Tweet
BAKU CONFESSED THE NUMBER OF REFUGEES WAS FIVE TIMES EXAGGERATED
15:35 10/10/2013 " ANALYSIS
By Armen Minasyan
Discussing the presidential elections held in Azerbaijan on October
9 from the standpoint of their legality, as well as legitimacy, is
at least naïve. To understand this, one only has to follow online the
voting process in separate precincts at the Central Electoral Committee
of the country. Thus, the video footage aired online made it visible
that in certain precincts only eight people voted within three hours
(12:00-15:00), while the indicators at the precinct, according to
the same online statistics, were increasing with an incredible speed.
We have already reported how the Azerbaijanis ensured voter
participation with the help of Microsoft Excel software: for instance,
in all the precincts of No 1 polling station in Nakhichevan the voter
participation by 10.00am was 23%, by 12.00am - 37%, by 15:00pm - 57%,
by 17:00pm - 72% and by 19:00pm - 83%. In other polling stations
the numbers are slightly different, but the logic is the same. The
differences in numbers between certain polling stations were so
minuscule and the distribution was so perfect that those who love the
"last digit test" could be amazed by the scene. Thus, I suggest instead
of discussing the legality of the elections or the technologies applied
(as no technology has apparently been used except for the computer
and bludgeons) to observe a number of interesting facts.
In order to point out a number of amazing cases we suggest paying
attention to the election results in Nakhichevan. For each precinct
these are published on the Azerbaijani CEC website. It turns out that
out of seven polling stations in Nakhichevan in all the 316 precincts
the average participation index was 82.26%. At the same time in three
precincts (7/50, 7/51, 7/52) 100% participation was registered. In
other 286 precincts (which is 90% of all the precincts) more than 80%
voter participation was registered.
As for the distribution of votes, in Nakhichevan all the seven
precincts taken together registered 90.29% of the total votes in favor
of Ilham Aliyev. In four precincts (7/49, 7/50, 7/51, 7/52) Aliyev
junior received 100% of the votes. Here is another remarkable fact -
in 238 precincts (which is 75% of all the precincts) the votes Aliyev
received range from 90% to 91% - in this case the computer apparently
helped as well. In the whole Nakhichevan it was only in one of the
precinct (4/11) where Ilham Aliyev received less than 80% of the votes.
The number of people with suffrage in Azerbaijan is a separate topic
of discussion. As it is known, Azerbaijan has announced that as of
13 July 2013 the number of residents in Azerbaijan was 9 590 159.
According to the official statistics, 2 170 672 (22.6%) out of this
are less than 14 years old, 1 754 919 (18.3%) are from 15 to 24 years
old, 4 302 568 (44.9%) are from 25 to 54 years old and 601 167 (6.3%)
are over 65.
According to the official data only the number of those over 25 in
the country is 5 664 568. Compared to this, the number of people from
18 to 24 years old, according to official statistics, will be about
1.2 million. This means that the number of people who have suffrage
and who reside in Azerbaijan is officially 6.9 million, while in
the voting lists 5.1 million people were registered. This means that
either 1.8 million people are missing from the voting lists or the
number of the population in that country is extremely exaggerated
(the latter is more likely).
Some additional precincts were also established for the people who
had left Arstakh. It is hard to say what is actually happening in
those polling stations. Suffice it to observe that the results from
some twenty precincts from Lachin polling station are up to now not
published in the CECwebsite. It must be noted that in these precincts
more than 95% participation was registered. In all the other cases,
according to the official information, in the polling stations from
120 to 125, 74.04% participation was registered, while the number of
votes Aliyev received amount to 85.67% of all the votes.
Yet the most crucial in this whole story are the voter lists.
Obviously, these precincts are established in order to register and
keep mobilized those people who have left Nagorno Karabakh Republic as
a result of the conflict, and also to use them or their descendants
against Artsakh in the future. To put it another way, we must be
certain that in this particular statistics neither Ilham nor his
propagandists would "concede", not to say they actually exaggerate
it far beyond realities on the ground. And what do we have at the end
of the day? In all the above mentioned precincts, taken together (i.e.
all electoral precincts projected in the territory of present-day
Nagorno Karabakh Republic), according to official voter lists, there
are 233 062 people all in all. As we stand in the year of 2013,
those born in or before 1994 (the year when the ceasefire agreement
was signed among Azerbaijan, Armenia and Nagorno Karabakh, and no
refugee could appear afterwards) have now long passed their 18th
anniversaries and successfully received suffrage. This brings us to a
final argument, that the number of all the people who have ever lived
in the present-day Nagorno Karabakh Republic, is exactly 233 062,
all of whom now appear in the voter lists. Obviously, this number has
a tendency of decline due to natural reasons, and it remains to rest
astonished, why in Baku the official propaganda still speaks of the
"one million refugees" while according to their own official data
the numbers are at least five times less.
http://www.panorama.am/en/politics/2013/10/10/a-minasyan/
15:35 10/10/2013 " ANALYSIS
By Armen Minasyan
Discussing the presidential elections held in Azerbaijan on October
9 from the standpoint of their legality, as well as legitimacy, is
at least naïve. To understand this, one only has to follow online the
voting process in separate precincts at the Central Electoral Committee
of the country. Thus, the video footage aired online made it visible
that in certain precincts only eight people voted within three hours
(12:00-15:00), while the indicators at the precinct, according to
the same online statistics, were increasing with an incredible speed.
We have already reported how the Azerbaijanis ensured voter
participation with the help of Microsoft Excel software: for instance,
in all the precincts of No 1 polling station in Nakhichevan the voter
participation by 10.00am was 23%, by 12.00am - 37%, by 15:00pm - 57%,
by 17:00pm - 72% and by 19:00pm - 83%. In other polling stations
the numbers are slightly different, but the logic is the same. The
differences in numbers between certain polling stations were so
minuscule and the distribution was so perfect that those who love the
"last digit test" could be amazed by the scene. Thus, I suggest instead
of discussing the legality of the elections or the technologies applied
(as no technology has apparently been used except for the computer
and bludgeons) to observe a number of interesting facts.
In order to point out a number of amazing cases we suggest paying
attention to the election results in Nakhichevan. For each precinct
these are published on the Azerbaijani CEC website. It turns out that
out of seven polling stations in Nakhichevan in all the 316 precincts
the average participation index was 82.26%. At the same time in three
precincts (7/50, 7/51, 7/52) 100% participation was registered. In
other 286 precincts (which is 90% of all the precincts) more than 80%
voter participation was registered.
As for the distribution of votes, in Nakhichevan all the seven
precincts taken together registered 90.29% of the total votes in favor
of Ilham Aliyev. In four precincts (7/49, 7/50, 7/51, 7/52) Aliyev
junior received 100% of the votes. Here is another remarkable fact -
in 238 precincts (which is 75% of all the precincts) the votes Aliyev
received range from 90% to 91% - in this case the computer apparently
helped as well. In the whole Nakhichevan it was only in one of the
precinct (4/11) where Ilham Aliyev received less than 80% of the votes.
The number of people with suffrage in Azerbaijan is a separate topic
of discussion. As it is known, Azerbaijan has announced that as of
13 July 2013 the number of residents in Azerbaijan was 9 590 159.
According to the official statistics, 2 170 672 (22.6%) out of this
are less than 14 years old, 1 754 919 (18.3%) are from 15 to 24 years
old, 4 302 568 (44.9%) are from 25 to 54 years old and 601 167 (6.3%)
are over 65.
According to the official data only the number of those over 25 in
the country is 5 664 568. Compared to this, the number of people from
18 to 24 years old, according to official statistics, will be about
1.2 million. This means that the number of people who have suffrage
and who reside in Azerbaijan is officially 6.9 million, while in
the voting lists 5.1 million people were registered. This means that
either 1.8 million people are missing from the voting lists or the
number of the population in that country is extremely exaggerated
(the latter is more likely).
Some additional precincts were also established for the people who
had left Arstakh. It is hard to say what is actually happening in
those polling stations. Suffice it to observe that the results from
some twenty precincts from Lachin polling station are up to now not
published in the CECwebsite. It must be noted that in these precincts
more than 95% participation was registered. In all the other cases,
according to the official information, in the polling stations from
120 to 125, 74.04% participation was registered, while the number of
votes Aliyev received amount to 85.67% of all the votes.
Yet the most crucial in this whole story are the voter lists.
Obviously, these precincts are established in order to register and
keep mobilized those people who have left Nagorno Karabakh Republic as
a result of the conflict, and also to use them or their descendants
against Artsakh in the future. To put it another way, we must be
certain that in this particular statistics neither Ilham nor his
propagandists would "concede", not to say they actually exaggerate
it far beyond realities on the ground. And what do we have at the end
of the day? In all the above mentioned precincts, taken together (i.e.
all electoral precincts projected in the territory of present-day
Nagorno Karabakh Republic), according to official voter lists, there
are 233 062 people all in all. As we stand in the year of 2013,
those born in or before 1994 (the year when the ceasefire agreement
was signed among Azerbaijan, Armenia and Nagorno Karabakh, and no
refugee could appear afterwards) have now long passed their 18th
anniversaries and successfully received suffrage. This brings us to a
final argument, that the number of all the people who have ever lived
in the present-day Nagorno Karabakh Republic, is exactly 233 062,
all of whom now appear in the voter lists. Obviously, this number has
a tendency of decline due to natural reasons, and it remains to rest
astonished, why in Baku the official propaganda still speaks of the
"one million refugees" while according to their own official data
the numbers are at least five times less.
http://www.panorama.am/en/politics/2013/10/10/a-minasyan/