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ACNIS DIRECTOR: CHANGE IN STATUS QUO OVER KARABAKH MAYBE CAUSED EXCLUSIVELY BY FOREIGN POLICY UPHEAVALS
by David Stepanyan
ARMINFO
Wednesday, October 9, 12:46
A change in the status quo over Nagorno Karabakh maybe caused
exclusively by foreign upheavals and not domestic impulses, says
Manvel Sargsyan, Director of the Armenian Center for National and
International Studies (ACNIS), in an interview with ArmInfo.
"In this light, neither the ongoing presidential election in Azerbaijan
nor another 'victory' of Ilham Aliyev will bring any tangible changes
in the Karabakh process. The domestic political processes in Armenia
will not change anything either. The status quo of 1994 maybe changed
only in the wake of foreign policy upheavals involving super powers
and big players in the region, for instance, Iran," he says.
In late September the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs said they plan to
visit the region in November to meet the Armenian and Azerbaijani
presidents to discuss their meeting scheduled for the end of the year.
Presidential election has kicked off in Azerbaijan today, on 9
October. The incumbent president Ilham Aliyev is more than 100%
likely to retain his position.
Manvel Sargsyan is sure that the unprecedented growth of arms supply
to Azerbaijan by Russia may have a new, special role in the Karabakh
peace process. It is the first factor. The second factor is Russia's
new role in the relations with the post-Soviet countries and Moscow's
efforts to reunite these countries under the flag of the Customs Union
and future Eurasian Union. The analyst believes that new relations
of Armenia and Azerbaijan with Russia may determine the quality and
essence of changes around the Karabakh peace process.
"The third factor is the Moscow-Washington-Brussels relations and
their stances on the Iranian nuclear problem," he said. All this
is happening near the borders of Armenia, Azerbaijan and NKR and
touches our countries and the Karabakh peace process. These factors
may sharply change the status quo over Karabakh and result in either
its recognition or in a new aggression by Azerbaijan, he said.
by David Stepanyan
ARMINFO
Wednesday, October 9, 12:46
A change in the status quo over Nagorno Karabakh maybe caused
exclusively by foreign upheavals and not domestic impulses, says
Manvel Sargsyan, Director of the Armenian Center for National and
International Studies (ACNIS), in an interview with ArmInfo.
"In this light, neither the ongoing presidential election in Azerbaijan
nor another 'victory' of Ilham Aliyev will bring any tangible changes
in the Karabakh process. The domestic political processes in Armenia
will not change anything either. The status quo of 1994 maybe changed
only in the wake of foreign policy upheavals involving super powers
and big players in the region, for instance, Iran," he says.
In late September the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs said they plan to
visit the region in November to meet the Armenian and Azerbaijani
presidents to discuss their meeting scheduled for the end of the year.
Presidential election has kicked off in Azerbaijan today, on 9
October. The incumbent president Ilham Aliyev is more than 100%
likely to retain his position.
Manvel Sargsyan is sure that the unprecedented growth of arms supply
to Azerbaijan by Russia may have a new, special role in the Karabakh
peace process. It is the first factor. The second factor is Russia's
new role in the relations with the post-Soviet countries and Moscow's
efforts to reunite these countries under the flag of the Customs Union
and future Eurasian Union. The analyst believes that new relations
of Armenia and Azerbaijan with Russia may determine the quality and
essence of changes around the Karabakh peace process.
"The third factor is the Moscow-Washington-Brussels relations and
their stances on the Iranian nuclear problem," he said. All this
is happening near the borders of Armenia, Azerbaijan and NKR and
touches our countries and the Karabakh peace process. These factors
may sharply change the status quo over Karabakh and result in either
its recognition or in a new aggression by Azerbaijan, he said.