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CUSTOMS UNION OVERVIEW: WHAT ARE THE RISKS/REWARDS FOR ARMENIA?
http://armenianow.com/society/48240/customs_union_european_union_bagrat_asatryan
SOCIETY | 05.09.13 | 19:04
Photolure
By GAYANE MKRTCHYAN
ArmeniaNow reporter
Joining the Customs Union puts Armenia in deeper dependence from
"the Russian Empire", while the common economic zone, experts say,
is a veil for Moscow to solve its own, mostly political, issues.
Former head of the Central Bank of Armenia Bagrat Asatryan says
Armenia's membership in the Customs Union (CU) is by 90 percent a
political issue, and only 10 percent economic, which will have a
heavy impact on Armenia's economy.
"It is obvious that Putin simply said: 'no more goofing around,
you must sign it'. Now, let's put aside the issue whether he [Serzh
Sargsyan] is a good or a bad president, this [joining the Customs
Union] is a crucial issue for our country, so I want to raise
questions: what steps will be taken, what will be the process, what
volume, what tasks and objectives? It is like opening a window and
stepping into fog, not even knowing whether there is ground under
your feet, or whether there is a bridge, or you are just walking on
the air, in total obscurity," Asatryan told ArmeniaNow.
Besides this obscurity, he says, Armenia is not ready to enter such
a framework, as it has no common borders with any of the CU member
countries, however, he does not rule out "healthy discussions" to
make it somewhat reasonable.
"If Russia guarantees that this is the price for the Abkhazian
railway, after somehow working through its issues with Georgia, then
the situation would alter significantly and the membership in the CU
would be an issue of sensible discussions. The next major, tough, issue
is whether we are entering CU with or without Karabakh. If without,
wouldn't it mean that we are giving up Karabakh? And if Russians have
promised that they are solving this global issue, then, excuse me,
but I am all for it," says the economist.
Does joining CU mean that Armenia would later find itself part of
common Ruble zone? Governance expert Harutyun Mesrobyan says it would
bring along more risks.
"In Europe many countries gave up their national monetary units,
and that's when the crisis started. None of the countries, among
them Greece, Portugal, Spain, had their separate levers - their own
monetary unit, which are tools to resist and fight economic crisis,"
he told ArmeniaNow.
Meanwhile, Asatryan believes being in a bigger monetary zone can
be favorable for small economic entities, it is a new quality of
development, and the emotional aspect of the issue, typical of small
nations, should be put side.
"The issue here is different. We want to enter a single zone, whom do
we want to live with, the poor or the rich? Naturally, the rich. But
Russia is yet an unviable economic entity, up until now it remains
an empire, and all empires collapse one day. Some two decades ago
it was the Soviet Union and it collapsed; who can claim that those
processes won't recur in Russia?" he questions.
CU membership implies that Armenia loses its free trade agreements.
Earlier in his interview to ArmNews TV, deputy foreign minister
Shavarsh Kocharyan said that joining CU means "losing sovereignty".
"We have a free trade agreement with Georgia, and in this case Georgia
would have to sign an agreement with the union's over-national body,"
he said.
Armenia is approaching the end of its double game.
"You cannot adopt one principle with the Customs Union and another
with the rest of the world, you are no longer independent in that view,
you commit to adhere to a single policy," says Asatryan.
By Customs Union many understand return to former Soviet Union. While,
Asatryan says, it is more about politics, consolidated by economic
means, the source of which is the international prices for energy
carriers.
"And if prices for oil happen to drop by 50 percent? If the oil sector
is extracted, Russia's economy equals that of Turkey. This Customs
Union is temporary, I assure you, because Russia has set a rather
big political objective - a common economic zone, but has neither
financial nor political resources for it," says Asatryan.
By joining CU Armenia won't lose the European market, but will be
deprived of development opportunities. Asatryan says the road to
Europe had numerous challenges, too, but at least "we knew where we
were going".
"And what are Russia's political values? Corruption. And, if for
nothing else, getting rid of that component by itself would have
been worth it. Russia is by far not the developed, viable entity
to become full partners with," he says. "We have brought this upon
ourselves by our terribly distorted regime, disgraceful elections,
weak authorities, and a state that has no values. The thing is that
one has to be a factor, and today we are Russia's outpost, and when
you are small, but still a factor, you are reckoned with."
Thomas de Waal, senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment,
specializing primarily in the South Caucasus region, writes in
his article posted in the Carnegie Moscow Center's website: "Some
in the Armenian government complain that the EU did not give them
room for maneuver, and it is true that the Brussels bureaucracy is
a clunky machine that does not do diplomacy well. But you can also
see this as a car crash in slow motion over several years. Both the
administration of Sargsyan, and Robert Kocharyan before him, embraced
a Russian take-over of the economy, which left them political control
and did not expose them to European-style competition. As Sargsyan
began (tentatively) to have second thoughts about this bargain,
he found himself badly short of options."
(http://carnegie.ru/eurasiaoutlook/?fa=52841)
http://armenianow.com/society/48240/customs_union_european_union_bagrat_asatryan
SOCIETY | 05.09.13 | 19:04
Photolure
By GAYANE MKRTCHYAN
ArmeniaNow reporter
Joining the Customs Union puts Armenia in deeper dependence from
"the Russian Empire", while the common economic zone, experts say,
is a veil for Moscow to solve its own, mostly political, issues.
Former head of the Central Bank of Armenia Bagrat Asatryan says
Armenia's membership in the Customs Union (CU) is by 90 percent a
political issue, and only 10 percent economic, which will have a
heavy impact on Armenia's economy.
"It is obvious that Putin simply said: 'no more goofing around,
you must sign it'. Now, let's put aside the issue whether he [Serzh
Sargsyan] is a good or a bad president, this [joining the Customs
Union] is a crucial issue for our country, so I want to raise
questions: what steps will be taken, what will be the process, what
volume, what tasks and objectives? It is like opening a window and
stepping into fog, not even knowing whether there is ground under
your feet, or whether there is a bridge, or you are just walking on
the air, in total obscurity," Asatryan told ArmeniaNow.
Besides this obscurity, he says, Armenia is not ready to enter such
a framework, as it has no common borders with any of the CU member
countries, however, he does not rule out "healthy discussions" to
make it somewhat reasonable.
"If Russia guarantees that this is the price for the Abkhazian
railway, after somehow working through its issues with Georgia, then
the situation would alter significantly and the membership in the CU
would be an issue of sensible discussions. The next major, tough, issue
is whether we are entering CU with or without Karabakh. If without,
wouldn't it mean that we are giving up Karabakh? And if Russians have
promised that they are solving this global issue, then, excuse me,
but I am all for it," says the economist.
Does joining CU mean that Armenia would later find itself part of
common Ruble zone? Governance expert Harutyun Mesrobyan says it would
bring along more risks.
"In Europe many countries gave up their national monetary units,
and that's when the crisis started. None of the countries, among
them Greece, Portugal, Spain, had their separate levers - their own
monetary unit, which are tools to resist and fight economic crisis,"
he told ArmeniaNow.
Meanwhile, Asatryan believes being in a bigger monetary zone can
be favorable for small economic entities, it is a new quality of
development, and the emotional aspect of the issue, typical of small
nations, should be put side.
"The issue here is different. We want to enter a single zone, whom do
we want to live with, the poor or the rich? Naturally, the rich. But
Russia is yet an unviable economic entity, up until now it remains
an empire, and all empires collapse one day. Some two decades ago
it was the Soviet Union and it collapsed; who can claim that those
processes won't recur in Russia?" he questions.
CU membership implies that Armenia loses its free trade agreements.
Earlier in his interview to ArmNews TV, deputy foreign minister
Shavarsh Kocharyan said that joining CU means "losing sovereignty".
"We have a free trade agreement with Georgia, and in this case Georgia
would have to sign an agreement with the union's over-national body,"
he said.
Armenia is approaching the end of its double game.
"You cannot adopt one principle with the Customs Union and another
with the rest of the world, you are no longer independent in that view,
you commit to adhere to a single policy," says Asatryan.
By Customs Union many understand return to former Soviet Union. While,
Asatryan says, it is more about politics, consolidated by economic
means, the source of which is the international prices for energy
carriers.
"And if prices for oil happen to drop by 50 percent? If the oil sector
is extracted, Russia's economy equals that of Turkey. This Customs
Union is temporary, I assure you, because Russia has set a rather
big political objective - a common economic zone, but has neither
financial nor political resources for it," says Asatryan.
By joining CU Armenia won't lose the European market, but will be
deprived of development opportunities. Asatryan says the road to
Europe had numerous challenges, too, but at least "we knew where we
were going".
"And what are Russia's political values? Corruption. And, if for
nothing else, getting rid of that component by itself would have
been worth it. Russia is by far not the developed, viable entity
to become full partners with," he says. "We have brought this upon
ourselves by our terribly distorted regime, disgraceful elections,
weak authorities, and a state that has no values. The thing is that
one has to be a factor, and today we are Russia's outpost, and when
you are small, but still a factor, you are reckoned with."
Thomas de Waal, senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment,
specializing primarily in the South Caucasus region, writes in
his article posted in the Carnegie Moscow Center's website: "Some
in the Armenian government complain that the EU did not give them
room for maneuver, and it is true that the Brussels bureaucracy is
a clunky machine that does not do diplomacy well. But you can also
see this as a car crash in slow motion over several years. Both the
administration of Sargsyan, and Robert Kocharyan before him, embraced
a Russian take-over of the economy, which left them political control
and did not expose them to European-style competition. As Sargsyan
began (tentatively) to have second thoughts about this bargain,
he found himself badly short of options."
(http://carnegie.ru/eurasiaoutlook/?fa=52841)