Tweet
ALEXEY KOLOMIETS: ARMENIA-EU ASSOCIATION AGREEMENT MAY SHARE THE FATE OF ARMENIAN-TURKISH PROTOCOLS
ArmInfo's Interview with Alexey Kolomiets, President of the Center for
European and Transatlantic Studies in Kyiv
by David Stepanyan
ARMINFO
Wednesday, September 4, 23:08
Armenia is still going to initial the Association Agreement and DCFTA
at the Vilnius Summit in November. This circumstance has caused serious
discrepancies between Yerevan and Moscow though at the recent meeting
with Russian President Vladimir Putin Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan
has announced the country's intention to join the Customs Union. What
should we expect from this meeting in the future?
I am confident that in this matter everything will depend on the
political will of the Armenian president and the stance of the Armenian
society or its key groups. I think only Putin has understood the
"significance" of the agreements with the EU for Kyiv, when he has
recently said that "Ukraine does not sing an agreement to join any
association". It looks incredible, but behind the wild chatter on the
matter in Ukraine, only Putin voiced the most correct words about the
core of what Europe offers. There is no doubt that during the visit of
President of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan to Moscow, Vladimir Putin imposed
strong pressure upon Sargsyan. However, Putin himself is in a very
hard geo-political situation. He needed success in the talks with
Armenia. But what can he offer Armenia? This is a cardinal question.
All the same, everything will be resolved in the territory of Armenia,
in Yerevan.
What are the prospects of initialing/signing of the Association
Agreement by Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and Armenia during the summit in
Vilnius? Do you think Russia will hinder the signing of the Agreement
between Ukraine and the EU in every possible way?
There is a little prospect for Ukraine to sign the Association
Agreement with the EU during the summit in Vilnius. Yanukovich's
regime in Ukraine has started a primitive, blackmailing game since the
EU-Ukraine February summit. In the EU they do not understand this game,
and that is bad. The so-called opposition forces in the Parliament of
Ukraine seem to have joined this game which is shortfall and chiefly
based on their own political calculations. Against such a background,
perhaps, initialing of the agreements is more possible, but it is
not clear how the situation will develop. It is not clear either how
to combine processes with these association agreements with those
within the EU and its member-states. Just this synchronization is
the key task and requires a great amount of work. Of course, Russia
will interfere in this process in different formats and at different
levels. However, I do not think that what is happening in the trade
relations between Ukraine and Russia is "a trade war". It seems to be
a well-planned general operation. The most interesting and important
thing may begin after possible signing of the agreements with Europe.
There is an opinion saying that there will be nothing following the
initialing of the Association Agreement due to the discrepancies
between these Agreements and the national security of Armenia,
particularly, the Karabakh peace process. Some experts think that
the Armenia-EU Association Agreement may share the fate of the
Armenian-Turkish Protocols. Do you think this scenario possible?
Such a scenario is quite realistic. I cannot say whether it will be
good or bad for Armenia. The Armenia-EU Association Agreement may
share the fate of the Armenian-Turkish Protocols especially given
that the EU is almost becoming a full strategic impotent against the
background of the Syrian problem. The national interests of Armenia
should be inviolable.
Having criticized the Kremlin's stance, Ukrainian President Viktor
Yanukovich pointed out the need to hold a referendum in order to
choose between Eurasian and European integration processes. What was
the President of Ukraine guided by and is the referendum a way out
of the situation?
I think Yanukovich's statement is absolutely destabilizing and
primitive. Actually, Yanukovich has always been guided by personal
gain and deception. Even if we suppose that Ukraine will become a
member of the European Union some day, it will happen in twenty years
or so. Ukraine may hold a referendum on the Customs Union but it will
fall into chaos and desperation shortly after the referendum.
Some experts think that due to integration into the Customs Union,
Ukraine will lose a part of its sovereignty. What risks does the
European integration contain for Kyiv?
This is an important issue for the country. Ukraine does not speak
about it but it will have to sooner or later. At the moment, the
country does not consider transferring its sovereignty to the Customs
Union. Actually, Ukraine's chances to join that structure are almost
equal to zero. As regards the EU, things are much more dramatic
and much more serious here. To all appearances, Ukraine will have
to divide its sovereignty. Moreover, no one knows what the European
Union will be like in 2015. The first parameters of the new European
Union will most likely be visible following its summit in December.
Kyiv and Moscow are already conducting "trade wars" in relation to the
forthcoming signing of the Association Agreement with Europe. What
is the biggest threat for Ukraine? Are the benefits from European
integration able to compensate for it?
I am inclined to think that there have been no "trade wars". But if
they really start, everything will develop very seriously. The biggest
threat is the huge banking sector of Russia in Ukraine. However,
the current regime that has almost led Ukraine to default is even a
bigger threat.
http://www.arminfo.am/index.cfm?objectid=6C13BC70-1595-11E3-9C7C0EB7C0D21663
ArmInfo's Interview with Alexey Kolomiets, President of the Center for
European and Transatlantic Studies in Kyiv
by David Stepanyan
ARMINFO
Wednesday, September 4, 23:08
Armenia is still going to initial the Association Agreement and DCFTA
at the Vilnius Summit in November. This circumstance has caused serious
discrepancies between Yerevan and Moscow though at the recent meeting
with Russian President Vladimir Putin Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan
has announced the country's intention to join the Customs Union. What
should we expect from this meeting in the future?
I am confident that in this matter everything will depend on the
political will of the Armenian president and the stance of the Armenian
society or its key groups. I think only Putin has understood the
"significance" of the agreements with the EU for Kyiv, when he has
recently said that "Ukraine does not sing an agreement to join any
association". It looks incredible, but behind the wild chatter on the
matter in Ukraine, only Putin voiced the most correct words about the
core of what Europe offers. There is no doubt that during the visit of
President of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan to Moscow, Vladimir Putin imposed
strong pressure upon Sargsyan. However, Putin himself is in a very
hard geo-political situation. He needed success in the talks with
Armenia. But what can he offer Armenia? This is a cardinal question.
All the same, everything will be resolved in the territory of Armenia,
in Yerevan.
What are the prospects of initialing/signing of the Association
Agreement by Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and Armenia during the summit in
Vilnius? Do you think Russia will hinder the signing of the Agreement
between Ukraine and the EU in every possible way?
There is a little prospect for Ukraine to sign the Association
Agreement with the EU during the summit in Vilnius. Yanukovich's
regime in Ukraine has started a primitive, blackmailing game since the
EU-Ukraine February summit. In the EU they do not understand this game,
and that is bad. The so-called opposition forces in the Parliament of
Ukraine seem to have joined this game which is shortfall and chiefly
based on their own political calculations. Against such a background,
perhaps, initialing of the agreements is more possible, but it is
not clear how the situation will develop. It is not clear either how
to combine processes with these association agreements with those
within the EU and its member-states. Just this synchronization is
the key task and requires a great amount of work. Of course, Russia
will interfere in this process in different formats and at different
levels. However, I do not think that what is happening in the trade
relations between Ukraine and Russia is "a trade war". It seems to be
a well-planned general operation. The most interesting and important
thing may begin after possible signing of the agreements with Europe.
There is an opinion saying that there will be nothing following the
initialing of the Association Agreement due to the discrepancies
between these Agreements and the national security of Armenia,
particularly, the Karabakh peace process. Some experts think that
the Armenia-EU Association Agreement may share the fate of the
Armenian-Turkish Protocols. Do you think this scenario possible?
Such a scenario is quite realistic. I cannot say whether it will be
good or bad for Armenia. The Armenia-EU Association Agreement may
share the fate of the Armenian-Turkish Protocols especially given
that the EU is almost becoming a full strategic impotent against the
background of the Syrian problem. The national interests of Armenia
should be inviolable.
Having criticized the Kremlin's stance, Ukrainian President Viktor
Yanukovich pointed out the need to hold a referendum in order to
choose between Eurasian and European integration processes. What was
the President of Ukraine guided by and is the referendum a way out
of the situation?
I think Yanukovich's statement is absolutely destabilizing and
primitive. Actually, Yanukovich has always been guided by personal
gain and deception. Even if we suppose that Ukraine will become a
member of the European Union some day, it will happen in twenty years
or so. Ukraine may hold a referendum on the Customs Union but it will
fall into chaos and desperation shortly after the referendum.
Some experts think that due to integration into the Customs Union,
Ukraine will lose a part of its sovereignty. What risks does the
European integration contain for Kyiv?
This is an important issue for the country. Ukraine does not speak
about it but it will have to sooner or later. At the moment, the
country does not consider transferring its sovereignty to the Customs
Union. Actually, Ukraine's chances to join that structure are almost
equal to zero. As regards the EU, things are much more dramatic
and much more serious here. To all appearances, Ukraine will have
to divide its sovereignty. Moreover, no one knows what the European
Union will be like in 2015. The first parameters of the new European
Union will most likely be visible following its summit in December.
Kyiv and Moscow are already conducting "trade wars" in relation to the
forthcoming signing of the Association Agreement with Europe. What
is the biggest threat for Ukraine? Are the benefits from European
integration able to compensate for it?
I am inclined to think that there have been no "trade wars". But if
they really start, everything will develop very seriously. The biggest
threat is the huge banking sector of Russia in Ukraine. However,
the current regime that has almost led Ukraine to default is even a
bigger threat.
http://www.arminfo.am/index.cfm?objectid=6C13BC70-1595-11E3-9C7C0EB7C0D21663