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SABRINA FRASER: AZERBAIJAN FACES SERIOUS PROBLEMS
16:03 24/10/2013 " REGION
A number of serious challenges are waiting for Ilham Aliyev during
the third term as president: the decline of oil production, the low
index of human rights defense and the threat of Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict resumption. This is stated in the article, of the director
of European programs of the International Crisis Group, ICG, published
on the website of Swiss information-analytical center ISN.
According to Fraser, oil production in Azerbaijan has started to
decline. This reduction will accelerate after 2015. The new gas
fields will hardly recoup the loss of oil revenues. Another problem
she believes is the non-diversified economy: 92% of exports of oil
and oil products were accounted in 2012.
"Besides that, in 2012 and 2013, we have witnessed public protests
that are indicators of dissatisfaction with the inhabitants of the
country inequality, corruption, lack of capacity in the regions and
hazing in the army. Despite the fact that these demonstrations had
run out with mass arrests, they were shocking for both officials and
the public," Sabrina Frazer said.
The article reads that one more - less pronounced, but a serious
threat for Azerbaijan is the rise of Islamic conservatism. In secular
Azerbaijan a new generation of active believers is growing up,
Fraser writes, recalling the protests against the unofficial ban on
the wearing of hijab.
It is also noted that the human rights activists and international
organizations such as the Human Rights Watch and the Amnesty
International, have repeatedly spoken about the lack of progress on
human rights and democracy.
"The recently held presidential elections were criticized more harshly
than the previous ones," Fraser noted. According to her, before this
the human rights problems did not affect the relations between Baku
and the Western countries. However, Azerbaijan's relations with
Western partners are now on more shaky grounds than they used to
be before. Azerbaijan is not going to sign a trade agreement with
Brussels in Vilnius, since it is not a WTO member, and has no plans to
move forward in the process of association with the EU. Taking into
consideration the fact that Azerbaijan is less used as a corridor
for the supply or withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, Washington's
interest in the region is also weakening.
The author also drew attention to the unresolved Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict, stressing that the war would be a disaster for the countries
involved and for the region as a whole. "Now that Armenia has agreed
to join the Customs Union, Russia is unlikely to allow its ally to
be attacked by Azerbaijan," she writes.
Source: Panorama.am
16:03 24/10/2013 " REGION
A number of serious challenges are waiting for Ilham Aliyev during
the third term as president: the decline of oil production, the low
index of human rights defense and the threat of Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict resumption. This is stated in the article, of the director
of European programs of the International Crisis Group, ICG, published
on the website of Swiss information-analytical center ISN.
According to Fraser, oil production in Azerbaijan has started to
decline. This reduction will accelerate after 2015. The new gas
fields will hardly recoup the loss of oil revenues. Another problem
she believes is the non-diversified economy: 92% of exports of oil
and oil products were accounted in 2012.
"Besides that, in 2012 and 2013, we have witnessed public protests
that are indicators of dissatisfaction with the inhabitants of the
country inequality, corruption, lack of capacity in the regions and
hazing in the army. Despite the fact that these demonstrations had
run out with mass arrests, they were shocking for both officials and
the public," Sabrina Frazer said.
The article reads that one more - less pronounced, but a serious
threat for Azerbaijan is the rise of Islamic conservatism. In secular
Azerbaijan a new generation of active believers is growing up,
Fraser writes, recalling the protests against the unofficial ban on
the wearing of hijab.
It is also noted that the human rights activists and international
organizations such as the Human Rights Watch and the Amnesty
International, have repeatedly spoken about the lack of progress on
human rights and democracy.
"The recently held presidential elections were criticized more harshly
than the previous ones," Fraser noted. According to her, before this
the human rights problems did not affect the relations between Baku
and the Western countries. However, Azerbaijan's relations with
Western partners are now on more shaky grounds than they used to
be before. Azerbaijan is not going to sign a trade agreement with
Brussels in Vilnius, since it is not a WTO member, and has no plans to
move forward in the process of association with the EU. Taking into
consideration the fact that Azerbaijan is less used as a corridor
for the supply or withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, Washington's
interest in the region is also weakening.
The author also drew attention to the unresolved Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict, stressing that the war would be a disaster for the countries
involved and for the region as a whole. "Now that Armenia has agreed
to join the Customs Union, Russia is unlikely to allow its ally to
be attacked by Azerbaijan," she writes.
Source: Panorama.am