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BOTH RUSSIA AND EUROPE OPPOSE ARMENIAN MIXED DESIRES
Vestnik Kavkaza, Russia
Sept 6 2013
6 September 2013 - 9:11am
David Stepanyan, Yerevan. Exclusively to Vestnik Kavkaza
Armenian leader Serge Sargsyan's statement on Armenia's intention to
join the Moscow-dominated Customs Union and take part in establishing
the Eurasian Economic Union came as a bombshell in Europe; even though
it was clear before September 3rd that Yerevan cannot ignore Moscow's
interests in the question of integration with the EU.
In November, Vilnius hosts the summit of the EU leadership and heads
of the countries which participate in the Eastern Partnership Program.
It is expected that the association agreements and agreements on deep
and comprehensive free trade area will be initialed with Ukraine,
Moldova, Georgia, and Armenia. Yerevan has many times stated that
in relations with the EU and with Russia it relies on the principle
"both", rather than "either-or". However, as "both" faced resistance
both in Russia and Europe, Yerevan had to change its rhetoric. The
result of it was the statement by Sargsyan.
On September 4th a crowd of protesters against Armenia joining the
Customs Union gathered near the presidential palace. Participants of
the demonstration, organized through Facebook, chanted "No return to
the USSR" and stated that they wouldn't let Armenia join the CU, as
it would lead to the loss of independence. There was a brawl between
the policemen and protesters. 9 people were arrested. The Secretary
General of Heritage, Stepan Safaryan, said that the intention to join
the CU was unacceptable due to Armenia's commitments to Europe. The
common dissatisfaction of the opposition layers of the society was
summed up by the MP from the ANC, the former prime minister Grant
Bagratyan. He said that the problem of membership of Armenia in the CU
and signing the association agreement should be solved by a referendum,
rather than by one person.
Later that day the head of the presidential administration Vigen
Sarkisyan stated that Armenia had no plans to reject initialing of
the association agreement with the EU. The politician stressed that
Yerevan's decision to join the CU didn't mean breaking the political
dialogue with the EU. Sarkisyan also disproved the views that the
Eurasian integration of Armenia was a result of Moscow's pressure
on Yerevan.
The head of the political studies department of the institute
"Kavkaz", Sergey Minasyan, explained Yerevan's readiness to join
the CU by political reasons. He thinks that Yerevan will continue
its European integration, but without commodities and political and
financial support from the EU. According to the expert, Armenia has
taken a time-out in initialing of the association and DCFTA agreements,
as chances for the initialing in Vilnius are small.
However, the documents will wait for a right moment.
The crucial factor in relations between Russia and Armenia is still
security. No Armenian presidents can ignore this factor. From this
point of view economy plays a second role. Sustaining losses in the
security sphere, Armenia can appear in the situation of zugzwang. Some
forces in Yerevan state that Armenia's security which is provided today
by CSTO/Russia could be provided by NATO someday. However, Armenia has
no time to wait due to well-known circumstances. If Yerevan rejects
integration with the CU, Armenia will get cool relations with Moscow in
the military technical cooperation. Security determines "the red line"
which Yerevan cannot cross. At the same time, if Yerevan refuses from
the association with EU, it won't speed up its membership in the CU.
We can assume that President Sargsyan tries to gain time again. There
are too many questions to him both in Armenia and the West. And they
need answers right now because little time remains before the summit
of the Eastern Partnership. It seems Sargsyan's statements won't lead
to a radical change of the course of Armenia and his own party.
However, the main goal was reached - Russia wouldn't change its policy
toward Armenia. Moscow again pretends that it believes Yerevan.
Whether Brussels is going to pretend as well will be clear in a month
or two. At the moment, the EU leadership states that unfortunately,
Armenia's joining the CU doesn't require further participation of
Armenia in the association and DCFTA agreements with the EU.
http://vestnikkavkaza.net/analysis/politics/44786.html
Vestnik Kavkaza, Russia
Sept 6 2013
6 September 2013 - 9:11am
David Stepanyan, Yerevan. Exclusively to Vestnik Kavkaza
Armenian leader Serge Sargsyan's statement on Armenia's intention to
join the Moscow-dominated Customs Union and take part in establishing
the Eurasian Economic Union came as a bombshell in Europe; even though
it was clear before September 3rd that Yerevan cannot ignore Moscow's
interests in the question of integration with the EU.
In November, Vilnius hosts the summit of the EU leadership and heads
of the countries which participate in the Eastern Partnership Program.
It is expected that the association agreements and agreements on deep
and comprehensive free trade area will be initialed with Ukraine,
Moldova, Georgia, and Armenia. Yerevan has many times stated that
in relations with the EU and with Russia it relies on the principle
"both", rather than "either-or". However, as "both" faced resistance
both in Russia and Europe, Yerevan had to change its rhetoric. The
result of it was the statement by Sargsyan.
On September 4th a crowd of protesters against Armenia joining the
Customs Union gathered near the presidential palace. Participants of
the demonstration, organized through Facebook, chanted "No return to
the USSR" and stated that they wouldn't let Armenia join the CU, as
it would lead to the loss of independence. There was a brawl between
the policemen and protesters. 9 people were arrested. The Secretary
General of Heritage, Stepan Safaryan, said that the intention to join
the CU was unacceptable due to Armenia's commitments to Europe. The
common dissatisfaction of the opposition layers of the society was
summed up by the MP from the ANC, the former prime minister Grant
Bagratyan. He said that the problem of membership of Armenia in the CU
and signing the association agreement should be solved by a referendum,
rather than by one person.
Later that day the head of the presidential administration Vigen
Sarkisyan stated that Armenia had no plans to reject initialing of
the association agreement with the EU. The politician stressed that
Yerevan's decision to join the CU didn't mean breaking the political
dialogue with the EU. Sarkisyan also disproved the views that the
Eurasian integration of Armenia was a result of Moscow's pressure
on Yerevan.
The head of the political studies department of the institute
"Kavkaz", Sergey Minasyan, explained Yerevan's readiness to join
the CU by political reasons. He thinks that Yerevan will continue
its European integration, but without commodities and political and
financial support from the EU. According to the expert, Armenia has
taken a time-out in initialing of the association and DCFTA agreements,
as chances for the initialing in Vilnius are small.
However, the documents will wait for a right moment.
The crucial factor in relations between Russia and Armenia is still
security. No Armenian presidents can ignore this factor. From this
point of view economy plays a second role. Sustaining losses in the
security sphere, Armenia can appear in the situation of zugzwang. Some
forces in Yerevan state that Armenia's security which is provided today
by CSTO/Russia could be provided by NATO someday. However, Armenia has
no time to wait due to well-known circumstances. If Yerevan rejects
integration with the CU, Armenia will get cool relations with Moscow in
the military technical cooperation. Security determines "the red line"
which Yerevan cannot cross. At the same time, if Yerevan refuses from
the association with EU, it won't speed up its membership in the CU.
We can assume that President Sargsyan tries to gain time again. There
are too many questions to him both in Armenia and the West. And they
need answers right now because little time remains before the summit
of the Eastern Partnership. It seems Sargsyan's statements won't lead
to a radical change of the course of Armenia and his own party.
However, the main goal was reached - Russia wouldn't change its policy
toward Armenia. Moscow again pretends that it believes Yerevan.
Whether Brussels is going to pretend as well will be clear in a month
or two. At the moment, the EU leadership states that unfortunately,
Armenia's joining the CU doesn't require further participation of
Armenia in the association and DCFTA agreements with the EU.
http://vestnikkavkaza.net/analysis/politics/44786.html