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WILL ARMENIA'S CHOOSING CUSTOMS UNION CHANGE EUROPE'S ATTITUDE TOWARDS NAGORNO KARABAKH CONFLICT? - ANALYSIS
APA, Azerbaijan
Sept 4 2013
[ 04 September 2013 16:06 ]
If the West does not meet the expectations of Azerbaijan, it will
lose its positions in the South Caucasus once and for all
Baku. Vugar Masimoghlu - APA. Armenia has made a choice between Europe
and Russia and officially turned back on Europe with its decision to
join the Customs Union. Yerevan's "attempt" to play among the two
power centers failed in the short run. With the decision announced
yesterday Armenia once confirmed that it is not and will not be an
independent player.
Armenia has made official its strategic choice passing a decision to
join the Customs Union. It is not surprising that a country, which
is not independent from political, economic and military point of
view and is an outpost of Russia in the South Caucasus, has selected
Moscow instead of Brussels. It was surprising that earlier, Armenia
intended to sign an association agreement with the European Union
and Europe sincerely believed this intention. Europe is well aware of
Russia's dominant position in the policy of Armenia and it was naive
to think that it would draw Yerevan out of Moscow's influence with
the association agreement. Europe is suffering from this superficial
approach.
The membership of the Customs Union crossed out Armenia's Europe
prospects and means the gradual loss of Europe's initiative to
interfere in Russia's influence - the importance of the "Eastern
Partnership" program. Europe is expected to face the same fate
regarding Belarus after Armenia. Thus, the target countries of the
"Eastern Partnership" program will be only GUAM member states.
A question arises - Why Armenia, which was aware of Russia's plans on
the Customs Union and its place in this project, was going to sign an
association agreement with the European Union? It should be estimated
as an indirect message of Armenia to Russia. The migration crisis and
economic collapse in the country and the sharp decrease of financial
means transferred to the budget of Armenia through Diaspora obliged
Armenia to think.
The world is facing a serious financial crisis, which has led to the
decrease of Diaspora donations. On the other hand, the investments
in Armenia's economy by the countries, where the Armenian Diaspora
organizations are strong, have also decreased. Last year, direct
foreign investment in Armenia's economy dropped 64%. Russia has
invested a total of $38 million in Armenia's economy this year.
Though Armenia, which is facing severe economic crisis due to
the self-isolated policy relies on Russia, the support of Moscow
is restricted to political and military support. In the recent
presidential elections, some candidates accused Russia over the lack
of economic support and some of them showed Europe as a way out of
the situation. These views should be assessed as an approach of the
Armenian society, not of separate political circles.
Armenia's attempt to sign the association agreement with the European
Union was a message to Russia. Threatening Russia with European
integration plans shows that Armenia can't objectively evaluate its
foreign influence capabilities and political maneuvering opportunities
are so limited that it can be easily predicted ("It will be finally
admitted to the Customs Union", "It will do what Russia says" and
other evaluations).
Russian President Vladimir Putin's policy towards Azerbaijan has also
influenced Armenia's choice of the Customs Union. The statements issued
in Baku and steady development of relations between Azerbaijan and
Russia caused the fear in Yerevan that "Moscow may refuse the mission
of guarantor of Armenia's security" and this fear objectively made the
neighboring country hastily formalize its role as "Russia's mistress".
The European Union's superficial assessment of the processes also
played a key role in this process. Europe that doesn't seriously
interfere in the process of settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
and tries only to ensure its economic interests in the region has
jeopardized its long-term plans. Though, steps were taken to remove
the South Caucasus region from the sphere of influence of Russia
(the Eastern Partnership, energy projects, visa facilitation regime
for the South Caucasus countries, financial aid, etc.), political
basis has not been established. One can also see these mistakes in
the West's relations with Georgia.
The only way for the West, wishing to gain strength in the South
Caucasus, is to appeal to Azerbaijan that has openly declared its
policy of European integration and is pursuing a balanced policy.
Unlike Armenia and Georgia, the West shouldn't repeat its mistakes
regarding Azerbaijan. Baku has made its energy resources an important
factor of the foreign policy and assumed an important role in ensuring
energy security of Europe.
Azerbaijan has expectations from Europe - unlike Europe, the official
Baku wants to ensure political interests rather than economic
interests and doesn't hide that the main objective of the energy
policy is to obtain results in the settlement of Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict. Following the recent step of Armenia, it would be another
mistake for the West not to assess these expectations.
The first statements of the EU officials on Sargsyan's decision to
join the Customs Union bore initial signs of it. For example, German
member of the European Parliament and chairman of its Foreign Affairs
Committee Elmar Brok stated that the European Union not dealing with
this issue up to now should be seriously interested in the solution of
"frozen conflicts". It is not excluded that high-ranking officials
would make similar statements soon.
http://en.apa.az/news/198824
APA, Azerbaijan
Sept 4 2013
[ 04 September 2013 16:06 ]
If the West does not meet the expectations of Azerbaijan, it will
lose its positions in the South Caucasus once and for all
Baku. Vugar Masimoghlu - APA. Armenia has made a choice between Europe
and Russia and officially turned back on Europe with its decision to
join the Customs Union. Yerevan's "attempt" to play among the two
power centers failed in the short run. With the decision announced
yesterday Armenia once confirmed that it is not and will not be an
independent player.
Armenia has made official its strategic choice passing a decision to
join the Customs Union. It is not surprising that a country, which
is not independent from political, economic and military point of
view and is an outpost of Russia in the South Caucasus, has selected
Moscow instead of Brussels. It was surprising that earlier, Armenia
intended to sign an association agreement with the European Union
and Europe sincerely believed this intention. Europe is well aware of
Russia's dominant position in the policy of Armenia and it was naive
to think that it would draw Yerevan out of Moscow's influence with
the association agreement. Europe is suffering from this superficial
approach.
The membership of the Customs Union crossed out Armenia's Europe
prospects and means the gradual loss of Europe's initiative to
interfere in Russia's influence - the importance of the "Eastern
Partnership" program. Europe is expected to face the same fate
regarding Belarus after Armenia. Thus, the target countries of the
"Eastern Partnership" program will be only GUAM member states.
A question arises - Why Armenia, which was aware of Russia's plans on
the Customs Union and its place in this project, was going to sign an
association agreement with the European Union? It should be estimated
as an indirect message of Armenia to Russia. The migration crisis and
economic collapse in the country and the sharp decrease of financial
means transferred to the budget of Armenia through Diaspora obliged
Armenia to think.
The world is facing a serious financial crisis, which has led to the
decrease of Diaspora donations. On the other hand, the investments
in Armenia's economy by the countries, where the Armenian Diaspora
organizations are strong, have also decreased. Last year, direct
foreign investment in Armenia's economy dropped 64%. Russia has
invested a total of $38 million in Armenia's economy this year.
Though Armenia, which is facing severe economic crisis due to
the self-isolated policy relies on Russia, the support of Moscow
is restricted to political and military support. In the recent
presidential elections, some candidates accused Russia over the lack
of economic support and some of them showed Europe as a way out of
the situation. These views should be assessed as an approach of the
Armenian society, not of separate political circles.
Armenia's attempt to sign the association agreement with the European
Union was a message to Russia. Threatening Russia with European
integration plans shows that Armenia can't objectively evaluate its
foreign influence capabilities and political maneuvering opportunities
are so limited that it can be easily predicted ("It will be finally
admitted to the Customs Union", "It will do what Russia says" and
other evaluations).
Russian President Vladimir Putin's policy towards Azerbaijan has also
influenced Armenia's choice of the Customs Union. The statements issued
in Baku and steady development of relations between Azerbaijan and
Russia caused the fear in Yerevan that "Moscow may refuse the mission
of guarantor of Armenia's security" and this fear objectively made the
neighboring country hastily formalize its role as "Russia's mistress".
The European Union's superficial assessment of the processes also
played a key role in this process. Europe that doesn't seriously
interfere in the process of settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
and tries only to ensure its economic interests in the region has
jeopardized its long-term plans. Though, steps were taken to remove
the South Caucasus region from the sphere of influence of Russia
(the Eastern Partnership, energy projects, visa facilitation regime
for the South Caucasus countries, financial aid, etc.), political
basis has not been established. One can also see these mistakes in
the West's relations with Georgia.
The only way for the West, wishing to gain strength in the South
Caucasus, is to appeal to Azerbaijan that has openly declared its
policy of European integration and is pursuing a balanced policy.
Unlike Armenia and Georgia, the West shouldn't repeat its mistakes
regarding Azerbaijan. Baku has made its energy resources an important
factor of the foreign policy and assumed an important role in ensuring
energy security of Europe.
Azerbaijan has expectations from Europe - unlike Europe, the official
Baku wants to ensure political interests rather than economic
interests and doesn't hide that the main objective of the energy
policy is to obtain results in the settlement of Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict. Following the recent step of Armenia, it would be another
mistake for the West not to assess these expectations.
The first statements of the EU officials on Sargsyan's decision to
join the Customs Union bore initial signs of it. For example, German
member of the European Parliament and chairman of its Foreign Affairs
Committee Elmar Brok stated that the European Union not dealing with
this issue up to now should be seriously interested in the solution of
"frozen conflicts". It is not excluded that high-ranking officials
would make similar statements soon.
http://en.apa.az/news/198824