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CUSTOMS UNION VS. EU: ARMENIA'S WRONG CHOICE
Trend, Azerbaijan
Sept 4 2013
Azerbaijan, Baku, Sept. 4 / Trend /
Trend commentator Elmira Tariverdiyeva
Looking at Yerevan's rushing between Russia's initiative on the Customs
Union and an agreement on the association and free trade zone with
the EU, one can recall the parable about a donkey which could not
choose which one of two haystacks and died of starvation.
Although the donkey made a choice in this situation, this does not
testify to the fact that it will survive. The fact is that from the
legal point of view it is impossible to be a member of the Customs
Union and to have an agreement on association and free trade with
the EU. This means that Yerevan lost considerably again.
The fact that Armenia will try to placate Russia was obvious.
Relations between the two countries have recently weakened because
Yerevan began establishing trade relations with the EU. An agreement
on the association and free trade zone between the EU and Armenia
was to be initialled at Vilnius during the upcoming November summit
which of course will slightly improve the deplorable situation of
the country's people.
Armenia, along with Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova, quite actively were
moving in the direction of initialling the Association Agreement in
Vilnius. Brussels has recently even recognised Armenia as a leader
of the programme in terms of reforms.
However, the Armenian authorities are completely indifferent about
the living conditions of the people, but the Russian leadership's
attitude to them personally is important. Yerevan is even more upset
that relations between Baku and Moscow for many years remain friendly.
Russian President Vladimir Putin's recent visit to Azerbaijan
confirmed this.
Judging by the Armenian president's press service information, as soon
as the Kremlin confirmed Putin's visit to Baku, Sargsyan started to
pack his bags to fly to Moscow.
But the Armenian leader voiced his consent to join the Customs Union
and at the same time sacrificed the relative prosperity of Armenian
people.
The fact is that Armenia having no border with Russia, will gain
little from joining the Customs Union. In fact, there is no economic
feasibility for Armenia as a result of joining the Union. But one can
understand the political implications of Yerevan's actions. Yerevan's
logic is very simple - old friends and old wine is best.
So, if one agrees with Moscow's initiative, one can save friendship
with a long-time ally and partner. Alas, Armenia has no idea about
the balance policy, so the country's rushing about is fully justified.
Well, a poor and a dependent country conflicting with its neighbours
cannot be independent. In this case, it is necessary to bend or yield
even in the issue of its own national interests.
As for Russia, Moscow needs poor little Armenia in the Customs Union
only for political, rather than economic participation.
In this case, the Armenian president's team knew about the risks. The
internal situation will deteriorate after Sargsyan's decision and
will turn against him.
The fact is that on the one hand Sargsyan's team tried to succeed in
the process of European integration. Now, the authorities will have
difficulty to explain why Armenia joins the Customs Union instead of
signing an association agreement and why ordinary people again became
a bargaining chip in the bid for the big neighbour's good attitude.
Trend, Azerbaijan
Sept 4 2013
Azerbaijan, Baku, Sept. 4 / Trend /
Trend commentator Elmira Tariverdiyeva
Looking at Yerevan's rushing between Russia's initiative on the Customs
Union and an agreement on the association and free trade zone with
the EU, one can recall the parable about a donkey which could not
choose which one of two haystacks and died of starvation.
Although the donkey made a choice in this situation, this does not
testify to the fact that it will survive. The fact is that from the
legal point of view it is impossible to be a member of the Customs
Union and to have an agreement on association and free trade with
the EU. This means that Yerevan lost considerably again.
The fact that Armenia will try to placate Russia was obvious.
Relations between the two countries have recently weakened because
Yerevan began establishing trade relations with the EU. An agreement
on the association and free trade zone between the EU and Armenia
was to be initialled at Vilnius during the upcoming November summit
which of course will slightly improve the deplorable situation of
the country's people.
Armenia, along with Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova, quite actively were
moving in the direction of initialling the Association Agreement in
Vilnius. Brussels has recently even recognised Armenia as a leader
of the programme in terms of reforms.
However, the Armenian authorities are completely indifferent about
the living conditions of the people, but the Russian leadership's
attitude to them personally is important. Yerevan is even more upset
that relations between Baku and Moscow for many years remain friendly.
Russian President Vladimir Putin's recent visit to Azerbaijan
confirmed this.
Judging by the Armenian president's press service information, as soon
as the Kremlin confirmed Putin's visit to Baku, Sargsyan started to
pack his bags to fly to Moscow.
But the Armenian leader voiced his consent to join the Customs Union
and at the same time sacrificed the relative prosperity of Armenian
people.
The fact is that Armenia having no border with Russia, will gain
little from joining the Customs Union. In fact, there is no economic
feasibility for Armenia as a result of joining the Union. But one can
understand the political implications of Yerevan's actions. Yerevan's
logic is very simple - old friends and old wine is best.
So, if one agrees with Moscow's initiative, one can save friendship
with a long-time ally and partner. Alas, Armenia has no idea about
the balance policy, so the country's rushing about is fully justified.
Well, a poor and a dependent country conflicting with its neighbours
cannot be independent. In this case, it is necessary to bend or yield
even in the issue of its own national interests.
As for Russia, Moscow needs poor little Armenia in the Customs Union
only for political, rather than economic participation.
In this case, the Armenian president's team knew about the risks. The
internal situation will deteriorate after Sargsyan's decision and
will turn against him.
The fact is that on the one hand Sargsyan's team tried to succeed in
the process of European integration. Now, the authorities will have
difficulty to explain why Armenia joins the Customs Union instead of
signing an association agreement and why ordinary people again became
a bargaining chip in the bid for the big neighbour's good attitude.