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RUSSIA PILES PRESSURE ON FORMER SOVIET SATELLITES TO DROP EU ASPIRATIONS
The Sofia Globe, Bulgaria
Sept 5 2013
Written by Alex Bivol
As the Vilnius summit of EU's Eastern Partnership draws nearer, at
which several former Soviet states are expected to sign association
agreements with the EU, Russia appears to have stepped up efforts to
pull those same former Soviet states closer and into its own Customs
Union, with mixed results.
On the surface, it appears to be a simple choice between which free
trade agreement would offer those countries a better economic incentive
- but where the EU can wield the carrot of foreign aid, Russia leans
on the stick of threatening to withhold energy resources (and, unlike
the EU, could not care less about asking for lasting reforms).
In the long run, Russian president Vladimir Putin sees the Customs
Union as the building block of the Eurasian Economic Union - outlining
its key institutions in an article he penned for Russia's newspaper
of record, Izvestia, in October 2011.
Despite pointing out in that piece that that the new entity was not
meant to hijack the EU aspirations of former Soviet republics, it has
become clear that at the very least the Eurasian Union is meant as
a counterweight to the EU, but also a way to bring the former Soviet
states closer into Russia's orbit in a way that the Commonwealth of
Independent States (which former out of the ashes of the Soviet Union
in December 1991) never quite managed.
One of the four countries expected to initial an association and
free trade agreement with the EU at the Eastern Partnership summit
in Vilnius in November, Armenia, has now given in to Russian wooing,
announcing that it would join the Moscow-led Customs Union.
Given the government change in Georgia, which has lead to the thawing
of relations with Russia, Tbilisi could be expected to follow suit.
Indeed, pro-Russian prime minister Bidzina Ivanishvili said on
September 4 that his government was "studying" the customs union issue,
although that statement was later clarified to mean that membership
was not an option, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported.
But in Moldova, Russia's efforts have been unsuccessful so far,
prompting a deputy Russian prime minister to make not-so-subtle threats
that the country could find itself freezing come winter. And the big
prize, Ukraine, appears also out of the Kremlin's grasp.
Abrupt announcement
Armenian president Serzh Sargsyan's announcement on September 3,
following talks with Putin in Moscow, appeared to take the EU by
surprise.
"We look forward to understanding better from Armenia what their
intentions are and how they wish to ensure compatibility between these
and the commitments undertaken through the Association Agreement and
the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area," the European Commission
said in a statement. "Once this consultation has been completed,
we will draw our conclusions on the way forward."
The bafflement was best summed up by Swedish foreign minister Carl
Bildt, a frequent visitor to Eastern Partnership countries in recent
years, who tweeted: "Armenia negotiated 4 years to get Association
Agreement with EU. Now President prefers Kremlin to Brussels."
It appears security concerns - Armenia still has an unsolved dispute
over Nagorno-Karabakh with Azerbaijan - might have played the decisive
role in Sargsyan's decision, according interpretations by some EU
politicians, like British MEP Charles Tannock, who told the BBC
on September 5 that concern about Russian arms sales to Azerbaijan
appeared to have influenced Sargsyan more than any other issue.
Sargsyan's own statement at the joint news conference with Putin could
certainly be interpreted to lend credence to such claims. "Twenty
years ago, Armenia in cooperation with Russia and other CIS countries
established its military security structure in the format of the
Collective Security Treaty Organization. Through these decades,
the structure proved its viability and efficiency," he said.
"Currently, our CSTO partners are forming a new platform for economic
cooperation. I have said on many occasions that participating in one
military security structure makes it unfeasible and inefficient to
stay away from the relevant geo-economic area."
Under pressure
Moldova is home to the other major "frozen conflict" dating back
to the immediate aftermath of the Soviet Union's dissolution, with
the de-facto independent (albeit unrecognised by the international
community) breakaway region of Transnistria, or Pridnestrovie, as
its Moscow-backed government calls it.
Over the past two decades, Moscow has opposed any efforts to remove
its troops in the region and replace them with international
peacekeepers. Russia has also rebuffed any plans to settle the
conflict, other than its own plan to form a federation, on equal
footing, between Moldova and Transnistria.
Moscow has also given the breakaway region hundreds of millions of
roubles in financial aid, but, curiously, insists that the bill for
all the gas shipped to Transnistria - where consumption outweighs
that in the rest of Moldova - be footed by authorities in Chisinau.
Moldova is entirely dependent on Russian gas supply. On September 3,
Russian deputy prime minister Dmitry Rogozin, who is also the Russian
envoy to the region, said during a visit to Chisinau that "energy
is important, especially to stop the cold; I hope you won't freeze
in winter."
At the same time, a senior official at Russia's consumer watchdog
Rospotrebnadzor, Kremlin's weapon of choice in blocking foreign
imports (such as Moldovan wine in 2006, or anything from Georgia until
recenty), raised the prospect of a new ban on Moldovan products -
prompting Bildt to tweet "Threatening a small nation to cut off gas
and to block exports - is this Europe 2013?"
Trade war
Most recently, Rospotrebnadzor banned, in August, all confectionery
made by Ukrainian firm Roshen, claiming it contained carcinogens.
Similar checks carried out in several other countries reportedly
found no problems.
Chocolate is not the only Ukrainian products not welcome on the
Russian market - Russia recently scrapped the quota for Ukrainian
steel pipes. Furthermore, some Ukrainian companies have complained
in recent weeks about harassment by Russian customs officials.
Most recently, Russian authorities plan to bill Ukraine for all the
taxes Ukraine has collected from goods delivered to Russia's Black
Sea fleet, stationed under a long-term lease on Ukrainian territory,
Russian daily Nezavisimaya Gazeta reported on September 4. Russia
estimates the figure at an annual $10 million to $15 million.
(A dispute there could end costing Russia more than Ukraine, since
Moscow pays only $98 million a year to lease the fleet's base, built
during the Soviet times - Ukrainian opposition parties have long
been demanding a review of the leasing agreement, which currently
runs until 2042.)
Separately, Moscow is demanding $7 billion from Ukraine under the
terms of the long-term gas contract Kyiv has with Gazprom, claiming
that Ukraine has failed to buy the amounts stipulated under the
"take-or-pay" clause of the contract - as part of its efforts to
convince Ukraine to turn over its gas grid to Gazprom.
Negotiations with Russia on a "bilateral consortium" to manage the gas
grid - relinquishing control to Gazprom in all but name - reportedly
came close to being finalised earlier this year, but the legislative
amendments that would have allowed the privatisation to go ahead were
never tabled. Since then, Moscow has stepped up its rhetoric against
Kyiv, hinting at a possible repeat of gas disruptions like the ones
in 2006 and 2009.
Ukraine is one of the two largest former Soviet republics - Kazakhstan
has long been on board with Moscow's initiatives and is a founding
member of the Customs Union - and would represent a coup for the
Kremlin both politically and economically, especially given that
Ukraine trades as much with the EU as it does with Russia.
Ironically, the presidency of Viktor Yanukovich, elected on the ticket
of the pro-Russian Party of Regions, has not brought quite the results
that Moscow expected when he took office in 2010.
http://sofiaglobe.com/2013/09/05/russia-piles-pressure-on-former-soviet-satellites-to-drop-eu-aspirations/
The Sofia Globe, Bulgaria
Sept 5 2013
Written by Alex Bivol
As the Vilnius summit of EU's Eastern Partnership draws nearer, at
which several former Soviet states are expected to sign association
agreements with the EU, Russia appears to have stepped up efforts to
pull those same former Soviet states closer and into its own Customs
Union, with mixed results.
On the surface, it appears to be a simple choice between which free
trade agreement would offer those countries a better economic incentive
- but where the EU can wield the carrot of foreign aid, Russia leans
on the stick of threatening to withhold energy resources (and, unlike
the EU, could not care less about asking for lasting reforms).
In the long run, Russian president Vladimir Putin sees the Customs
Union as the building block of the Eurasian Economic Union - outlining
its key institutions in an article he penned for Russia's newspaper
of record, Izvestia, in October 2011.
Despite pointing out in that piece that that the new entity was not
meant to hijack the EU aspirations of former Soviet republics, it has
become clear that at the very least the Eurasian Union is meant as
a counterweight to the EU, but also a way to bring the former Soviet
states closer into Russia's orbit in a way that the Commonwealth of
Independent States (which former out of the ashes of the Soviet Union
in December 1991) never quite managed.
One of the four countries expected to initial an association and
free trade agreement with the EU at the Eastern Partnership summit
in Vilnius in November, Armenia, has now given in to Russian wooing,
announcing that it would join the Moscow-led Customs Union.
Given the government change in Georgia, which has lead to the thawing
of relations with Russia, Tbilisi could be expected to follow suit.
Indeed, pro-Russian prime minister Bidzina Ivanishvili said on
September 4 that his government was "studying" the customs union issue,
although that statement was later clarified to mean that membership
was not an option, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported.
But in Moldova, Russia's efforts have been unsuccessful so far,
prompting a deputy Russian prime minister to make not-so-subtle threats
that the country could find itself freezing come winter. And the big
prize, Ukraine, appears also out of the Kremlin's grasp.
Abrupt announcement
Armenian president Serzh Sargsyan's announcement on September 3,
following talks with Putin in Moscow, appeared to take the EU by
surprise.
"We look forward to understanding better from Armenia what their
intentions are and how they wish to ensure compatibility between these
and the commitments undertaken through the Association Agreement and
the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area," the European Commission
said in a statement. "Once this consultation has been completed,
we will draw our conclusions on the way forward."
The bafflement was best summed up by Swedish foreign minister Carl
Bildt, a frequent visitor to Eastern Partnership countries in recent
years, who tweeted: "Armenia negotiated 4 years to get Association
Agreement with EU. Now President prefers Kremlin to Brussels."
It appears security concerns - Armenia still has an unsolved dispute
over Nagorno-Karabakh with Azerbaijan - might have played the decisive
role in Sargsyan's decision, according interpretations by some EU
politicians, like British MEP Charles Tannock, who told the BBC
on September 5 that concern about Russian arms sales to Azerbaijan
appeared to have influenced Sargsyan more than any other issue.
Sargsyan's own statement at the joint news conference with Putin could
certainly be interpreted to lend credence to such claims. "Twenty
years ago, Armenia in cooperation with Russia and other CIS countries
established its military security structure in the format of the
Collective Security Treaty Organization. Through these decades,
the structure proved its viability and efficiency," he said.
"Currently, our CSTO partners are forming a new platform for economic
cooperation. I have said on many occasions that participating in one
military security structure makes it unfeasible and inefficient to
stay away from the relevant geo-economic area."
Under pressure
Moldova is home to the other major "frozen conflict" dating back
to the immediate aftermath of the Soviet Union's dissolution, with
the de-facto independent (albeit unrecognised by the international
community) breakaway region of Transnistria, or Pridnestrovie, as
its Moscow-backed government calls it.
Over the past two decades, Moscow has opposed any efforts to remove
its troops in the region and replace them with international
peacekeepers. Russia has also rebuffed any plans to settle the
conflict, other than its own plan to form a federation, on equal
footing, between Moldova and Transnistria.
Moscow has also given the breakaway region hundreds of millions of
roubles in financial aid, but, curiously, insists that the bill for
all the gas shipped to Transnistria - where consumption outweighs
that in the rest of Moldova - be footed by authorities in Chisinau.
Moldova is entirely dependent on Russian gas supply. On September 3,
Russian deputy prime minister Dmitry Rogozin, who is also the Russian
envoy to the region, said during a visit to Chisinau that "energy
is important, especially to stop the cold; I hope you won't freeze
in winter."
At the same time, a senior official at Russia's consumer watchdog
Rospotrebnadzor, Kremlin's weapon of choice in blocking foreign
imports (such as Moldovan wine in 2006, or anything from Georgia until
recenty), raised the prospect of a new ban on Moldovan products -
prompting Bildt to tweet "Threatening a small nation to cut off gas
and to block exports - is this Europe 2013?"
Trade war
Most recently, Rospotrebnadzor banned, in August, all confectionery
made by Ukrainian firm Roshen, claiming it contained carcinogens.
Similar checks carried out in several other countries reportedly
found no problems.
Chocolate is not the only Ukrainian products not welcome on the
Russian market - Russia recently scrapped the quota for Ukrainian
steel pipes. Furthermore, some Ukrainian companies have complained
in recent weeks about harassment by Russian customs officials.
Most recently, Russian authorities plan to bill Ukraine for all the
taxes Ukraine has collected from goods delivered to Russia's Black
Sea fleet, stationed under a long-term lease on Ukrainian territory,
Russian daily Nezavisimaya Gazeta reported on September 4. Russia
estimates the figure at an annual $10 million to $15 million.
(A dispute there could end costing Russia more than Ukraine, since
Moscow pays only $98 million a year to lease the fleet's base, built
during the Soviet times - Ukrainian opposition parties have long
been demanding a review of the leasing agreement, which currently
runs until 2042.)
Separately, Moscow is demanding $7 billion from Ukraine under the
terms of the long-term gas contract Kyiv has with Gazprom, claiming
that Ukraine has failed to buy the amounts stipulated under the
"take-or-pay" clause of the contract - as part of its efforts to
convince Ukraine to turn over its gas grid to Gazprom.
Negotiations with Russia on a "bilateral consortium" to manage the gas
grid - relinquishing control to Gazprom in all but name - reportedly
came close to being finalised earlier this year, but the legislative
amendments that would have allowed the privatisation to go ahead were
never tabled. Since then, Moscow has stepped up its rhetoric against
Kyiv, hinting at a possible repeat of gas disruptions like the ones
in 2006 and 2009.
Ukraine is one of the two largest former Soviet republics - Kazakhstan
has long been on board with Moscow's initiatives and is a founding
member of the Customs Union - and would represent a coup for the
Kremlin both politically and economically, especially given that
Ukraine trades as much with the EU as it does with Russia.
Ironically, the presidency of Viktor Yanukovich, elected on the ticket
of the pro-Russian Party of Regions, has not brought quite the results
that Moscow expected when he took office in 2010.
http://sofiaglobe.com/2013/09/05/russia-piles-pressure-on-former-soviet-satellites-to-drop-eu-aspirations/