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OSCE MINSK GROUP MAY BREAK TACIT AGREEMENT ON STATUS QUO AFTER ILHAM ALIYEV'S RE-ELECTION AS AZERBAIJAN'S PRESIDENT
13:07 ~U 10.10.13
After Ilham Aliyev has been re-elected for a third presidential term,
the processes related to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict will show upward
tendencies, and the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs' may break their tacit
agreement that the status quo is the lesser evil than a war.
It its turn, it will cause a revision of the "realpolitik," Chairman
of the Political Scientists' Union of Armenia Hmayak Hovhannisyan
told Tert.am.
"France and the United States have much more serious reasons than
Ilham Aliyev's re-election, namely, speeding up the process, as at
the most significant periods of Serzh Sargsyan's presidency, when
the West-highlighted problems were being dealt with, the unsettled
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict proved a serious obstacle to the West.
Specifically, with respect to the establishment of Armenian-Turkish
diplomatic relations and re-opening of the Armenian-Turkish border,
Azerbaijan, pleading the unsettled Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, was
able to persuade Turkey into suspending the ratification of the
Armenian-Turkish protocols and removing it from the Parliament agenda.
Hovhannisyan noted that the West's second "encounter" with the
unsettled Nagorno-Karabakh problem was after the initialing of an
Armenia-EU Association Agreement failed, whereas the Agreement was
of paramount importance for the West.
Miscalculations by Armenian political scientists may be the cause of
the failed consensus.
In the second case, Hovhannisyan accounts for the failed consensus
by Armenian political scientists' miscalculations.
Moreover, they do not hide the fact that it is aimed at them. "On the
one hand, the West has for the second time made sure that its programs
related to Armenia fail because of the unsettled Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict. On the other hand, Armenia keeps on making statements on
Nagorno-Karabakh's security. So they have laid more emphasis on the
fact that the unsettled Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is an impediment
to Armenia's integration into Europe.
According to Hovhannisyan, it was not a trilateral consensus -
between the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairing nations, France, Russia and
the United States. Rather, it was a consensus between five nations,
including Turkey and Azerbaijan. Some Russian political scientists
pointed out that fact.
Nagorno-Karabakh officials warned against Nagorno-Karabakh's
involvement
In this context, Hovhannisyan does not consider the statements
a coincidence.
"They said 'do not write that Nursultan Nazarbayev stated
Nagorno-Karabakh was not to be admitted to the Customs Union',"
he said. Those were the Armenian side's ideological blunders.
US President Barack Obama is the "first swallow" of the failed
"realpolitik."
Hovhannisyan does not regard as a coincidence the fact that it was
immediately after Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan's statement on
Armenia's accession to the Customs Union on September 3 that the US
president stated his readiness to spare no efforts for the stalemated
negotiation process to be resumed, speeded up and produce results.
It should be remembered that an Armenian-Azerbaijani presidential
meeting is to take place before the end of this year.
Manvel Sargsyan: What can be preserved without any solution?
Manvel Sargsyan, Director of Research Armenian Center for National
and International Studies, told Tert.am that he shares the opinion
on tendencies to more active negotiations. The first factor is the
agreement on an Armenian-Azerbaijani presidential meeting late this
year. Maintaining the status quo as an end in itself is to the benefit
of both Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh.
"Why should we think of preserving what we have now if there are no
solutions? Do the people want to find solutions? The question arouses
serious doubts."
The Armenian side is unwilling to deal with the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict. "We can have more than a status quo. This problem must
be resolved. The people have been living in danger for 20 years,"
Manvel Sargsyan said.
http://www.tert.am/en/news/2013/10/10/Hmayak-Hovhannisyan/
13:07 ~U 10.10.13
After Ilham Aliyev has been re-elected for a third presidential term,
the processes related to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict will show upward
tendencies, and the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs' may break their tacit
agreement that the status quo is the lesser evil than a war.
It its turn, it will cause a revision of the "realpolitik," Chairman
of the Political Scientists' Union of Armenia Hmayak Hovhannisyan
told Tert.am.
"France and the United States have much more serious reasons than
Ilham Aliyev's re-election, namely, speeding up the process, as at
the most significant periods of Serzh Sargsyan's presidency, when
the West-highlighted problems were being dealt with, the unsettled
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict proved a serious obstacle to the West.
Specifically, with respect to the establishment of Armenian-Turkish
diplomatic relations and re-opening of the Armenian-Turkish border,
Azerbaijan, pleading the unsettled Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, was
able to persuade Turkey into suspending the ratification of the
Armenian-Turkish protocols and removing it from the Parliament agenda.
Hovhannisyan noted that the West's second "encounter" with the
unsettled Nagorno-Karabakh problem was after the initialing of an
Armenia-EU Association Agreement failed, whereas the Agreement was
of paramount importance for the West.
Miscalculations by Armenian political scientists may be the cause of
the failed consensus.
In the second case, Hovhannisyan accounts for the failed consensus
by Armenian political scientists' miscalculations.
Moreover, they do not hide the fact that it is aimed at them. "On the
one hand, the West has for the second time made sure that its programs
related to Armenia fail because of the unsettled Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict. On the other hand, Armenia keeps on making statements on
Nagorno-Karabakh's security. So they have laid more emphasis on the
fact that the unsettled Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is an impediment
to Armenia's integration into Europe.
According to Hovhannisyan, it was not a trilateral consensus -
between the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairing nations, France, Russia and
the United States. Rather, it was a consensus between five nations,
including Turkey and Azerbaijan. Some Russian political scientists
pointed out that fact.
Nagorno-Karabakh officials warned against Nagorno-Karabakh's
involvement
In this context, Hovhannisyan does not consider the statements
a coincidence.
"They said 'do not write that Nursultan Nazarbayev stated
Nagorno-Karabakh was not to be admitted to the Customs Union',"
he said. Those were the Armenian side's ideological blunders.
US President Barack Obama is the "first swallow" of the failed
"realpolitik."
Hovhannisyan does not regard as a coincidence the fact that it was
immediately after Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan's statement on
Armenia's accession to the Customs Union on September 3 that the US
president stated his readiness to spare no efforts for the stalemated
negotiation process to be resumed, speeded up and produce results.
It should be remembered that an Armenian-Azerbaijani presidential
meeting is to take place before the end of this year.
Manvel Sargsyan: What can be preserved without any solution?
Manvel Sargsyan, Director of Research Armenian Center for National
and International Studies, told Tert.am that he shares the opinion
on tendencies to more active negotiations. The first factor is the
agreement on an Armenian-Azerbaijani presidential meeting late this
year. Maintaining the status quo as an end in itself is to the benefit
of both Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh.
"Why should we think of preserving what we have now if there are no
solutions? Do the people want to find solutions? The question arouses
serious doubts."
The Armenian side is unwilling to deal with the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict. "We can have more than a status quo. This problem must
be resolved. The people have been living in danger for 20 years,"
Manvel Sargsyan said.
http://www.tert.am/en/news/2013/10/10/Hmayak-Hovhannisyan/