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Richard Giragosian: The EU will shortly offer Armenia a new
cooperation document containing of 7 clauses
Interview of the head of Centre for Regional studies, Richard
Giragosian, with Arminfo news agency
by Marianna Lazarian
http://www.arminfo.am/index.cfm?objectid=0E2F09D0-2DAE-11E3-98590EB7C0D21663
Saturday, October 5, 15:05
Mr Giragosian, what do you think about the two integration unions
which Armenia wants to join? What are their positive and negative
sides? What will Armenia loserefusing the Association Agreement?
As for the Customs Union, I can say that the positive element of
Armenia's joining the Customs Union is that it will enhance the
Armenian-Russian partnership, prove once again Russia's trust in
Armenia and will strengthen Armenia's positions within the frames of
the CIS. At the same time, it enhances relations with Kazakhstan and
Belarus. However, despite Armenia's hopes linked with the Customs
Union, all the positive sides of this integration process are not
clear yet. If we touch on the economic sector, Armenia will have
losses chiefly regarding the trade tariffs and prices in general.
Armenia could have an opportunity of interfering the bigger market.
Moreover, for the last two years export of the Armenian production to
the European market exceeded twofold its export to the countries of
the Customs Union. And finally, the Customs Union offer Armenia
nothing new, that is to say, old rules which protect interests of
Armenian oligarchs and weaken economic reforms, will go on
functioning. Moreover, thanks to such actions, no big European
investments will be made in Armenia any more. This just an economic
side of the situation. The way how Armenia adopted a decision to join
the Customs Union also weakens the country, as from now, the EU takes
Armenia as an unreliable partner for the European countries.
Can we suppose that the EU will reduce the number of programmes being
fulfilled in Armenia?
Since Armenia's decision to join the Customs Union, the European Union
has already adopted a decision to reduce some programmes. All the
funds that had to be directed to the Armenian government for
fulfillment of the DCFRA agreement, were stopped. I mean several
million EUR. This is a great financial loss for our government. And if
in future the EU decides to deliver funds to Armenia, they will be
delivered not to the government but civil society.
The ruling party of Armenia says that the decision to join the Customs
Union is stemming from the national security of the country. How much
is such a statement grounded, especially if we take into account the
fact that Russia sells weapon to Azerbaijan, and one of the members of
the Customs Union, Kazakhstan, demands to immediately close the border
to Nagornyy Karabakh?
I do not agree to the viewpoint that Armenia is joining the Customs
Union stemming from the national security problems. First of all,
DCFTA agreement as well as the Association Agreement have never
contained the points linked with security. Moreover, these agreements
have never been presented as a challenge or threat to the
Armenian-Russian relations.
Armenia's joining the Customs Union against the background of the fact
that Russia is Azerbaijan's number one partner on weapon delivery, and
Kazakhstan protects territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, is evidence
of weakness of Yerevan's positions. The given steps are evidence of
availability of deeper problems, and demonstrate absence of equality
in the relations between Armenia and Russia, that is to say, Moscow
shows no respect to Yerevan. Armenia's decision to join the Customs
Union is directed against Ukraine. In this case, Armenia is just a
victim. Actually, these steps were directed against Ukraine but not
Armenia. The key purpose of the given decision was to force Armenia
say "no" to the EU , but not "yes" to the Customs Union".
Many experts say about a dramatic changing of the political course of
Armenia. However, this sudden changing took place in Moscow, first of
all, and then in Yerevan, that is to say, the Russian policy changed
first, the expert said.
This was the reason, why Russia was not against Armenia's negotiations
with the EU for 3,5 years, and official Moscow has drawn a line just
recently.
What can we expect from the Vilnius `Eastern partnership' summit? Will
the door of Europe be finally closed for Armenia, or new cooperation
conception will be drawn out?
I predict only one thing for Armenia at the Vilnius Summit -
disgrace: it was really disgraceful on Armenia's part to surrender to
Russia so easily. It was a strategic mistake and a lost opportunity.
However, at present we are going to prepare new legal aspects for
cooperation with the EU. Just for this reason, despite disappointment,
the EU said about its readiness to continue cooperation. Armenia and
the European Union will create a new legal aspect for partnership. The
new document will consist of 6 or 7 clauses, with priority to be given
to mobility or simplicity of visa regime, education and
sector-specific cooperation - that is, the financing will be continued
but will be directed to specific sectors. The other points will
concern the efforts to fight corruption, to ensure the rule of law and
to protect human rights. But I still doubt that the document will be
ready by the EaP Summit in Vilnius. Unfortunately, the Armenian
authorities do not realize that the context of their partnership with
the EU has been seriously changed and that the new format will focus
on the weakest aspects of the Association Agreement - corruption, rule
of law and human rights. For this reason, the Armenian authorities
will face new higher requirements and closer control. Now that the
ruling regime has betrayed the EU, it will turn its eyes towards the
opposition.
The Armenian-Turkish Protocols are still on the agenda of the
parliaments of Armenia and Turkey. Can we say about staring of a new
process between these two countries?
At present, the given issue is regarding Turkey but not Armenia
which did everything possible depending on it for normalization of the
Armenian-Turkish relations. Now everybody are waiting for the actions
from Turkey, Turkey is responsible for that. Incidentally,
Washington's, Brussels's and Moscow's viewpoint on the issue
coincides. They agree that Turkey left the process and it itself can
decide when to return to it. However, I think that that the
Armenian-Turkish Protocols are already dead and will never come back.
But, at present we have another process, when they are trying to
attract the points which were involved in the Protocols without the
protocol format. And this new strategy is about opening of the border
and establishment of diplomatic relations. This is one of the issues,
where I protect the position of the authorities of Armenia by 100%.
Just thanks to this issue Armenia has managed to enhance its strategic
significance and deepen diplomatic relations.
Can we suppose that by 2015, the 100th anniversary of the Armenian
genocide, Turkey will again return to the Protocols for creation of
illusion of improvement of relations?
Turkey will come back to normalizing of relations with Armenia till
2015. The genocide issue is a bigger problem for Turkey than for
Armenia. It is linked with the moral pressure imposed upon the
official Ankara. We should expect that Turkey will come back to
normalizing of relations with Armenia over the coming years.
Azerbaijan has become the biggest victim of normalization of the
Armenian-Turkish relations, as its relations with official Ankara were
damaged. "Turkey is disappointed by the fact that Azerbaijan puts veto
upon all the initiatives in its regional policy. Turkey was wrong as
it underrated the role of Azerbaijan. Moreover, Russia made use of
the temporary worsening of the Azerbaijani-Turkish relations and
improved its relations with Baku. We see that Turkey is not the
biggest military partner of Azerbaijan any more, as Russia has
occupied this position. Armenia should not like the look of it.
What do you think about an intention to make Constitutional reforms?
What is the truepurpose of their making? Is not it Serzh Sargsyan's
attempt to secure his power?
It is still early to speak about it as then reforms have not been
offered yet. However, I think that they are not an attempt to prolong
Sargsyan's power. I think it will not work because of the two reasons.
First, it is for the first time over the entire history of Armenia
that the fight started within the ruling party. Secondly, Sargsyan is
the last representative of the Karabakh elite in the power. At
present, we are ay the transition stage and the next head of state
will be younger and will have absolutely different political views. I
don't think that in the created situation the current system will
function in future as well.
What will civil displeasure in the republic result in against the
background of overall price hike? Can we expect social revolt in the
republic?
Civil activism and interest in political processes are growing in
Armenia. One of the key reasons of it is the situation when almost 1/3
of the population are below the poverty line, while the oligarchs are
getting richer and richer, with no echanism available to control their
insatiable appetites. As a result, the people regard them as traitors
and the biggest threat for the country.
Thank you, for an interesting interview.
From: A. Papazian
cooperation document containing of 7 clauses
Interview of the head of Centre for Regional studies, Richard
Giragosian, with Arminfo news agency
by Marianna Lazarian
http://www.arminfo.am/index.cfm?objectid=0E2F09D0-2DAE-11E3-98590EB7C0D21663
Saturday, October 5, 15:05
Mr Giragosian, what do you think about the two integration unions
which Armenia wants to join? What are their positive and negative
sides? What will Armenia loserefusing the Association Agreement?
As for the Customs Union, I can say that the positive element of
Armenia's joining the Customs Union is that it will enhance the
Armenian-Russian partnership, prove once again Russia's trust in
Armenia and will strengthen Armenia's positions within the frames of
the CIS. At the same time, it enhances relations with Kazakhstan and
Belarus. However, despite Armenia's hopes linked with the Customs
Union, all the positive sides of this integration process are not
clear yet. If we touch on the economic sector, Armenia will have
losses chiefly regarding the trade tariffs and prices in general.
Armenia could have an opportunity of interfering the bigger market.
Moreover, for the last two years export of the Armenian production to
the European market exceeded twofold its export to the countries of
the Customs Union. And finally, the Customs Union offer Armenia
nothing new, that is to say, old rules which protect interests of
Armenian oligarchs and weaken economic reforms, will go on
functioning. Moreover, thanks to such actions, no big European
investments will be made in Armenia any more. This just an economic
side of the situation. The way how Armenia adopted a decision to join
the Customs Union also weakens the country, as from now, the EU takes
Armenia as an unreliable partner for the European countries.
Can we suppose that the EU will reduce the number of programmes being
fulfilled in Armenia?
Since Armenia's decision to join the Customs Union, the European Union
has already adopted a decision to reduce some programmes. All the
funds that had to be directed to the Armenian government for
fulfillment of the DCFRA agreement, were stopped. I mean several
million EUR. This is a great financial loss for our government. And if
in future the EU decides to deliver funds to Armenia, they will be
delivered not to the government but civil society.
The ruling party of Armenia says that the decision to join the Customs
Union is stemming from the national security of the country. How much
is such a statement grounded, especially if we take into account the
fact that Russia sells weapon to Azerbaijan, and one of the members of
the Customs Union, Kazakhstan, demands to immediately close the border
to Nagornyy Karabakh?
I do not agree to the viewpoint that Armenia is joining the Customs
Union stemming from the national security problems. First of all,
DCFTA agreement as well as the Association Agreement have never
contained the points linked with security. Moreover, these agreements
have never been presented as a challenge or threat to the
Armenian-Russian relations.
Armenia's joining the Customs Union against the background of the fact
that Russia is Azerbaijan's number one partner on weapon delivery, and
Kazakhstan protects territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, is evidence
of weakness of Yerevan's positions. The given steps are evidence of
availability of deeper problems, and demonstrate absence of equality
in the relations between Armenia and Russia, that is to say, Moscow
shows no respect to Yerevan. Armenia's decision to join the Customs
Union is directed against Ukraine. In this case, Armenia is just a
victim. Actually, these steps were directed against Ukraine but not
Armenia. The key purpose of the given decision was to force Armenia
say "no" to the EU , but not "yes" to the Customs Union".
Many experts say about a dramatic changing of the political course of
Armenia. However, this sudden changing took place in Moscow, first of
all, and then in Yerevan, that is to say, the Russian policy changed
first, the expert said.
This was the reason, why Russia was not against Armenia's negotiations
with the EU for 3,5 years, and official Moscow has drawn a line just
recently.
What can we expect from the Vilnius `Eastern partnership' summit? Will
the door of Europe be finally closed for Armenia, or new cooperation
conception will be drawn out?
I predict only one thing for Armenia at the Vilnius Summit -
disgrace: it was really disgraceful on Armenia's part to surrender to
Russia so easily. It was a strategic mistake and a lost opportunity.
However, at present we are going to prepare new legal aspects for
cooperation with the EU. Just for this reason, despite disappointment,
the EU said about its readiness to continue cooperation. Armenia and
the European Union will create a new legal aspect for partnership. The
new document will consist of 6 or 7 clauses, with priority to be given
to mobility or simplicity of visa regime, education and
sector-specific cooperation - that is, the financing will be continued
but will be directed to specific sectors. The other points will
concern the efforts to fight corruption, to ensure the rule of law and
to protect human rights. But I still doubt that the document will be
ready by the EaP Summit in Vilnius. Unfortunately, the Armenian
authorities do not realize that the context of their partnership with
the EU has been seriously changed and that the new format will focus
on the weakest aspects of the Association Agreement - corruption, rule
of law and human rights. For this reason, the Armenian authorities
will face new higher requirements and closer control. Now that the
ruling regime has betrayed the EU, it will turn its eyes towards the
opposition.
The Armenian-Turkish Protocols are still on the agenda of the
parliaments of Armenia and Turkey. Can we say about staring of a new
process between these two countries?
At present, the given issue is regarding Turkey but not Armenia
which did everything possible depending on it for normalization of the
Armenian-Turkish relations. Now everybody are waiting for the actions
from Turkey, Turkey is responsible for that. Incidentally,
Washington's, Brussels's and Moscow's viewpoint on the issue
coincides. They agree that Turkey left the process and it itself can
decide when to return to it. However, I think that that the
Armenian-Turkish Protocols are already dead and will never come back.
But, at present we have another process, when they are trying to
attract the points which were involved in the Protocols without the
protocol format. And this new strategy is about opening of the border
and establishment of diplomatic relations. This is one of the issues,
where I protect the position of the authorities of Armenia by 100%.
Just thanks to this issue Armenia has managed to enhance its strategic
significance and deepen diplomatic relations.
Can we suppose that by 2015, the 100th anniversary of the Armenian
genocide, Turkey will again return to the Protocols for creation of
illusion of improvement of relations?
Turkey will come back to normalizing of relations with Armenia till
2015. The genocide issue is a bigger problem for Turkey than for
Armenia. It is linked with the moral pressure imposed upon the
official Ankara. We should expect that Turkey will come back to
normalizing of relations with Armenia over the coming years.
Azerbaijan has become the biggest victim of normalization of the
Armenian-Turkish relations, as its relations with official Ankara were
damaged. "Turkey is disappointed by the fact that Azerbaijan puts veto
upon all the initiatives in its regional policy. Turkey was wrong as
it underrated the role of Azerbaijan. Moreover, Russia made use of
the temporary worsening of the Azerbaijani-Turkish relations and
improved its relations with Baku. We see that Turkey is not the
biggest military partner of Azerbaijan any more, as Russia has
occupied this position. Armenia should not like the look of it.
What do you think about an intention to make Constitutional reforms?
What is the truepurpose of their making? Is not it Serzh Sargsyan's
attempt to secure his power?
It is still early to speak about it as then reforms have not been
offered yet. However, I think that they are not an attempt to prolong
Sargsyan's power. I think it will not work because of the two reasons.
First, it is for the first time over the entire history of Armenia
that the fight started within the ruling party. Secondly, Sargsyan is
the last representative of the Karabakh elite in the power. At
present, we are ay the transition stage and the next head of state
will be younger and will have absolutely different political views. I
don't think that in the created situation the current system will
function in future as well.
What will civil displeasure in the republic result in against the
background of overall price hike? Can we expect social revolt in the
republic?
Civil activism and interest in political processes are growing in
Armenia. One of the key reasons of it is the situation when almost 1/3
of the population are below the poverty line, while the oligarchs are
getting richer and richer, with no echanism available to control their
insatiable appetites. As a result, the people regard them as traitors
and the biggest threat for the country.
Thank you, for an interesting interview.
From: A. Papazian