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  • Caucasus, Central Asian Countries Warily Assessing Impending Attack

    CAUCASUS, CENTRAL ASIAN COUNTRIES WARILY ASSESSING IMPENDING ATTACK ON SYRIA

    EurasiaNet.org
    Sept 4 2013

    September 4, 2013 - 11:40am, by Joshua Kucera

    The impending attack by the U.S. on Syria has dominated the world's
    attention for the last week or so. And the powers surrounding the
    Caucasus and Central Asia -- notably Russia, Turkey, and Iran --
    have been among the most active in discussing Syria, with Russia
    and Iran backing the government of Bashar al-Assad and Turkey one
    of the strongest supporters of the rebels. In spite of, or perhaps
    as a result, of that, the countries in between have taken a cautious
    approach to the possibility of U.S. military involvement in Syria.

    Befitting its strong attachment to the U.S., Georgia's foreign ministry
    made a statement that appeared to endorse the American position that
    Assad's government should be punished for the use of chemical weapons:

    "Georgia welcomes and supports readiness of the international community
    to play more active role in resolving humanitarian crisis in Syria
    and to hold the regime that committed this crime accountable for
    violating the fundamental international humanitarian norm."

    Georgia's position is largely a factor of its ties to Turkey and the
    U.S., Michael Cecire, a Washington-based analyst of Georgia and the
    Caucasus, told The Bug Pit:

    The Georgian government is happy to defer to their partners in the West
    and in nearby Turkey to take the lead on the issue. When it comes to
    Syria, Tbilisi's primary geopolitical concerns would be to ensure that
    the consequences from an intervention did not lead to destabilization
    in the South Caucasus. The Assad regime's closeness to Hezbollah and
    Iran, which both operate in the Caucasus to varying extents, makes
    this at least a possibility -- particularly in light of Hezbollah's
    alleged role in an early 2012 disarmed bombing attempt in Tbilisi.

    But overall, I think Georgia is most keen to demonstrate its support
    to the West and Ankara without committing itself to an issue with
    which it currently has no immediate, clear national interests.

    Azerbaijan has been more circumspect about its position, which again
    would seem to be a factor of its attempt to maintain good relations
    with both Turkey and Russia. The head of the foreign relations
    department under the president of Azerbaijan, Novruz Mammadov, told
    reporters: "The position is being discussed between the Congress and
    the President of this country... It would've been better if we have
    expressed our own opinion after their opinion is made concrete,"

    Perhaps the keenest interest in the region is on the part of Armenia,
    given that a substantial Armenian minority lives in Syria. Many
    Syrian Armenians have already fled to Armenia, though the government
    has struggled to cope with the wave of refugees. As for Yerevan's
    policy on an American attack, the government is trying to stay out
    of it, though privately is against such an attack, Sergey Minasyan,
    a Yerevan-based analys at the Caucasus Institutet, told The Bug Pit.

    "Armenia's vital interest is just to avoid any attack/deepening of the
    conflict/external involvement (especially from Turkish side," he said.

    "The Armenian government will try to preserve neutrality as long as
    possible without any strict respond/positioning and to prepare for
    a new Armenian refugees wave from Syria."

    Naturally, the events in Syria also have provided an opportunity
    for Armenia and Azerbaijan to spar over the disputed territory of
    Nagorno Karabakh: Azerbaijan complained to the United Nations that
    Armenia is resettling Syrian refugees in Karabakh, while Karabakh's
    de facto foreign ministry has denied that is the case with even a
    single Syrian refugee:

    Azerbaijan is trying to use the Syrian crisis for its political goals,
    which is currently under the focus of the international community,
    in particular the fate of the Syrian Armenians that, along with
    other Syrian refugees, are forced to find refuge in different parts
    of the world.

    Overwhelmed by its mania of distorting the essence of the conflict and
    misleading the international community, the Minister of Foreign Affairs
    of Azerbaijan did not hesitate to use obvious lies and misinformation.

    Across the Caspian in Central Asia, the governments have less at stake
    and are more inclined to defer to Russia. Kazakhstan's foreign ministry
    issued a statement saying that, if confirmed, the use of chemical
    weapons by the government would be a "crime against humanity." But
    it added, "Kazakhstan calls on the international community to show
    restraint and to assess the situation based on the final conclusions
    of UN experts."

    In the end, though, Astana will follow Moscow, Daniyar Kosnazarov,
    an Almaty-based analyst at the Eurasian Research Institute, told
    The Bug Pit: "Kazakhstan's position or the tone of its statement, if
    the intervention will begin, will certainly depend on the Kremlin's
    reaction, which is strongly against any military intervention by the
    U.S. However, one should assume that Astana in any case will again
    call for the urgent end of the conflict."

    The government of Kyrgyzstan is taking a similar stance, Shairbek
    Juraev, a political analyst at the American University of Central Asia,
    told The Bug Pit: "The only dimension of this case that is relevant
    to us [in Kyrgyzstan] is the fact that the key major international
    partners of Kyrgyzstan are on different sides of the debate, with
    Russia and China clearly opposing, and U.S. and Turkey clearly ready
    to attack. An eventual statement of Kyrgyzstan would most likely come
    from its solidarity with some of its international partners. The
    approaching [Shanghai Cooperation Organization] summit in Bishkek
    may speed up taking a stance."

    http://www.eurasianet.org/node/67463

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