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CRISIS GROUP WARNS OF RISING TENSIONS OVER KARABAKH
Transitions Online, Czech Republic
Oct 1 2013
A new International Crisis Group briefing (pdf) warns of the risk of
accidental war between Armenia and Azerbaijan unless the international
community knocks heads together in Baku and Yerevan.
But the briefing "does not predict a second war is either imminent
or more likely than not. It does suggest the near-term threats to
stability are becoming more acute."
Armenia and Azerbaijan went to war in the early 1990s over
Nagorno-Karabakh, an enclave located within Azerbaijan that is
populated largely by ethnic Armenians. Fighting ended in 1994, but each
side reports hundreds of cease-fire violations every month. In the past
year the most serious incidents have been far from Nagorno-Karabakh,
ICG writes.
Armenia and Azerbaijan spend heavily on military equipment, with
Russia a major supplier to both sides.
"Baku has increasingly emphasized a military solution, publicly and
privately. Strategic planners discuss this in much more specific
terms than even a year ago," the think tank writes.
"Armenia has pursued its own military buildup, increasing defense
spending by over 25 percent in 2013. Though in real terms the $450
million total is far less than Azerbaijan's, Moscow gives Yerevan heavy
discounts on its weapons, partially compensating for the imbalance."
The Armenian news agency PanArmenian.net rejects the ICG's findings.
While the report attributes terms such as "Blitzkrieg,'~R "pre-emptive
strike,'~R and '~Qtotal war" to planners on both sides, in truth,
"the Armenian side does not engage in military rhetoric, the latter
being Azerbaijan's 'privilege' with the country's leadership missing no
chance to express their aggressive moods. Armenia's 'strident rhetoric'
is limited to mere expressions of readiness to resist Azeri attacks,"
PanArmenian writes.
Addressing the UN General Assembly last week, Azerbaijani Foreign
Minister Elmar Mammadyarov called for international affirmation
of his country's sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh and declared,
"Armenia's annexationist policy has absolutely no chance of success."
The ICG briefing acknowledges the skepticism on both sides about the
international conflict resolution effort, known as the Minsk Group,
and calls on Russia to take a much more active role as mediator and
to suspend arms sales to both countries.
Ioana Caloianu is a TOL editorial assistant. Ky Krauthamer is a senior
editor at TOL. Alexander Silady is a TOL editorial intern.
http://www.tol.org/client/article/23968-bosnian-census-begins-hungarys-homeless-face-new-legal-hurdles.html
Transitions Online, Czech Republic
Oct 1 2013
A new International Crisis Group briefing (pdf) warns of the risk of
accidental war between Armenia and Azerbaijan unless the international
community knocks heads together in Baku and Yerevan.
But the briefing "does not predict a second war is either imminent
or more likely than not. It does suggest the near-term threats to
stability are becoming more acute."
Armenia and Azerbaijan went to war in the early 1990s over
Nagorno-Karabakh, an enclave located within Azerbaijan that is
populated largely by ethnic Armenians. Fighting ended in 1994, but each
side reports hundreds of cease-fire violations every month. In the past
year the most serious incidents have been far from Nagorno-Karabakh,
ICG writes.
Armenia and Azerbaijan spend heavily on military equipment, with
Russia a major supplier to both sides.
"Baku has increasingly emphasized a military solution, publicly and
privately. Strategic planners discuss this in much more specific
terms than even a year ago," the think tank writes.
"Armenia has pursued its own military buildup, increasing defense
spending by over 25 percent in 2013. Though in real terms the $450
million total is far less than Azerbaijan's, Moscow gives Yerevan heavy
discounts on its weapons, partially compensating for the imbalance."
The Armenian news agency PanArmenian.net rejects the ICG's findings.
While the report attributes terms such as "Blitzkrieg,'~R "pre-emptive
strike,'~R and '~Qtotal war" to planners on both sides, in truth,
"the Armenian side does not engage in military rhetoric, the latter
being Azerbaijan's 'privilege' with the country's leadership missing no
chance to express their aggressive moods. Armenia's 'strident rhetoric'
is limited to mere expressions of readiness to resist Azeri attacks,"
PanArmenian writes.
Addressing the UN General Assembly last week, Azerbaijani Foreign
Minister Elmar Mammadyarov called for international affirmation
of his country's sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh and declared,
"Armenia's annexationist policy has absolutely no chance of success."
The ICG briefing acknowledges the skepticism on both sides about the
international conflict resolution effort, known as the Minsk Group,
and calls on Russia to take a much more active role as mediator and
to suspend arms sales to both countries.
Ioana Caloianu is a TOL editorial assistant. Ky Krauthamer is a senior
editor at TOL. Alexander Silady is a TOL editorial intern.
http://www.tol.org/client/article/23968-bosnian-census-begins-hungarys-homeless-face-new-legal-hurdles.html