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DISQUIET ON THE EASTERN FRONT
European Voice
October 3, 2013
The European Union's plans for closer ties with its eastern neighbours
are coming under strain because of strong-arm tactics by Russia,
writes Andrew Gardner
The European Union is stepping up diplomatic activity in its eastern
neighbourhood in a bid to reassure Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia of
its support in the face of anti-EU pressure from Russia.
This week, member states' ambassadors for security and political
affairs have been in Georgia and Moldova. Karel De Gucht, the European
commissioner for trade, spent yesterday in Ukraine (2 October). Last
week, the members of the Council of Ministers working group for the
Eastern Partnership visited Ukraine.
All three countries hope to initial or sign significant trade and
political agreements with the EU at a summit of the EU's Eastern
Partnership in Vilnius on 28-29 November.
Diplomats and officials say that although the increased diplomatic
activity is partially explained by the need to prepare for the Vilnius
summit, the visits come in response to a request from Catherine
Ashton, the EU's foreign policy chief, for member states and the EU
institutions to increase their visibility in the region. The purpose
is to reassure each of the countries of the EU's support in the face
of pressure from Russia.
Ashton's request follows Russia's success in persuading Armenia to
announce that it would join the Eurasian Customs Union, rather than
complete an already negotiated free-trade agreement with the EU. While
the EU is seeking new ways to revive relations with Armenia, Russia's
diplomatic coup effectively reduced the activity of the EU's Eastern
Partnership programme to just three countries. The EU's relations
with Belarus have barely developed in many years, while relations
with Azerbaijan have languished, aside from trade in energy (see box).
Russia has restricted imports both from Ukraine and Moldova - in
Ukraine's case, explicitly making a link with the country's bid
for a trade deal with the EU. Russia explained its ban on Moldovan
wine exports on alleged impurities, but the European Commission
indicated last week that it believed the move was political. The
Commission suggested that the EU should open its market to Moldovan
wines immediately "to ease some of the difficulties the Republic
of Moldova is experiencing with its wine exports to some of its
traditional markets".
Viorel Ursu of the Open Society European Policy Institute in Brussels
says that "Russian pressure has united theMoldovan political elite
around the European agenda". In Ukraine too, political parties have
shown similar unity to date.
But EU officials are less confident about Georgia, where they perceive
a change of tone by candidates of various stripes in the presidential
election campaign, towards advocacy of closer ties with Russia. There
has not been a corresponding mood shift among the electorate. The
EU's fear is that Russia has been lobbying or pressuring politicians
(see page 11).
An EU official admitted that the EU had not expected Russia to exert
so much pressure ahead of the Vilnius summit. The EU is now preparing
a range of scenarios should Russia squeeze its neighbours again,
but it also intends to reach out to Russia more in the coming weeks.
The main message that officials and national politicians will
be asked to convey is that the EU is not engaged in a geopolitical
battle with Russia. They will argue that the EU's planned trade deals
with Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia would benefit Russian businesses,
by improving the business environment.
Beyond that, the EU is holding out the very long-term prospect of a
free-trade bloc emerging between the EU and Russia. Russia's President
Vladimir Putin has himself in the past proposed the "creation of a
harmonious economic community stretching from Lisbon to Vladivostok".
While disavowing the notion that the EU is engaged in a geopolitical
struggle, EU officials also stress the significance of the Vilnius
summit. One well-placed source told European Voice that "if Vilnius
comes off, history will judge Vilnius as one of the most important
milestones in the history of this continent".
European Voice
October 3, 2013
The European Union's plans for closer ties with its eastern neighbours
are coming under strain because of strong-arm tactics by Russia,
writes Andrew Gardner
The European Union is stepping up diplomatic activity in its eastern
neighbourhood in a bid to reassure Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia of
its support in the face of anti-EU pressure from Russia.
This week, member states' ambassadors for security and political
affairs have been in Georgia and Moldova. Karel De Gucht, the European
commissioner for trade, spent yesterday in Ukraine (2 October). Last
week, the members of the Council of Ministers working group for the
Eastern Partnership visited Ukraine.
All three countries hope to initial or sign significant trade and
political agreements with the EU at a summit of the EU's Eastern
Partnership in Vilnius on 28-29 November.
Diplomats and officials say that although the increased diplomatic
activity is partially explained by the need to prepare for the Vilnius
summit, the visits come in response to a request from Catherine
Ashton, the EU's foreign policy chief, for member states and the EU
institutions to increase their visibility in the region. The purpose
is to reassure each of the countries of the EU's support in the face
of pressure from Russia.
Ashton's request follows Russia's success in persuading Armenia to
announce that it would join the Eurasian Customs Union, rather than
complete an already negotiated free-trade agreement with the EU. While
the EU is seeking new ways to revive relations with Armenia, Russia's
diplomatic coup effectively reduced the activity of the EU's Eastern
Partnership programme to just three countries. The EU's relations
with Belarus have barely developed in many years, while relations
with Azerbaijan have languished, aside from trade in energy (see box).
Russia has restricted imports both from Ukraine and Moldova - in
Ukraine's case, explicitly making a link with the country's bid
for a trade deal with the EU. Russia explained its ban on Moldovan
wine exports on alleged impurities, but the European Commission
indicated last week that it believed the move was political. The
Commission suggested that the EU should open its market to Moldovan
wines immediately "to ease some of the difficulties the Republic
of Moldova is experiencing with its wine exports to some of its
traditional markets".
Viorel Ursu of the Open Society European Policy Institute in Brussels
says that "Russian pressure has united theMoldovan political elite
around the European agenda". In Ukraine too, political parties have
shown similar unity to date.
But EU officials are less confident about Georgia, where they perceive
a change of tone by candidates of various stripes in the presidential
election campaign, towards advocacy of closer ties with Russia. There
has not been a corresponding mood shift among the electorate. The
EU's fear is that Russia has been lobbying or pressuring politicians
(see page 11).
An EU official admitted that the EU had not expected Russia to exert
so much pressure ahead of the Vilnius summit. The EU is now preparing
a range of scenarios should Russia squeeze its neighbours again,
but it also intends to reach out to Russia more in the coming weeks.
The main message that officials and national politicians will
be asked to convey is that the EU is not engaged in a geopolitical
battle with Russia. They will argue that the EU's planned trade deals
with Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia would benefit Russian businesses,
by improving the business environment.
Beyond that, the EU is holding out the very long-term prospect of a
free-trade bloc emerging between the EU and Russia. Russia's President
Vladimir Putin has himself in the past proposed the "creation of a
harmonious economic community stretching from Lisbon to Vladivostok".
While disavowing the notion that the EU is engaged in a geopolitical
struggle, EU officials also stress the significance of the Vilnius
summit. One well-placed source told European Voice that "if Vilnius
comes off, history will judge Vilnius as one of the most important
milestones in the history of this continent".