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Ukraine and the European Union
West or east?
The European Union should sign a deal with Ukraine - but only if Yulia
Tymoshenko is freed
Oct 5th 2013 |From the print edition
ITS very name means `borderland'. Ukraine has long been on the edge
between east and west. Now this country of 46m people is poised to
tilt westward by signing an association agreement with the European
Union next month that also promises freer trade. But Vladimir Putin,
Russia's president, is putting pressure on Ukraine instead to join
Belarus and Kazakhstan in a Eurasian customs union that has become his
pet project.
The Russian sales pitch is simple. Russia remains the single biggest
market for Ukrainian exports. Ukraine would get cheaper gas (Belarus,
which has also sold its gas distributor to Russia's Gazprom, pays less
than half as much). Russia would ease the country's huge debt burden,
much of it owed to Gazprom. Mr Putin was also the main backer of
Ukraine's president, Viktor Yanukovych, in November 2004, when his
rigged election was overturned in the orange revolution. Most alluring
of all, the Russians, unlike the EU, would not make pesky demands for
human rights, the rule of law, an end to corruption and a proper
democracy.
Yet Ukraine would gain far more from going west. Trade is shifting to
what is, in overall terms, a much bigger and richer market than the
Eurasian union could ever be. The EU has a well-tried formula for
helping to reform and liberalise economies from the former Soviet
block. Even Ukrainian oligarchs close to Mr Yanukovych recognise that
more competition from the EU will help them modernise their companies.
In the future, an association agreement could even be a precursor to
eventual EU membership.
But what is pushing the Ukrainians towards the EU now is not all this.
It is Russian bullying. Mr Putin says Ukraine is a sovereign country
able to make its own choice. But it is doubtful that he believes this.
Not only did Russia rule most of Ukraine for two centuries, but Kievan
Rus is seen as the cradle of the modern Russian state. Many Russians
still live in Ukraine: Crimea is 80% Russian. To deter Ukraine from
turning west, the Russians briefly imposed trade restrictions
recently, even banning chocolate imports. A Kremlin adviser has called
the signing of an association agreement `suicide', warned of a
Ukrainian default and even threatened to split apart the country's
Russian- and Ukrainian-speaking halves (see article).
Free Yulia
When Armenia was pushed around by Russia, it caved and decided to join
the Eurasian union. But the response in Georgia and Moldova has been
to move closer to the EU. Similarly, in Ukraine, polls show that
support for the association agreement has risen to over 50%. Mr
Yanukovych has no desire to play second fiddle in a club dominated by
Mr Putin. But Russia's stance has also injected geopolitics into the
debate. Some Europeans argue that, to head off any risk of losing
Ukraine to Mr Putin, the EU should relax its conditions for the
association agreement, especially its demand that Mr Yanukovych's
political opponent, Yulia Tymoshenko, should be released from jail,
where she has languished since her politically motivated trial in June
2011.
That would be a mistake. The EU's pressure has been working. Ukraine
may still be a corrupt oligarchy, but it has been making reforms
demanded by Brussels. It is widely expected that Mrs Tymoshenko will
soon be sent to Germany for medical treatment; she may be released
thereafter. More generally, the value and appeal of an association
agreement lies precisely in the conditions it sets for liberalisation
and reform: to soften these for one special case would weaken them for
all. The EU would keep leverage even after an association agreement is
signed. Brussels hopes to implement its free-trade elements
immediately, but it needs ratification by national parliaments to come
fully into force; that process will probably last until beyond the
next Ukrainian presidential election in early 2015.
If Russia sticks to its threats, Ukraine will also need financial
assistance from the Europeans to see it through the winter. It should
get it. The EU could also ease its visa regime and help more students
go west. To both sides, Ukraine is the most valuable prize left in
eastern Europe. Indeed, this moment could be as critical for the
region as the decision in the 1990s to admit the ex-communist
countries of central Europe to the EU. Fortunately, thanks to Mr
Putin's inept bullying, the prize should now fall into Europe's lap.
>From the print edition: Leaders
http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21587228-european-union-should-sign-deal-ukrainebut-only-if-yulia-tymoshenko-freed-west-or
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
West or east?
The European Union should sign a deal with Ukraine - but only if Yulia
Tymoshenko is freed
Oct 5th 2013 |From the print edition
ITS very name means `borderland'. Ukraine has long been on the edge
between east and west. Now this country of 46m people is poised to
tilt westward by signing an association agreement with the European
Union next month that also promises freer trade. But Vladimir Putin,
Russia's president, is putting pressure on Ukraine instead to join
Belarus and Kazakhstan in a Eurasian customs union that has become his
pet project.
The Russian sales pitch is simple. Russia remains the single biggest
market for Ukrainian exports. Ukraine would get cheaper gas (Belarus,
which has also sold its gas distributor to Russia's Gazprom, pays less
than half as much). Russia would ease the country's huge debt burden,
much of it owed to Gazprom. Mr Putin was also the main backer of
Ukraine's president, Viktor Yanukovych, in November 2004, when his
rigged election was overturned in the orange revolution. Most alluring
of all, the Russians, unlike the EU, would not make pesky demands for
human rights, the rule of law, an end to corruption and a proper
democracy.
Yet Ukraine would gain far more from going west. Trade is shifting to
what is, in overall terms, a much bigger and richer market than the
Eurasian union could ever be. The EU has a well-tried formula for
helping to reform and liberalise economies from the former Soviet
block. Even Ukrainian oligarchs close to Mr Yanukovych recognise that
more competition from the EU will help them modernise their companies.
In the future, an association agreement could even be a precursor to
eventual EU membership.
But what is pushing the Ukrainians towards the EU now is not all this.
It is Russian bullying. Mr Putin says Ukraine is a sovereign country
able to make its own choice. But it is doubtful that he believes this.
Not only did Russia rule most of Ukraine for two centuries, but Kievan
Rus is seen as the cradle of the modern Russian state. Many Russians
still live in Ukraine: Crimea is 80% Russian. To deter Ukraine from
turning west, the Russians briefly imposed trade restrictions
recently, even banning chocolate imports. A Kremlin adviser has called
the signing of an association agreement `suicide', warned of a
Ukrainian default and even threatened to split apart the country's
Russian- and Ukrainian-speaking halves (see article).
Free Yulia
When Armenia was pushed around by Russia, it caved and decided to join
the Eurasian union. But the response in Georgia and Moldova has been
to move closer to the EU. Similarly, in Ukraine, polls show that
support for the association agreement has risen to over 50%. Mr
Yanukovych has no desire to play second fiddle in a club dominated by
Mr Putin. But Russia's stance has also injected geopolitics into the
debate. Some Europeans argue that, to head off any risk of losing
Ukraine to Mr Putin, the EU should relax its conditions for the
association agreement, especially its demand that Mr Yanukovych's
political opponent, Yulia Tymoshenko, should be released from jail,
where she has languished since her politically motivated trial in June
2011.
That would be a mistake. The EU's pressure has been working. Ukraine
may still be a corrupt oligarchy, but it has been making reforms
demanded by Brussels. It is widely expected that Mrs Tymoshenko will
soon be sent to Germany for medical treatment; she may be released
thereafter. More generally, the value and appeal of an association
agreement lies precisely in the conditions it sets for liberalisation
and reform: to soften these for one special case would weaken them for
all. The EU would keep leverage even after an association agreement is
signed. Brussels hopes to implement its free-trade elements
immediately, but it needs ratification by national parliaments to come
fully into force; that process will probably last until beyond the
next Ukrainian presidential election in early 2015.
If Russia sticks to its threats, Ukraine will also need financial
assistance from the Europeans to see it through the winter. It should
get it. The EU could also ease its visa regime and help more students
go west. To both sides, Ukraine is the most valuable prize left in
eastern Europe. Indeed, this moment could be as critical for the
region as the decision in the 1990s to admit the ex-communist
countries of central Europe to the EU. Fortunately, thanks to Mr
Putin's inept bullying, the prize should now fall into Europe's lap.
>From the print edition: Leaders
http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21587228-european-union-should-sign-deal-ukrainebut-only-if-yulia-tymoshenko-freed-west-or
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress