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HEIKO LANGNER: "THE ARMENIAN-AZERBAIJANI CONFLICT CAN BE SETTLED WITH RUSSIAN MEDIATION"
Vestnik Kavkaza, Russia
Nov 18 2013
18 November 2013 - 1:32pm
Interview by Orkhan Sattarov, the head of the European Bureau of
Vestnik Kavkaza
German political scientist and expert in the post-Soviet area, Heiko
Langner, commented on the situation in Georgia and Azerbaijan following
the elections, the upcoming summit of the Eastern Partnership, and
the prospects of settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict for
Vestnik Kavkaza.
- Mr. Langner, Georgia has recently held the presidential
elections. What do you expect from Georgia in a post-election period?
Will foreign political vectors change?
- Foreign political vectors will unlikely change. We should consider
the objective reality that was established after the Russian-Georgian
war in August 2008. Russia has recognized independence of Abkhazia
and South Ossetia. Actually it means that Georgia has lost these
territories completely. I don't believe that Russia will ever take
its recognition back - the step would destroy trust to the Russian
policy in the region. At the same time, I cannot imagine that any
Georgian government would accept the loss. The factor will influence
Russian-Georgian relations greatly in the future. Thus, we cannot
speak about a pro-Russian turn of the Georgians; but Tbilisi intends
to build pragmatic economic relations with Moscow, which is reasonable,
considering attractiveness of the Russian market for Georgian products.
- Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev was re-elected for the third term
in October. What do you expect from Baku policy in next five years?
- It should be noted that Azerbaijan obtains the highest level of
independence among three states of the South Caucasus. It is explained
by its effective foreign political strategy and economic prosperity,
as Baku has thoughtfully built relations with all regional and
international players. Azerbaijan closely cooperates with Russia and
Europe, the U.S. and Turkey. Baku manages to build neutral relations
with Iran. Azerbaijan will continue implementing this foreign political
strategy and no radical changes are expected.
- The summit of members of the EU program of the Eastern Partnership
will take place in late November. What are advantages of the Eastern
Partnership for its members?
- European economic interests obviously prevail in the program
of the Eastern Partnership. I don't mind an economic exchange and
cross-border trade, but it depends on conditions. The agreement on
free trade will only be beneficial for all sides if the members of
the agreement are equal in economic development. However, this is
not the case. The EU countries are much more developed in the sphere
of economy and technologies than the post-Soviet countries. The
former Soviet republics are in the middle of establishing diversified
economies. Free trade between unequal partners will create unbalanced
economic relations and improve the gap between European and post-Soviet
economies.
Thus, all advantages belong to the EU which is trying to conquer new
outlet markets. It is confirmed by the trade balance of the EU with
the countries of the South Caucasus. Both Georgia and Armenia have
a great trade deficit with the EU. Both countries import much more
products from the EU than export to Europe. The main reason is that
Georgia and Armenia have no products which would be interesting for the
EU. Of course, Georgian wine and Armenian cognac are nice products,
but in general they are niche goods which cannot compensate for the
development of diversified economy.
As for Azerbaijan, it has trade surplus with the EU in recent years,
but it happens only due to oil and gas export to Europe. The trade
balance without the energy segment demonstrates huge deficit of the
Azerbaijani side. However, Azerbaijan has an advantage in comparison
to its neighbors in the region as it can reinvest its oil dollars in
diversification of economy, which happens in reality.
I think that consumers goods, including washing machines and fridges
can be domestically produced; it's not necessary to import them. It
will create new jobs in processing and producing industry which is
necessary for any economy. I believe that effective domestic economy
and specialization in certain export products are not controversial;
together they provide opportunities for economic development of the
country and improvement of living standards.
>From this point of view, Azerbaijan's progress is much better
than Georgia's or Armenia's. Azerbaijan provides 80% of the whole
industrial producing in the whole South Caucasus; an average income
level is much higher here, while the poverty level is much lower than
in the neighboring countries. I understand that not all problems have
been settled, but the main economic development strategy of Azerbaijan
is right. And an equal partnership with the EU can be established in
this context.
- What do you think about Armenia's rejection to sign the association
agreement with the EU at the Vilnius summit?
- Armenia's decision to reject the association agreement with
the EU and to join the Customs Union headed by Russia reflects the
geopolitical balance of forces in the region. Armenia depends seriously
on Russia because of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Armenian foreign
policy is not flexible and depends on Moscow's good will, which of
course doesn't want to reject its interests and will prevent the
EU's improvement in the area of Russian influence from economic and
political point of view. It is reasonable, from the point of view of
Russia and its interests. However, it will lead Armenia to a disaster.
Armenia can continue its policy of illegal occupation of
Azerbaijani territories, however, it pays a lot for this - economic
underdevelopment, massive poverty, poor social conditions for the
population, and massive migration and serious demographic problems.
The international diplomacy should try to take Armenia away from the
isolated position in the region; but it requires that Armenia will
change its current foreign policy and will be ready to move forward in
the process of settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Yerevan
should refuse from maximalist demands to reach a compromise with
Azerbaijan. In this case Azerbaijan and Turkey would stop the economic
isolation, and Armenia would benefit from this.
- What do you think about possible ways out of the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict?
- First of all I would like to note that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
cannot be considered frozen, as many people think. People are being
killed on the frontline and clashes are taking place. It is wrong
to consider this conflict frozen in this context. On the other hand,
I don't see opportunities for settlement of the conflict in the near
future. If we look at the OSCE Minsk Group which is responsible for
talks on the settlement of the conflict, we will see that the only
mediator which has real power in the South Caucasus is Russia. Neither
France nor America can compete with it. And only under mediation of
Russia the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan can be settled. The
key from the Karabakh conflict lies in Moscow. Only cooperation between
Yerevan, Baku, and Moscow can lead to settlement of the situation.
I think a logical way out should be based on territorial integrity of
Azerbaijan, which is damaged today. Two principles of the international
law - of territorial integrity and of self-identity - are not mutually
exclusive. Seven regions around Nagorno-Karabakh were populated by the
Azerbaijani people mainly and they should be returned to Azerbaijan
as soon as possible.
http://vestnikkavkaza.net/interviews/politics/47678.html
Vestnik Kavkaza, Russia
Nov 18 2013
18 November 2013 - 1:32pm
Interview by Orkhan Sattarov, the head of the European Bureau of
Vestnik Kavkaza
German political scientist and expert in the post-Soviet area, Heiko
Langner, commented on the situation in Georgia and Azerbaijan following
the elections, the upcoming summit of the Eastern Partnership, and
the prospects of settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict for
Vestnik Kavkaza.
- Mr. Langner, Georgia has recently held the presidential
elections. What do you expect from Georgia in a post-election period?
Will foreign political vectors change?
- Foreign political vectors will unlikely change. We should consider
the objective reality that was established after the Russian-Georgian
war in August 2008. Russia has recognized independence of Abkhazia
and South Ossetia. Actually it means that Georgia has lost these
territories completely. I don't believe that Russia will ever take
its recognition back - the step would destroy trust to the Russian
policy in the region. At the same time, I cannot imagine that any
Georgian government would accept the loss. The factor will influence
Russian-Georgian relations greatly in the future. Thus, we cannot
speak about a pro-Russian turn of the Georgians; but Tbilisi intends
to build pragmatic economic relations with Moscow, which is reasonable,
considering attractiveness of the Russian market for Georgian products.
- Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev was re-elected for the third term
in October. What do you expect from Baku policy in next five years?
- It should be noted that Azerbaijan obtains the highest level of
independence among three states of the South Caucasus. It is explained
by its effective foreign political strategy and economic prosperity,
as Baku has thoughtfully built relations with all regional and
international players. Azerbaijan closely cooperates with Russia and
Europe, the U.S. and Turkey. Baku manages to build neutral relations
with Iran. Azerbaijan will continue implementing this foreign political
strategy and no radical changes are expected.
- The summit of members of the EU program of the Eastern Partnership
will take place in late November. What are advantages of the Eastern
Partnership for its members?
- European economic interests obviously prevail in the program
of the Eastern Partnership. I don't mind an economic exchange and
cross-border trade, but it depends on conditions. The agreement on
free trade will only be beneficial for all sides if the members of
the agreement are equal in economic development. However, this is
not the case. The EU countries are much more developed in the sphere
of economy and technologies than the post-Soviet countries. The
former Soviet republics are in the middle of establishing diversified
economies. Free trade between unequal partners will create unbalanced
economic relations and improve the gap between European and post-Soviet
economies.
Thus, all advantages belong to the EU which is trying to conquer new
outlet markets. It is confirmed by the trade balance of the EU with
the countries of the South Caucasus. Both Georgia and Armenia have
a great trade deficit with the EU. Both countries import much more
products from the EU than export to Europe. The main reason is that
Georgia and Armenia have no products which would be interesting for the
EU. Of course, Georgian wine and Armenian cognac are nice products,
but in general they are niche goods which cannot compensate for the
development of diversified economy.
As for Azerbaijan, it has trade surplus with the EU in recent years,
but it happens only due to oil and gas export to Europe. The trade
balance without the energy segment demonstrates huge deficit of the
Azerbaijani side. However, Azerbaijan has an advantage in comparison
to its neighbors in the region as it can reinvest its oil dollars in
diversification of economy, which happens in reality.
I think that consumers goods, including washing machines and fridges
can be domestically produced; it's not necessary to import them. It
will create new jobs in processing and producing industry which is
necessary for any economy. I believe that effective domestic economy
and specialization in certain export products are not controversial;
together they provide opportunities for economic development of the
country and improvement of living standards.
>From this point of view, Azerbaijan's progress is much better
than Georgia's or Armenia's. Azerbaijan provides 80% of the whole
industrial producing in the whole South Caucasus; an average income
level is much higher here, while the poverty level is much lower than
in the neighboring countries. I understand that not all problems have
been settled, but the main economic development strategy of Azerbaijan
is right. And an equal partnership with the EU can be established in
this context.
- What do you think about Armenia's rejection to sign the association
agreement with the EU at the Vilnius summit?
- Armenia's decision to reject the association agreement with
the EU and to join the Customs Union headed by Russia reflects the
geopolitical balance of forces in the region. Armenia depends seriously
on Russia because of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Armenian foreign
policy is not flexible and depends on Moscow's good will, which of
course doesn't want to reject its interests and will prevent the
EU's improvement in the area of Russian influence from economic and
political point of view. It is reasonable, from the point of view of
Russia and its interests. However, it will lead Armenia to a disaster.
Armenia can continue its policy of illegal occupation of
Azerbaijani territories, however, it pays a lot for this - economic
underdevelopment, massive poverty, poor social conditions for the
population, and massive migration and serious demographic problems.
The international diplomacy should try to take Armenia away from the
isolated position in the region; but it requires that Armenia will
change its current foreign policy and will be ready to move forward in
the process of settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Yerevan
should refuse from maximalist demands to reach a compromise with
Azerbaijan. In this case Azerbaijan and Turkey would stop the economic
isolation, and Armenia would benefit from this.
- What do you think about possible ways out of the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict?
- First of all I would like to note that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
cannot be considered frozen, as many people think. People are being
killed on the frontline and clashes are taking place. It is wrong
to consider this conflict frozen in this context. On the other hand,
I don't see opportunities for settlement of the conflict in the near
future. If we look at the OSCE Minsk Group which is responsible for
talks on the settlement of the conflict, we will see that the only
mediator which has real power in the South Caucasus is Russia. Neither
France nor America can compete with it. And only under mediation of
Russia the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan can be settled. The
key from the Karabakh conflict lies in Moscow. Only cooperation between
Yerevan, Baku, and Moscow can lead to settlement of the situation.
I think a logical way out should be based on territorial integrity of
Azerbaijan, which is damaged today. Two principles of the international
law - of territorial integrity and of self-identity - are not mutually
exclusive. Seven regions around Nagorno-Karabakh were populated by the
Azerbaijani people mainly and they should be returned to Azerbaijan
as soon as possible.
http://vestnikkavkaza.net/interviews/politics/47678.html