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THE KARABAKH CONFLICT: NOT A STEP FORWARD
Turan Information Agency, Azerbaijan
November 22, 2013 Friday
A dialogue between Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents on Nagorno
Karabakh conflict, after almost a two-year break, will unlikely make
any peace progress in the Madrid Principles:
1. The return of territories around the Nagorno-Karabakh to
Azerbaijan's control.
2. Giving interim status for Nagorno-Karabakh providing guarantees
of security and self control.
3. Providing corridor linking Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh.
4. Defining future final status of Nagorno-Karabakh through a legally
binding expression of will.
5. Return of all internally displaced persons and refugees to their
former homes.
6. International guarantees and peacekeeping operations, which have
not been realized for the past 16 years.
Although the meeting of Presidents Ilham Aliyev and Serzh Sargsyan
on November 19 in Vienna, was anticipated by a soft support on the
part of the Secretary of State, John Kerry, Russian Foreign Minister
Sergey Lavrov, as well as positive afterwards of the High Commissioner
for the Common Foreign and Security Policy, Catherine Ashton, it is
impossible to hope for progress of negotiations on a number of global
and regional causes.
It is known, that in addition to political will and the will of the
parties to the conflict, it is necessary to match the positions on
external global players involved in the settlement process within the
framework of the OSCE Minsk Group, with respect to the foreign policy
of Armenia and Azerbaijan. Recent events around the two conflicting
countries further polarize them, and thereby postpone the time of
possible contact positions.
In anticipation of the Vilnius summit of the Eastern Partnership of
the European Union, Russia practically forced Armenia to abandon plans
for associate membership with the EU in favor of the Customs Union
under the auspices of the Kremlin. Yerevan's decision to join the
Customs Union, the deployment of additional three-thousand Russian
troops in Armenia, the implementation of the plan of acquisition of
the Erebuni airport of Yerevan for the needs of Russian air forces,
significantly reduce the freedom of action of the Armenian diplomacy
in resolving the Karabakh conflict, and Moscow does not show interest
in speeding up the process.
On the other hand, the fact that Aliyev gives preference to the
Eastern Partnership project, though without much zeal, the closure
of the Russian anti-aircraft complex Gabala in Azerbaijan this year,
and ending the transit of Azeri oil through the territory of Russia
next year, demonstrate the growing role of the United States and its
allies in the other flank of the South Caucasus - in Azerbaijan.
Such diametrically contrary development of foreign political
preferences of the conflicting parties, and the opposite promoting
the interests of the North and West towards the South Caucasus will
hardly improve confidence in the negotiators due to mutual accusations
of USA and Russia in making pressure on former Soviet republics in
the issue of cooperation with the European Union.
An important regional player in the South Caucasus, Turkey, on
the eve of the Vienna meeting of the presidents, did not bring a
trustee-promotional impulse in the negotiations. The foreign ministers
of Turkey and the United States, John Kerry, and Ahmet Davutoglu,
in unison said that Ankara will adhere to the previously marked
position in the Karabakh conflict, which provides for the resolution
the problem in the framework of Azerbaijan's territorial integrity.
This approach will definitely turn Armenia from Turkey's mediation
efforts towards Russia. In this sense, neither an invitation to
the Foreign Ministers of Turkey and Azerbaijan to take part in a
meeting of the organization of cooperation in the Black Sea basin,
nor the upcoming meeting of Prime Minister Erdogan and President
Putin in Moscow will affect the change of the agenda of the Karabakh
peace process.
In subsequent periods, prior to the parliamentary elections in
Azerbaijan in 2015, only permanent presidential meetings can be
expected, both with mediation of Washington-Brussels tandem , and
through Russia's mediation initiatives on the presidential level.
These two geopolitically opposing negotiation lines of the settlement
process doom the warring parties to preserve the position of
the diplomatic , informational, and sometimes the local military
confrontation.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
Turan Information Agency, Azerbaijan
November 22, 2013 Friday
A dialogue between Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents on Nagorno
Karabakh conflict, after almost a two-year break, will unlikely make
any peace progress in the Madrid Principles:
1. The return of territories around the Nagorno-Karabakh to
Azerbaijan's control.
2. Giving interim status for Nagorno-Karabakh providing guarantees
of security and self control.
3. Providing corridor linking Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh.
4. Defining future final status of Nagorno-Karabakh through a legally
binding expression of will.
5. Return of all internally displaced persons and refugees to their
former homes.
6. International guarantees and peacekeeping operations, which have
not been realized for the past 16 years.
Although the meeting of Presidents Ilham Aliyev and Serzh Sargsyan
on November 19 in Vienna, was anticipated by a soft support on the
part of the Secretary of State, John Kerry, Russian Foreign Minister
Sergey Lavrov, as well as positive afterwards of the High Commissioner
for the Common Foreign and Security Policy, Catherine Ashton, it is
impossible to hope for progress of negotiations on a number of global
and regional causes.
It is known, that in addition to political will and the will of the
parties to the conflict, it is necessary to match the positions on
external global players involved in the settlement process within the
framework of the OSCE Minsk Group, with respect to the foreign policy
of Armenia and Azerbaijan. Recent events around the two conflicting
countries further polarize them, and thereby postpone the time of
possible contact positions.
In anticipation of the Vilnius summit of the Eastern Partnership of
the European Union, Russia practically forced Armenia to abandon plans
for associate membership with the EU in favor of the Customs Union
under the auspices of the Kremlin. Yerevan's decision to join the
Customs Union, the deployment of additional three-thousand Russian
troops in Armenia, the implementation of the plan of acquisition of
the Erebuni airport of Yerevan for the needs of Russian air forces,
significantly reduce the freedom of action of the Armenian diplomacy
in resolving the Karabakh conflict, and Moscow does not show interest
in speeding up the process.
On the other hand, the fact that Aliyev gives preference to the
Eastern Partnership project, though without much zeal, the closure
of the Russian anti-aircraft complex Gabala in Azerbaijan this year,
and ending the transit of Azeri oil through the territory of Russia
next year, demonstrate the growing role of the United States and its
allies in the other flank of the South Caucasus - in Azerbaijan.
Such diametrically contrary development of foreign political
preferences of the conflicting parties, and the opposite promoting
the interests of the North and West towards the South Caucasus will
hardly improve confidence in the negotiators due to mutual accusations
of USA and Russia in making pressure on former Soviet republics in
the issue of cooperation with the European Union.
An important regional player in the South Caucasus, Turkey, on
the eve of the Vienna meeting of the presidents, did not bring a
trustee-promotional impulse in the negotiations. The foreign ministers
of Turkey and the United States, John Kerry, and Ahmet Davutoglu,
in unison said that Ankara will adhere to the previously marked
position in the Karabakh conflict, which provides for the resolution
the problem in the framework of Azerbaijan's territorial integrity.
This approach will definitely turn Armenia from Turkey's mediation
efforts towards Russia. In this sense, neither an invitation to
the Foreign Ministers of Turkey and Azerbaijan to take part in a
meeting of the organization of cooperation in the Black Sea basin,
nor the upcoming meeting of Prime Minister Erdogan and President
Putin in Moscow will affect the change of the agenda of the Karabakh
peace process.
In subsequent periods, prior to the parliamentary elections in
Azerbaijan in 2015, only permanent presidential meetings can be
expected, both with mediation of Washington-Brussels tandem , and
through Russia's mediation initiatives on the presidential level.
These two geopolitically opposing negotiation lines of the settlement
process doom the warring parties to preserve the position of
the diplomatic , informational, and sometimes the local military
confrontation.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress