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SITUATION FORCED SERZH SARGSYAN TO STAKE ALL
Interview with Andrias Ghukasyan, political scientist
Mr. Ghukasyan, was the September 3 decision to join the Customs Union
made under pressure? And did it promote Russia by one step?
Obviously, that was a force majeure. Serzh Sargsyan's and Vladimir
Putin's decision indicates that the regular course of foreign policy
of Armenia has been disrupted. In other words, there were serious
motives for that and obviously the issue was not just refusal of
the Association Agreement. After all, as of today we have broken
relations with the EU. If there was a reason for not signing the
Association Agreement in Vilnius, there was a way of doing it:
publish the agreement, hold public discussions, collect all the pros
and cons, and Serzh Sargsyan would have an opportunity to tell the EU
that the society is not ready yet. This is the right way of doing it,
whereas he agreement was not published, and a step was taken which not
only blocks the way of association with the EU but endangers regular
relations between Armenia and the EU. Such things are a force majeure
which stops the regular course of policy. I think this situation
and Serzh Sargsyan's move are both related to the settlement of the
conflict over Artsakh. I can see this link.
Do you mean that force majeure was the sale of weapon of 3 billion
dollars to Azerbaijan and threat of war?
The situation pushed Serzh Sargsyan to stake all. Soon we may hear that
Armenia is preparing for unilateral concessions. You know that Turkey
stipulates the return of at least two regions, and in 2014 it will be
20 years since the conflict has been frozen, and the line of contact
is not defended by international trips, and one may suggest that
Serzh Sargsyan has proposed deployment of CSTO troops in Karabakh for
peacekeeping purposes. Hence, the decision to join the Customs Union is
the logical consequence because thereby two issues are resolved: first,
Armenia associates with Russia, second, opportunities open up for
opening the Armenian-Turkish border. Most importantly, Artsakh is in
a situation when Russian forces stand between Artsakh and Azerbaijan,
and there is a BCP of the Customs Union between Artsakh and Armenia,
and all movement to and from Artsakh is controlled by Russia.
Such a solution may interest the United States because opening the
Armenian-Turkish border by 2015 is an important goal for the United
States. It will be a big achievement for the Democratic Party. Over 2
million people live in the United States, and the Democrats should
be interested in their support. Such an arrangement leads to a
perception that membership to the Customs Union is the consequence of
the necessity for a dramatic change in the settlement of the Karabakh
conflict. We can see that what happened gave a surprise to Europe,
not the United States and Russia. I think Serzh Sargsyan's meeting
with the French president was meant to make amends because actually
the rules of international diplomatic relations had been violated.
Serzh Sargsyan stated that Armenia is ready to sign the Association
Agreement. There is an opinion that this is Moscow-Brussels, not
Armenia-Europe relations after all.
In reality, Russia is quite limited by the Olympic Games in Sochi
which prevents Russia from taking abrupt steps against the European
Union. The response could be boycott of the Olympic Games, resulting
in an internal crisis for the top layer of Russia as, besides the
public money, the money of the Russian oligarchy has been invested in
Sochi. A red line runs across the Moscow-Brussels relations, and the
Kremlin cannot cross this line. This means that despite what happened
both Moscow and Yerevan hope that this will be accepted by the EU as
an argument, and Brussels will ignore it because there is a matter
of loss of political reputation and honor. The net output is: Serzh
Sargsyan used the EU in the 2012-2013 electoral processes and threw it
away as something unnecessary. We also felt this from Serzh Sargsyan's
address to the PACE. And all those evaluations of elections which
the Europeans actually gave in advance were returned to the European
members of parliament. Usually, if contracts are terminated early, the
sides return what they received. Now France and the EU need to make a
political decision whether or not to restart the political processes
in Armenia. Should they create a situation which will lead to Serzh
Sargsyan's resignation and restart the political system or will the
Europeans have to admit the arguments that are on the table so they
may not pick up the gauntlet that Serzh Sargsyan threw down to the EU.
This is a slap in the face of the EPP as well because the RPA which
is a member of this party decides to join the Eurasian Union which
cannot be explained in any way because how could an EPP member make
such a decision?
Do you mean that Europe could cause a revolution in Armenia? Are such
u-turns possible?
Trade with Armenia amounts to two billion. If the EU changes its
economic policy on Armenia, Serzh Sargsyan may have to resign.
Mr. Ghukasyan, the opposition proved once again its bankruptcy,
and the political field seems unable to find its place.
Today the civil movements need to review this state of things and
change the strategy of the movement. As to the systemic opposition,
it has been destroyed. Now the problem is whether the opposition that
is outside the system will pass this important stage or not. If the
relations between the EU and the West are over, and Armenia appears
under Russia's influence, the Russian forces are deployed in Artsakh,
Armenia joins the Customs Union, and we forget about democracy. We
saw the examples of Kazakhstan, Belarus, Russia. At this important
stage the society needs to identify whether it is going to have a
role in these processes or not. If not, these important issues will
be resolved within a narrow circle of the regime and great powers.
However, the society does not understand that change depends on it, it
does not consider itself to be a participant of foreign policy making.
For years the stereotyped thinking was that foreign policy is a
closed area, and people learn about its developments post factum. The
examples are many - the Armenian-Turkish process, the Karabakh
settlement. The society is very little aware of these processes,
what has been happening in the Minsk Group over the past 20 years,
the society learned about the Armenian-Turkish protocols when they
had been initalled, the Association Agreement was discussed behind
closed doors for 3.5 years but the society was not aware of what the
EU was offering. The decision on joining the Customs Union was also
published post factum, the society learned about it from TV. Earlier
was the agreement on prolonging the period of deployment of the
Russian military base by 40 years. This is the consequence of the
regime undergoing a deep crisis which is not able to discuss any
geopolitical issue with the society. The regime cannot publish any
information about foreign policy. So, the society needs to figure
out the path of development of the country and prevent the criminal
regime from bargaining national interests. The destiny of Armenia
depends on the civil society.
Siranuysh Papyan 10:51 19/10/2013 Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/interview/view/31135
From: Baghdasarian
Interview with Andrias Ghukasyan, political scientist
Mr. Ghukasyan, was the September 3 decision to join the Customs Union
made under pressure? And did it promote Russia by one step?
Obviously, that was a force majeure. Serzh Sargsyan's and Vladimir
Putin's decision indicates that the regular course of foreign policy
of Armenia has been disrupted. In other words, there were serious
motives for that and obviously the issue was not just refusal of
the Association Agreement. After all, as of today we have broken
relations with the EU. If there was a reason for not signing the
Association Agreement in Vilnius, there was a way of doing it:
publish the agreement, hold public discussions, collect all the pros
and cons, and Serzh Sargsyan would have an opportunity to tell the EU
that the society is not ready yet. This is the right way of doing it,
whereas he agreement was not published, and a step was taken which not
only blocks the way of association with the EU but endangers regular
relations between Armenia and the EU. Such things are a force majeure
which stops the regular course of policy. I think this situation
and Serzh Sargsyan's move are both related to the settlement of the
conflict over Artsakh. I can see this link.
Do you mean that force majeure was the sale of weapon of 3 billion
dollars to Azerbaijan and threat of war?
The situation pushed Serzh Sargsyan to stake all. Soon we may hear that
Armenia is preparing for unilateral concessions. You know that Turkey
stipulates the return of at least two regions, and in 2014 it will be
20 years since the conflict has been frozen, and the line of contact
is not defended by international trips, and one may suggest that
Serzh Sargsyan has proposed deployment of CSTO troops in Karabakh for
peacekeeping purposes. Hence, the decision to join the Customs Union is
the logical consequence because thereby two issues are resolved: first,
Armenia associates with Russia, second, opportunities open up for
opening the Armenian-Turkish border. Most importantly, Artsakh is in
a situation when Russian forces stand between Artsakh and Azerbaijan,
and there is a BCP of the Customs Union between Artsakh and Armenia,
and all movement to and from Artsakh is controlled by Russia.
Such a solution may interest the United States because opening the
Armenian-Turkish border by 2015 is an important goal for the United
States. It will be a big achievement for the Democratic Party. Over 2
million people live in the United States, and the Democrats should
be interested in their support. Such an arrangement leads to a
perception that membership to the Customs Union is the consequence of
the necessity for a dramatic change in the settlement of the Karabakh
conflict. We can see that what happened gave a surprise to Europe,
not the United States and Russia. I think Serzh Sargsyan's meeting
with the French president was meant to make amends because actually
the rules of international diplomatic relations had been violated.
Serzh Sargsyan stated that Armenia is ready to sign the Association
Agreement. There is an opinion that this is Moscow-Brussels, not
Armenia-Europe relations after all.
In reality, Russia is quite limited by the Olympic Games in Sochi
which prevents Russia from taking abrupt steps against the European
Union. The response could be boycott of the Olympic Games, resulting
in an internal crisis for the top layer of Russia as, besides the
public money, the money of the Russian oligarchy has been invested in
Sochi. A red line runs across the Moscow-Brussels relations, and the
Kremlin cannot cross this line. This means that despite what happened
both Moscow and Yerevan hope that this will be accepted by the EU as
an argument, and Brussels will ignore it because there is a matter
of loss of political reputation and honor. The net output is: Serzh
Sargsyan used the EU in the 2012-2013 electoral processes and threw it
away as something unnecessary. We also felt this from Serzh Sargsyan's
address to the PACE. And all those evaluations of elections which
the Europeans actually gave in advance were returned to the European
members of parliament. Usually, if contracts are terminated early, the
sides return what they received. Now France and the EU need to make a
political decision whether or not to restart the political processes
in Armenia. Should they create a situation which will lead to Serzh
Sargsyan's resignation and restart the political system or will the
Europeans have to admit the arguments that are on the table so they
may not pick up the gauntlet that Serzh Sargsyan threw down to the EU.
This is a slap in the face of the EPP as well because the RPA which
is a member of this party decides to join the Eurasian Union which
cannot be explained in any way because how could an EPP member make
such a decision?
Do you mean that Europe could cause a revolution in Armenia? Are such
u-turns possible?
Trade with Armenia amounts to two billion. If the EU changes its
economic policy on Armenia, Serzh Sargsyan may have to resign.
Mr. Ghukasyan, the opposition proved once again its bankruptcy,
and the political field seems unable to find its place.
Today the civil movements need to review this state of things and
change the strategy of the movement. As to the systemic opposition,
it has been destroyed. Now the problem is whether the opposition that
is outside the system will pass this important stage or not. If the
relations between the EU and the West are over, and Armenia appears
under Russia's influence, the Russian forces are deployed in Artsakh,
Armenia joins the Customs Union, and we forget about democracy. We
saw the examples of Kazakhstan, Belarus, Russia. At this important
stage the society needs to identify whether it is going to have a
role in these processes or not. If not, these important issues will
be resolved within a narrow circle of the regime and great powers.
However, the society does not understand that change depends on it, it
does not consider itself to be a participant of foreign policy making.
For years the stereotyped thinking was that foreign policy is a
closed area, and people learn about its developments post factum. The
examples are many - the Armenian-Turkish process, the Karabakh
settlement. The society is very little aware of these processes,
what has been happening in the Minsk Group over the past 20 years,
the society learned about the Armenian-Turkish protocols when they
had been initalled, the Association Agreement was discussed behind
closed doors for 3.5 years but the society was not aware of what the
EU was offering. The decision on joining the Customs Union was also
published post factum, the society learned about it from TV. Earlier
was the agreement on prolonging the period of deployment of the
Russian military base by 40 years. This is the consequence of the
regime undergoing a deep crisis which is not able to discuss any
geopolitical issue with the society. The regime cannot publish any
information about foreign policy. So, the society needs to figure
out the path of development of the country and prevent the criminal
regime from bargaining national interests. The destiny of Armenia
depends on the civil society.
Siranuysh Papyan 10:51 19/10/2013 Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/interview/view/31135
From: Baghdasarian