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JILTING EU, ARMENIA TIES KNOT WITH MOSCOW
Wall Street Journal, NY
Sept 4 2013
By NAFTALI BENDAVID And LAURENCE NORMAN
European diplomats were stunned this week by word that Armenia, which
had been heading toward strengthening ties with the European Union,
will instead join a customs union led by Russia-handing the Kremlin
a victory in its tug of war with Brussels for influence in the region.
The question now is whether Armenia's move foreshadows similar
decisions by other former Soviet republics.
Armenia's shift was announced Tuesday in a statement posted on the
Kremlin website during a meeting between Russian President Vladimir
Putin and his Armenian counterpart, Serzh Sargsyan.
"This is a rational decision, it is a decision based on Armenia's
national interests," President Sargsyan said afterward, according
to a transcript on the Kremlin's website. "The decision is not a
rejection of our dialogue with European institutions."
The small country in the South Caucasus region had been expected to
initial an "association agreement" with the EU at a summit in November,
in Vilnius, Lithuania, strengthening trade relations while committing
Armenia to democratic changes.
But Mr. Putin has been turning up the pressure on the countries
sandwiched between Russia and the EU to join forces with its own
nascent customs union, which already includes Belarus and Kazakhstan.
Russia is widely seen as the dominant partner.
Countries in the Moscow-led customs union can't be integrated into
the EU, European officials say, because they have effectively ceded
sovereignty over trade issues to Russia.
While Mr. Putin said Tuesday it was Armenia's decision to join the
bloc, few in Brussels doubt that Armenia's abrupt policy change came
because Moscow raised the costs of pursuing closer EU ties.
Russia has powerful leverage because it's the country's natural-gas
supplier and can determine the price of fuel. Thousands of Russian
troops are based in Armenia and Moscow has formal security guarantees
in place, which have bolstered Armenia in its bitter conflict with
neighboring Azerbaijan over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Even so, the intensity of what Europeans see as Russian pressure
tactics and the speed of Armenia's U-turn have spooked EU officials.
It was just six weeks ago-July 24-that the European Commission
completed years of talks with Armenia on the association accord,
and Armenian officials were assuring their Brussels counterparts that
there would be no stepping back.
"The pressures on Armenia were known, and in that sense it is not a
surprise," said Jacek Saryusz-Wolski, a Polish member of the European
Parliament's foreign-affairs committee. "But the fact that the pressure
succeeded in getting Armenia, under force if you wish, to change its
decision-that is a surprise, and we profoundly regret it."
In terms of trade, Armenia is not a huge prize for either side. Its
economy is relatively small, with a gross domestic product of [email protected]
billion ($10 billion).
But EU leaders had apparently seen the conclusion of the association
deal as a diplomatic victory.
Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt reflected the widespread
frustration among European leaders in a tweet: "Armenia negotiated
4 years to get Association Agreement with EU. Now President prefers
Kremlin to Brussels."
One Western diplomat with knowledge of the situation said Armenia
had negotiated with the EU in good faith, but "they themselves did
not expect this kind of pressure from Russia."
He said that the EU will continue to work with Armenia on issues like
easing visa procedures, and that Armenia could change direction yet
again as it confronts Russia's dominance within the customs union.
Moscow's customs union is supposed to evolve in 2015 into a more
comprehensive Eurasian Economic Union, which Russian leaders foresee
as a counterweight to the EU.
Armenia's move illustrates the pressure on countries that find
themselves pulled between East and West, and could mean trouble for
others considering linking with the EU.
Ukraine, for example, is expected to sign its own long-awaited EU
association agreement at the November summit, and Moldova and Georgia
are scheduled to tentatively initial such deals at the same time.
"It is the general context which is so worrying," Mr. Saryusz-Wolski
said. "This pressure concerns all the four countries (including
Armenia) on the road to association. It's part of the wider picture,
and the fear that it might provoke a domino effect."
EU officials' surprise was evident Wednesday in their hesitant initial
responses. "We are seeking further clarification from the Armenian
side," said Maja Kocijancic, an EU foreign affairs spokeswoman. "Then
we will be able to assess the implications."
A European diplomat called Armenia's switch a "wake-up call" on
Russia's intentions. But he said it doesn't necessarily follow that
other countries will spurn the EU; Georgian leaders remain deeply
angry over Russia's 2008 invasion of their country, while Ukraine
and Moldova have made strong public commitments to Europe.
The battle over the EU's Eastern Partnership-which includes Armenia,
Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, Azerbaijan and Belarus-is only one of the
current flash points between Europe and Russia.
Russia has complained about EU rules that force the splitting of
giant energy utilities, with Mr. Putin repeatedly accusing Brussels of
"confiscating" Russia's investment in some EU countries.
The EU, for its part, became the first entity to take Russia to the
World Trade Organization over special taxes Moscow imposes on vehicle
imports. European officials also criticize Moscow for blocking efforts
to isolate Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324577304579054931777439514.html
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
Wall Street Journal, NY
Sept 4 2013
By NAFTALI BENDAVID And LAURENCE NORMAN
European diplomats were stunned this week by word that Armenia, which
had been heading toward strengthening ties with the European Union,
will instead join a customs union led by Russia-handing the Kremlin
a victory in its tug of war with Brussels for influence in the region.
The question now is whether Armenia's move foreshadows similar
decisions by other former Soviet republics.
Armenia's shift was announced Tuesday in a statement posted on the
Kremlin website during a meeting between Russian President Vladimir
Putin and his Armenian counterpart, Serzh Sargsyan.
"This is a rational decision, it is a decision based on Armenia's
national interests," President Sargsyan said afterward, according
to a transcript on the Kremlin's website. "The decision is not a
rejection of our dialogue with European institutions."
The small country in the South Caucasus region had been expected to
initial an "association agreement" with the EU at a summit in November,
in Vilnius, Lithuania, strengthening trade relations while committing
Armenia to democratic changes.
But Mr. Putin has been turning up the pressure on the countries
sandwiched between Russia and the EU to join forces with its own
nascent customs union, which already includes Belarus and Kazakhstan.
Russia is widely seen as the dominant partner.
Countries in the Moscow-led customs union can't be integrated into
the EU, European officials say, because they have effectively ceded
sovereignty over trade issues to Russia.
While Mr. Putin said Tuesday it was Armenia's decision to join the
bloc, few in Brussels doubt that Armenia's abrupt policy change came
because Moscow raised the costs of pursuing closer EU ties.
Russia has powerful leverage because it's the country's natural-gas
supplier and can determine the price of fuel. Thousands of Russian
troops are based in Armenia and Moscow has formal security guarantees
in place, which have bolstered Armenia in its bitter conflict with
neighboring Azerbaijan over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Even so, the intensity of what Europeans see as Russian pressure
tactics and the speed of Armenia's U-turn have spooked EU officials.
It was just six weeks ago-July 24-that the European Commission
completed years of talks with Armenia on the association accord,
and Armenian officials were assuring their Brussels counterparts that
there would be no stepping back.
"The pressures on Armenia were known, and in that sense it is not a
surprise," said Jacek Saryusz-Wolski, a Polish member of the European
Parliament's foreign-affairs committee. "But the fact that the pressure
succeeded in getting Armenia, under force if you wish, to change its
decision-that is a surprise, and we profoundly regret it."
In terms of trade, Armenia is not a huge prize for either side. Its
economy is relatively small, with a gross domestic product of [email protected]
billion ($10 billion).
But EU leaders had apparently seen the conclusion of the association
deal as a diplomatic victory.
Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt reflected the widespread
frustration among European leaders in a tweet: "Armenia negotiated
4 years to get Association Agreement with EU. Now President prefers
Kremlin to Brussels."
One Western diplomat with knowledge of the situation said Armenia
had negotiated with the EU in good faith, but "they themselves did
not expect this kind of pressure from Russia."
He said that the EU will continue to work with Armenia on issues like
easing visa procedures, and that Armenia could change direction yet
again as it confronts Russia's dominance within the customs union.
Moscow's customs union is supposed to evolve in 2015 into a more
comprehensive Eurasian Economic Union, which Russian leaders foresee
as a counterweight to the EU.
Armenia's move illustrates the pressure on countries that find
themselves pulled between East and West, and could mean trouble for
others considering linking with the EU.
Ukraine, for example, is expected to sign its own long-awaited EU
association agreement at the November summit, and Moldova and Georgia
are scheduled to tentatively initial such deals at the same time.
"It is the general context which is so worrying," Mr. Saryusz-Wolski
said. "This pressure concerns all the four countries (including
Armenia) on the road to association. It's part of the wider picture,
and the fear that it might provoke a domino effect."
EU officials' surprise was evident Wednesday in their hesitant initial
responses. "We are seeking further clarification from the Armenian
side," said Maja Kocijancic, an EU foreign affairs spokeswoman. "Then
we will be able to assess the implications."
A European diplomat called Armenia's switch a "wake-up call" on
Russia's intentions. But he said it doesn't necessarily follow that
other countries will spurn the EU; Georgian leaders remain deeply
angry over Russia's 2008 invasion of their country, while Ukraine
and Moldova have made strong public commitments to Europe.
The battle over the EU's Eastern Partnership-which includes Armenia,
Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, Azerbaijan and Belarus-is only one of the
current flash points between Europe and Russia.
Russia has complained about EU rules that force the splitting of
giant energy utilities, with Mr. Putin repeatedly accusing Brussels of
"confiscating" Russia's investment in some EU countries.
The EU, for its part, became the first entity to take Russia to the
World Trade Organization over special taxes Moscow imposes on vehicle
imports. European officials also criticize Moscow for blocking efforts
to isolate Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324577304579054931777439514.html
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress