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"WINDOW-DOOR" OPTIMISM OF JAMES WARLICK
http://artsakhtert.com/eng/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1266: window-door-optimism-of-james-warlick&catid=3:all&Itemid=4
Friday, 08 November 2013 14:35
As you know, on 4-5 November, OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairmen Igor Popov
(Russia), Jacques Faure (France), and James Warlick (USA) paid a
visit to the region, in the framework of which they met with the
Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan. This time, the international
mediators limited themselves to the visits to Yerevan and Baku,
which was dictated by the basic goal of the visit - to achieve the
consent of the Presidents of the two countries to a new meeting and
to seat them at the negotiation table after nearly a two-year break.
To the credit of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairmen, they achieved
their goal. In their joint statement on the results of the visit,
the co-chairs noted that "Serzh Sargsyan and Ilham Aliyev reiterated
their readiness to meet in November 2013 to clarify their positions
on the conflict settlement and to discuss the possibilities of moving
forward".
But, this is in regard to the so-called program-minimum. And what about
the program-maximum, i.e. the process of the Azerbaijani-Karabakh
conflict settlement? Can we hope for success here? To be objective,
the current realities in the negotiation process (if we can generally
speak about such in the existing situation) do not inspire any
optimism. But, optimism has been consistently radiated by American
James Warlick since almost the first day of his tenure as the Minsk
Group co-chairman.And this time, both ahead of and during the visit
to the region, the Washington diplomat who, by the way, is much
more talkative than his Russian and French colleagues, distinguished
himself with some optimistic statements. Mr.
Warlick believes that after the presidential elections in Armenia
andAzerbaijan "a window of opportunities for achieving an agreement on
Karabakh was opened". And additionally: "It is important to keep the
doors open, to maintain ties, and to conduct productive negotiations
on moving forward". One has just to guess what these "window-door"
possibilities are, which, according to him, were lacking lately. Did
Ilham Aliyev shared a secret with him during the "positive discussions
with President Ilham Aliyev" (Warlick's characteristic - auth.),
which was not done with the other two co-chairs who do not embark on
conceptual reflections on windows and doors? Frankly speaking, James
Warlick previously expressed, to say the least, contradictory thoughts
about the prospects of the Azerbaijani-Karabakh conflict settlement
as well. He has not either avoided the fragility this time. Surely,
we can graciously attribute it to his little experience as the OSCE
Minsk Group co-chairman.
And yet ... On the one hand, the American diplomat speaks about the
appeared possibilities and on the other hand - about the necessity
of displaying political will by the parties. But, the availability
of political will for the conflict resolution, with the obligatory
consideration of its objective historical, political-legal, and
consequently, for the achievement of comprehensive peace is, as we
believe, one of the major factors creating these opportunities. And
what are the constructive actions of the Azerbaijani authorities,
in which James Warlick discovered the political will of Aliyev whom
the mediators had reportedly to persuade so long for the generous
consent to meet with President Serzh Sargsyan? In this context,
one can rightly state the lack of political will in Azerbaijan. But,
organization of a presidential meeting is just a procedural issue. As
for the deep-seated problems, they are much more complicated. And
there is no doubt that the next meeting of the Presidents of Armenia
and Azerbaijan will not lead to real progress.
In fact, James Warlick realizes this as well, because he acknowledged
that "the negotiations on Nagorno Karabakh are hard, and it is a
difficult choice, which must be made". Noting that the co-chairs'
task is to promote comprehensive negotiations, he informed that they
were working at the basic principles of settlement, reminding the
major three of them - the right of peoples to self-determination,
territorial integrity, and non-use of force or threat of force.
On the basis of the first principle, the people of Artsakh legally
perfectly exercised its right to independent statehood, ultimately
establishing the NagornoKarabakhRepublic. Today, actually all
the sensible people realize that Nagorno Karabakh cannot be part
of Azerbaijan. As for the principle of territorial integrity, to
which Azerbaijan constantly refers, we'd simply limit ourselves to
the statement of former Chairman of the PACE, the late Lord David
Russell-Johnston: "When resolving a conflict, people are definitely
much more important than the factor of territorial integrity of
a country".
As for the last of the aforementioned triad of principles - non-use of
force or threat of force, it is known, including to the Minsk Group
co-chairs, that this principle has been violated by the Azerbaijani
party actually since the establishment of ceasefire in the Karabakh
conflict zone. We believe this is indirectly confirmed also by
the OSCE mediators who emphasized in their joint statement on the
results of their recent visit to the region, "Military operations,
in particular, at this moment, can only be considered as an attempt
to derail the peace process". One can reprove the mediators for their
traditional unaddressed and general formulations, but in this case,
important is the very call for restraint in order to understand who
is initiating the military threat. Is the threat of resuming the
war removed to date for talking about the "window of opportunities",
following the example of Mr. Warlick? Definitely not. Therefore, in
this context, I would like to remind him of a very famous quotation
by German Chancellor Otto von Bismarck: "Politics is the art of the
possible". Either with windows or without them.
Leonid MARTIROSSIAN
Editor-in-Chief of Azat Artsakh newspaper
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
http://artsakhtert.com/eng/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1266: window-door-optimism-of-james-warlick&catid=3:all&Itemid=4
Friday, 08 November 2013 14:35
As you know, on 4-5 November, OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairmen Igor Popov
(Russia), Jacques Faure (France), and James Warlick (USA) paid a
visit to the region, in the framework of which they met with the
Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan. This time, the international
mediators limited themselves to the visits to Yerevan and Baku,
which was dictated by the basic goal of the visit - to achieve the
consent of the Presidents of the two countries to a new meeting and
to seat them at the negotiation table after nearly a two-year break.
To the credit of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairmen, they achieved
their goal. In their joint statement on the results of the visit,
the co-chairs noted that "Serzh Sargsyan and Ilham Aliyev reiterated
their readiness to meet in November 2013 to clarify their positions
on the conflict settlement and to discuss the possibilities of moving
forward".
But, this is in regard to the so-called program-minimum. And what about
the program-maximum, i.e. the process of the Azerbaijani-Karabakh
conflict settlement? Can we hope for success here? To be objective,
the current realities in the negotiation process (if we can generally
speak about such in the existing situation) do not inspire any
optimism. But, optimism has been consistently radiated by American
James Warlick since almost the first day of his tenure as the Minsk
Group co-chairman.And this time, both ahead of and during the visit
to the region, the Washington diplomat who, by the way, is much
more talkative than his Russian and French colleagues, distinguished
himself with some optimistic statements. Mr.
Warlick believes that after the presidential elections in Armenia
andAzerbaijan "a window of opportunities for achieving an agreement on
Karabakh was opened". And additionally: "It is important to keep the
doors open, to maintain ties, and to conduct productive negotiations
on moving forward". One has just to guess what these "window-door"
possibilities are, which, according to him, were lacking lately. Did
Ilham Aliyev shared a secret with him during the "positive discussions
with President Ilham Aliyev" (Warlick's characteristic - auth.),
which was not done with the other two co-chairs who do not embark on
conceptual reflections on windows and doors? Frankly speaking, James
Warlick previously expressed, to say the least, contradictory thoughts
about the prospects of the Azerbaijani-Karabakh conflict settlement
as well. He has not either avoided the fragility this time. Surely,
we can graciously attribute it to his little experience as the OSCE
Minsk Group co-chairman.
And yet ... On the one hand, the American diplomat speaks about the
appeared possibilities and on the other hand - about the necessity
of displaying political will by the parties. But, the availability
of political will for the conflict resolution, with the obligatory
consideration of its objective historical, political-legal, and
consequently, for the achievement of comprehensive peace is, as we
believe, one of the major factors creating these opportunities. And
what are the constructive actions of the Azerbaijani authorities,
in which James Warlick discovered the political will of Aliyev whom
the mediators had reportedly to persuade so long for the generous
consent to meet with President Serzh Sargsyan? In this context,
one can rightly state the lack of political will in Azerbaijan. But,
organization of a presidential meeting is just a procedural issue. As
for the deep-seated problems, they are much more complicated. And
there is no doubt that the next meeting of the Presidents of Armenia
and Azerbaijan will not lead to real progress.
In fact, James Warlick realizes this as well, because he acknowledged
that "the negotiations on Nagorno Karabakh are hard, and it is a
difficult choice, which must be made". Noting that the co-chairs'
task is to promote comprehensive negotiations, he informed that they
were working at the basic principles of settlement, reminding the
major three of them - the right of peoples to self-determination,
territorial integrity, and non-use of force or threat of force.
On the basis of the first principle, the people of Artsakh legally
perfectly exercised its right to independent statehood, ultimately
establishing the NagornoKarabakhRepublic. Today, actually all
the sensible people realize that Nagorno Karabakh cannot be part
of Azerbaijan. As for the principle of territorial integrity, to
which Azerbaijan constantly refers, we'd simply limit ourselves to
the statement of former Chairman of the PACE, the late Lord David
Russell-Johnston: "When resolving a conflict, people are definitely
much more important than the factor of territorial integrity of
a country".
As for the last of the aforementioned triad of principles - non-use of
force or threat of force, it is known, including to the Minsk Group
co-chairs, that this principle has been violated by the Azerbaijani
party actually since the establishment of ceasefire in the Karabakh
conflict zone. We believe this is indirectly confirmed also by
the OSCE mediators who emphasized in their joint statement on the
results of their recent visit to the region, "Military operations,
in particular, at this moment, can only be considered as an attempt
to derail the peace process". One can reprove the mediators for their
traditional unaddressed and general formulations, but in this case,
important is the very call for restraint in order to understand who
is initiating the military threat. Is the threat of resuming the
war removed to date for talking about the "window of opportunities",
following the example of Mr. Warlick? Definitely not. Therefore, in
this context, I would like to remind him of a very famous quotation
by German Chancellor Otto von Bismarck: "Politics is the art of the
possible". Either with windows or without them.
Leonid MARTIROSSIAN
Editor-in-Chief of Azat Artsakh newspaper
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress