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BEHIND ARMENIAN-RUSSIAN CURTAIN
Obviously, Tigran Sargsyan's visit to Moscow had not been planned and
had apparently been initiated by the Armenian side. Evidence is that
the Armenian prime minister met with the deputy prime ministers. Prime
Minister Medvedev did not change his schedule for Armenia's needs.
What was the urgent need to leave for Moscow that Tigran Sargsyan
overlooked the fact of being received by the deputy ministers only? It
is not likely that the Russian side invited him urgently but did not
deign to organize a meeting at the appropriate level. Although, it
is not ruled out that Russia follows a random, rather than political
logic in dealing with Armenia.
Nevertheless, the Armenian side has a concern, and most probably
Yerevan rushed to achieve certainty. It rashes because millions of
dollars, maybe dozens or maybe even hundreds of millions are concerned.
The point is that the Armenian government has announced to cover 30%
of the gas price for ARG. The Public Services Regulatory Commission
has discussed ARG's bid and determined the level to which gas will
rise according to this pledge, not according to ARG's bid of 270 USD
per 1000 cu m.
It has been several months since the gas price rose. The government
covers 30%, either by cash or accrues its debt to ARG. The longer the
Armenian-Russian uncertainty over this issue, the more the Armenian
government's debt to ARG.
It certainly favors Russia because ARG is a Russian company, Russia
holds control interest. In addition, Armenia's last 20% of shares is
said to be transferred to Russia soon. Armenia is trying to accelerate
the decision on subsidy. In fact, Russia will exempt Armenia from
customs duty and the gas price will be reduced by 30%. It is about 90
USD. In other words, now the Armenian government's debt is accruing
by 90 USD per 1000 cu m of gas. If this number is multiplied by the
amount of gas imported to and consumed in Armenia, it will be clear
what a huge sum is concerned.
Official Yerevan wants to resolve this issue. In addition, most
probably, there are two essential things. There is one important
circumstance besides the tax exception, whether it is applied,
when Russia and Armenia will achieve agreement, whether it demands
anything else besides the Customs Capitulation (it could be the last
20% of shares of ARG). In case Russia agrees to the subsidy-exemption,
will it be applied retrospectively, covering the several months that
have passed since the price rose? If yes, the government will thus
avoid a debt to ARG? If not, the government will have to pay to ARG
the debt of the past months. The Russian side does not care about
protraction because the "taximeter" is running.
This is a typical behavior of partners. Such should relations with
allies be. The gas issue is litmus paper of the Armenian-Russian
relations. Russia's gas relations with even the so-called non-friendly
states are clear and simple. Either the issue is resolved quickly or it
is clear what and why is not resolved. In the case of Armenia the gas
issue is a matter of shaded or backstage agreements every time which is
never fully uncovered or is uncovered step by step over a span of time.
It is commonly accepted that the best manifestation of the
Armenian-Russian partnership is in the military-technical and security
spheres. In reality, this is the guise of the Armenian-Russian
relations, the curtain behind which the real relations are taking
place, and sometimes these relations let the gas out.
Hakob Badalyan 11:59 12/10/2013 Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/31085
Obviously, Tigran Sargsyan's visit to Moscow had not been planned and
had apparently been initiated by the Armenian side. Evidence is that
the Armenian prime minister met with the deputy prime ministers. Prime
Minister Medvedev did not change his schedule for Armenia's needs.
What was the urgent need to leave for Moscow that Tigran Sargsyan
overlooked the fact of being received by the deputy ministers only? It
is not likely that the Russian side invited him urgently but did not
deign to organize a meeting at the appropriate level. Although, it
is not ruled out that Russia follows a random, rather than political
logic in dealing with Armenia.
Nevertheless, the Armenian side has a concern, and most probably
Yerevan rushed to achieve certainty. It rashes because millions of
dollars, maybe dozens or maybe even hundreds of millions are concerned.
The point is that the Armenian government has announced to cover 30%
of the gas price for ARG. The Public Services Regulatory Commission
has discussed ARG's bid and determined the level to which gas will
rise according to this pledge, not according to ARG's bid of 270 USD
per 1000 cu m.
It has been several months since the gas price rose. The government
covers 30%, either by cash or accrues its debt to ARG. The longer the
Armenian-Russian uncertainty over this issue, the more the Armenian
government's debt to ARG.
It certainly favors Russia because ARG is a Russian company, Russia
holds control interest. In addition, Armenia's last 20% of shares is
said to be transferred to Russia soon. Armenia is trying to accelerate
the decision on subsidy. In fact, Russia will exempt Armenia from
customs duty and the gas price will be reduced by 30%. It is about 90
USD. In other words, now the Armenian government's debt is accruing
by 90 USD per 1000 cu m of gas. If this number is multiplied by the
amount of gas imported to and consumed in Armenia, it will be clear
what a huge sum is concerned.
Official Yerevan wants to resolve this issue. In addition, most
probably, there are two essential things. There is one important
circumstance besides the tax exception, whether it is applied,
when Russia and Armenia will achieve agreement, whether it demands
anything else besides the Customs Capitulation (it could be the last
20% of shares of ARG). In case Russia agrees to the subsidy-exemption,
will it be applied retrospectively, covering the several months that
have passed since the price rose? If yes, the government will thus
avoid a debt to ARG? If not, the government will have to pay to ARG
the debt of the past months. The Russian side does not care about
protraction because the "taximeter" is running.
This is a typical behavior of partners. Such should relations with
allies be. The gas issue is litmus paper of the Armenian-Russian
relations. Russia's gas relations with even the so-called non-friendly
states are clear and simple. Either the issue is resolved quickly or it
is clear what and why is not resolved. In the case of Armenia the gas
issue is a matter of shaded or backstage agreements every time which is
never fully uncovered or is uncovered step by step over a span of time.
It is commonly accepted that the best manifestation of the
Armenian-Russian partnership is in the military-technical and security
spheres. In reality, this is the guise of the Armenian-Russian
relations, the curtain behind which the real relations are taking
place, and sometimes these relations let the gas out.
Hakob Badalyan 11:59 12/10/2013 Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/31085