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WILL SARGSYAN IMPLEMENT "SAAKASHVILI'S PLAN"?
Vestnik Kavkaza, Russia
Sept 3 2013
3 September 2013 - 9:13am
David Stepanyan, Yerevan. Exclusively to Vestnik Kavkaza
It seems the current authorities of Armenia as represented by the
Republican Party (RPA) have decided to rule the republic forever. This
is confirmed by the statement by the chairman of the commission on
state-legal issues of the parliament, David Arutyunyan. He assumed that
soon a packet of amendments to the Constitution would be presented for
an all-national referendum. The amendments require the establishing
of a parliamentary republic.
Considering the fact that ideas on shifting to a parliamentary form
have only existed in Armenia in the opposition environment since its
independence, the statement could be a breakthrough. However, Serge
Sargsyan is thought to be a lame duck. And his political future and
the future of his supporters seemed dim until "the pilot-balloon"
of David Arutyunyan. In the context of the amorphous political
field of the republic, such an initiative could be suggested by the
Republicans with the one and only goal - to provide the reproduction
of the current president through his shifting from the presidential
chair to the premier's chair after the parliamentary elections of
2017. It will enable the current system based on unspoken agreements
to maintain power for some time.
Regarding the scenario, we can conclude that changes in Armenia will
happen not by spring 2018 in presidential elections, but in spring
2017 in the parliamentary elections. The intention to shift to a
parliamentary republic means that the current president has no reliable
successor. Moreover, Sargsyan doesn't hope to find such a person in
4 and a half years. RPA is too disparate to provide the "successor"
operation. The last war of dirty materials between Premier Tigran
Sarkisyan and Speaker Ovik Abramyan demonstrated only the top of the
iceberg of contradictions. At the same time, a presidential candidate
beyond the limits of the party can make quarreling republicans unite
against him.
Furthermore, the discussion of a referendum on shifting to a
parliamentary republic is an exclusive right of the power. Nothing
prevents Sargsyan from implementing Saakashvili's scenario - the only
difference is that Armenia has no its Ivanishvili yet. The scenario
when Saakashvili promoted a parliamentary system and then lost the
elections is impossible for Armenia. This concerns all political
forces of Armenia - Kocharyan's Prosperous Armenia, the Armenian
National Congress, Heritage of Raffi Ovanisyan who has almost won the
presidential elections. All of them tried to compete with Sargsyan's
RPA and they would have no second chance. The Armenian society was
disappointed with these leaders who showed hesitation in a crucial
moment.
However, considering the first reaction by new-republican politicians,
they are not concerned about the prospect of seeing Sargsyan in
the premier's chair after the referendum. The opposition's logic
seems hopeless - "What is the difference whether presidential or
parliamentary elections are falsified?" When the old opposition
is destroyed and there is no new one, it is the best time for the
republicans to secure their power.
At the same time, there is a threat which frightens the future Premier
and his team - youth civil movements. The power cannot "agree" with
them in the way it used to. Furthermore, the situation in Armenia
may change in the near future. The civil activity demonstrated by the
young part of the society consolidates protest forces, and sooner or
later the forces will be headed by new people. So, instead of awaiting
such a scenario, the power tries to avoid it and change the political
system, but not the content. Currently Armenia is a country with a
half-presidential system of government; but as all force, customs,
tax structures are fully controlled by the President, Armenia is a
country with a presidential system of government.
Vestnik Kavkaza, Russia
Sept 3 2013
3 September 2013 - 9:13am
David Stepanyan, Yerevan. Exclusively to Vestnik Kavkaza
It seems the current authorities of Armenia as represented by the
Republican Party (RPA) have decided to rule the republic forever. This
is confirmed by the statement by the chairman of the commission on
state-legal issues of the parliament, David Arutyunyan. He assumed that
soon a packet of amendments to the Constitution would be presented for
an all-national referendum. The amendments require the establishing
of a parliamentary republic.
Considering the fact that ideas on shifting to a parliamentary form
have only existed in Armenia in the opposition environment since its
independence, the statement could be a breakthrough. However, Serge
Sargsyan is thought to be a lame duck. And his political future and
the future of his supporters seemed dim until "the pilot-balloon"
of David Arutyunyan. In the context of the amorphous political
field of the republic, such an initiative could be suggested by the
Republicans with the one and only goal - to provide the reproduction
of the current president through his shifting from the presidential
chair to the premier's chair after the parliamentary elections of
2017. It will enable the current system based on unspoken agreements
to maintain power for some time.
Regarding the scenario, we can conclude that changes in Armenia will
happen not by spring 2018 in presidential elections, but in spring
2017 in the parliamentary elections. The intention to shift to a
parliamentary republic means that the current president has no reliable
successor. Moreover, Sargsyan doesn't hope to find such a person in
4 and a half years. RPA is too disparate to provide the "successor"
operation. The last war of dirty materials between Premier Tigran
Sarkisyan and Speaker Ovik Abramyan demonstrated only the top of the
iceberg of contradictions. At the same time, a presidential candidate
beyond the limits of the party can make quarreling republicans unite
against him.
Furthermore, the discussion of a referendum on shifting to a
parliamentary republic is an exclusive right of the power. Nothing
prevents Sargsyan from implementing Saakashvili's scenario - the only
difference is that Armenia has no its Ivanishvili yet. The scenario
when Saakashvili promoted a parliamentary system and then lost the
elections is impossible for Armenia. This concerns all political
forces of Armenia - Kocharyan's Prosperous Armenia, the Armenian
National Congress, Heritage of Raffi Ovanisyan who has almost won the
presidential elections. All of them tried to compete with Sargsyan's
RPA and they would have no second chance. The Armenian society was
disappointed with these leaders who showed hesitation in a crucial
moment.
However, considering the first reaction by new-republican politicians,
they are not concerned about the prospect of seeing Sargsyan in
the premier's chair after the referendum. The opposition's logic
seems hopeless - "What is the difference whether presidential or
parliamentary elections are falsified?" When the old opposition
is destroyed and there is no new one, it is the best time for the
republicans to secure their power.
At the same time, there is a threat which frightens the future Premier
and his team - youth civil movements. The power cannot "agree" with
them in the way it used to. Furthermore, the situation in Armenia
may change in the near future. The civil activity demonstrated by the
young part of the society consolidates protest forces, and sooner or
later the forces will be headed by new people. So, instead of awaiting
such a scenario, the power tries to avoid it and change the political
system, but not the content. Currently Armenia is a country with a
half-presidential system of government; but as all force, customs,
tax structures are fully controlled by the President, Armenia is a
country with a presidential system of government.