
Vilnius?
Mobilization of forces is needed. I don't think we can change the
situation but it must be organized. The problem is that the political
institutions were supposed to resolve the problem of political
dependence on Putin's Russia. This is the only political plan that may
exist for any political force. Besides, serious organizational work
should be done. I understand that it requires huge financial and human
resources. The first obstacle is disinformation and focus on
pseudo-issues. We must be able to get over it, which is hard work.
Meetings, discussions, public discourse is the way leading to change.
An agenda of debate should be formed.
Why is there no public discourse or consolidation? Are there too many ambitions?
The political forces lack a clear stance on the Customs Union. It is
weird that there is no attitude to such a challenge. In February 2013
the political forces refraining from the presidential election, which
was the same as refraining from politics. However, we would not
imagine that they would also refrain from a challenge that relates to
our independence.
Taron Margaryan stated that fare will rise. Will it be the last drop?
Everything is possible. Rise in fare may cause mobilization. But the
government learned a good lesson from the decentralized, spontaneous,
multi-layer civil movement of summer and they will try to prevent it.
As far as I understand, the government is making everything worse, and
the situation is getting out of control, and civic movements will grow
and intensify due to deterioration of social conditions and may lead
to the claim of Serzh Sargsyan's removal. There are no unsolvable
problems. Simply this time our solution will be painful, we will lose
people. Armenia has no time, and we must be mindful. Challenges are
more serious than we could imagine.
Siranuysh Papyan
12:41 09/11/2013
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/interview/view/31274
Interview with Arthur Sakunts, head of Helsinki Citizens' Assembly
Vanadzor Office
Mr. Sakunts, the Customs Union is not looking forward to Armenia. The
presidents of Belarus and Kazakhstan said Armenia cannot join the
Customs Union soon. On the other hand, Armenia lost the chance to sign
the Association Agreement. Was Russia's purpose to thwart the signing
of the Association Agreement?
Certainly, this fully fits the concept of Russian policy to abort the
signing of the Association Agreement with any of the countries of
Eastern Partnership. In particular, Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia have
publicly reiterated their determination to sign the Association
Agreement with the EU. And Russia was expected to abort it, which was
done by putting forth the idea of the Customs Union. The Customs Union
or the Eurasian Economic Union were set up earlier but when those
structures were established, Russia did not display any willingness to
involve Armenia. Armenia did not take part in the establishment of the
Eurasian Economic Union or the Customs Union so it could not join
because the Customs Union was set up by part of the founders of the
EEU (Belarus, Russia, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan). There were no claims
to Armenia, and this process began immediately before the signing of
the agreement with the Eastern Partnership. Hence, Armenia's
membership to the Customs Union is something titular though besides
the September 3 statement the government decided to set up an
interagency commission to prepare the legal framework ahead of
membership. Interestingly, after October 25 it became clear that the
purpose is not membership to the Customs Union but making Armenia obey
Russia.
After Putin came to power in 2000, it became obvious that Russia has
adopted the policy of reanimation of the Soviet Union. He is a
totalitarian leader, and in order to hide his nude he does not want to
let a country with such resources to become marginal, like the Soviet
Union was for many years. Russia is up for creating a pact of
countries like Armenia to hide its totalitarian nude and justify its
existence in this civilization.
Unfortunately, we missed an exceptional chance to get out of the
history hole and face another civilization where we would stand a
chance to develop. The Association Agreement could be a peculiar
Marshall Plan for Armenia.
Why did we give up on it?
The government lacks political will. Even though we are trying to
understand external factors, Putin's policy, internal factors are much
more important as they enabled the external factors. And the internal
factors are the underdeveloped democratic institutions, total
corruption and unpredictability of activities of the government. This
unpredictability enabled Putin's dictatorial urge. This dual situation
is a serious challenge.
What should those people who are against Serzh Sargsyan's decisions
do? Are there ways out? What should be done later after the summit in
Vilnius?
Mobilization of forces is needed. I don't think we can change the
situation but it must be organized. The problem is that the political
institutions were supposed to resolve the problem of political
dependence on Putin's Russia. This is the only political plan that may
exist for any political force. Besides, serious organizational work
should be done. I understand that it requires huge financial and human
resources. The first obstacle is disinformation and focus on
pseudo-issues. We must be able to get over it, which is hard work.
Meetings, discussions, public discourse is the way leading to change.
An agenda of debate should be formed.
Why is there no public discourse or consolidation? Are there too many ambitions?
The political forces lack a clear stance on the Customs Union. It is
weird that there is no attitude to such a challenge. In February 2013
the political forces refraining from the presidential election, which
was the same as refraining from politics. However, we would not
imagine that they would also refrain from a challenge that relates to
our independence.
Taron Margaryan stated that fare will rise. Will it be the last drop?
Everything is possible. Rise in fare may cause mobilization. But the
government learned a good lesson from the decentralized, spontaneous,
multi-layer civil movement of summer and they will try to prevent it.
As far as I understand, the government is making everything worse, and
the situation is getting out of control, and civic movements will grow
and intensify due to deterioration of social conditions and may lead
to the claim of Serzh Sargsyan's removal. There are no unsolvable
problems. Simply this time our solution will be painful, we will lose
people. Armenia has no time, and we must be mindful. Challenges are
more serious than we could imagine.
Siranuysh Papyan
12:41 09/11/2013
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/interview/view/31274