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KIRKILAS: EASTERN PARTNERSHIP DILEMMA - THE EU OR RUSSIA - DEMOCRACY OR AUTOCRACY?
LithuaniaTribune
Sept 10 2013
The Lithuania Tribune presents an analysis of the current situation
in the EU Eastern Partnership countries by Gediminas Kirkilas,
the Vice-Speaker of the Lithuanian's Seimas and the Chairman of the
European Affairs Committee.
The European Union's (EU) Eastern Partnership countries face dilemma
of choosing between getting closer to the EU or joining the Russia's
initiative of custom union and ultimately the Eurasian Union in
future. However, it is not only the choice between the two economic
integration projects, but also between democracy and authoritarian
path of political development.
Armenia, which very recently has demonstrated a decent democratic
promise, in the early September announced of its decision to join the
Russia's Customs Union that is being created together with Belarus
and Kazakhstan. For Europe, this is not happy news.
Lithuania has been providing democratic assistance to the post-soviet
countries and making efforts of bringing them closer to the EU.
Naturally, the first post-soviet Baltic country holding the EU
Presidency has hoped that the EU and Armenia's Association and
Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement would be initialled during the EU
Eastern Partnership Summit on 28-29 November in Vilnius.
Sitting on the two chairs, i.e., trying to integrate into the EU and
into the Eurasian Union is impossible, not for political, but primarily
economic reasons. If Armenia eventually joins the Russian project,
the country cannot sign the Free Trade Agreement with the EU, because
of different tariff requirements. This also means the closure of the
biggest market in the world and that Armenia's further co-operation
with and integration into the EU might lose momentum.
Moreover, Armenia's latter decision, if it stays so, might have
negative impact on the country's democracy, which is the 114th in the
Economist's democracy ranking for 2012, scoring 4.09 points out of 10.
With the leadership of Russia, ranking 122nd, Armenia inevitably
faces risks regarding its democratic future.
Finally, Armenia's choice has the inevitable implications for Ukraine,
Georgia and Moldova, as well as for the EU immediate policy towards
these three countries.
For Lithuania, given the country's European integration experience,
the Eastern Partnership has naturally become the No 1 priority of
its EU Presidency. Lithuania strongly holds on the position that
these countries should be helped to make the 'right' decision towards
Europe and given a credit of trust in advance, especially now, when
Armenia might be lost to Russia's geopolitical project. Demand or
"waiting and seeing" strategy is no longer feasible, if Europe does
not want to lose the other three.
The major battle is now for Ukraine (democracy ranking 80th). Georgia
and Moldova will likely follow the pattern afterwards. Therefore,
Lithuania hopes that during the Vilnius Summit of Eastern Partnership
the EU Association Agreement will be signed with Ukraine and the Free
Trade Agreements will be initialled with Georgia and Moldova.
Zbigniew Brzezinski in his famous book on Eastern Europe 'The Grand
Chessboard' states, that "with Ukraine Russia is an Empire, without
Ukraine - it's not. The politicians in Russia took it very literally
and doing everything in their power to keep Ukraine in their sphere
of influence".
With Ukraine Russia is an Empire, without Ukraine - it's not.
I strongly believe that signing the EU Association Agreement with
Ukraine will actually provide the EU with more effective instruments of
influence towards this country, especially regarding democratic reforms
and human rights. Within such a framework, Ukraine will be politically
assigned to the democratic path and united Europe, and, therefore,
become less susceptible to the non-democratic stimuli from outside.
Otherwise, like it was done in the case of NATO enlargement, postponing
Ukraine's Association Agreement with the EU might be understood
by the Ukrainian people and its democratic forces as a rejection,
or as the country's ban from Europe. The non-democratic powers, on
the other hand, might accept such gesture as an easy licence to move
towards the consolidation of a non-democratic regime.
This year is a turning point for Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova, meaning,
that making a delay now might turn into the continuing delay.
This year is a turning point for Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova, meaning,
that making a delay now might turn into the continuing delay.
If the Eurasian Union project expands, it can create the new and
long-term divisions in international politics as well as the renewed
rivalry between democracy and dictatorship in the world more than 20
years after the proclaimed victory of democracy in Eastern Europe.
The ball to throw is today being held not only by Ukraine, Georgia
and Moldova, but also by the EU.
Moldova (ranking 67th) has more recently made so far the biggest
progress towards its integration into the EU. Let's just hope it will
stay on the right track.
Georgia (ranking 93rd),together with Ukraine, mostly thanks to foreign
policy of the Lithuanian President Mr Adamkus, 1998-2003 and 2004-2009,
has been the Lithuania's favourite in the Eastern Partnership. Despite
some recent doubts regarding Georgia's commitment to the rule of law,
I am confident that the entire democratic input delivered by the EU
and also the Lithuanian diplomatic forces cannot easily drain. I see
the current Georgian government as rational and thus understanding
the prestige and benefits of belonging to the democratic Europe.
Azerbaijan (ranking 139th) is more concerned with getting closer
to the EU economically rather than democratically or in the form
of membership. Europe needs to find a way to work closely with a
country's such as Azerbaijan to keep them on Europe's horizon.
However, Azerbaijan would need more than the successful Eurovision
performances to win Europe.
Azerbaijan would need more than the successful Eurovision performances
to win Europe.
Belarus (ranking 141st) remains the most complicated case due to the
President Lukashenka's overt authoritarian regime. Nevertheless, the
time is on our side, and Europe hopes that ultimately the Belarusian
society will be democratised and Europeanised through the democratic
assistance, the NGO development, democratic intellectuals or such
projects as the European Humanitarian University, which found its
exile home in Vilnius and where the future Belarusian political elite
is studying.
http://www.lithuaniatribune.com/50145/kirkilas-eastern-partnership-dilemma-the-eu-or-russia-democracy-or-autocracy-201350145/
LithuaniaTribune
Sept 10 2013
The Lithuania Tribune presents an analysis of the current situation
in the EU Eastern Partnership countries by Gediminas Kirkilas,
the Vice-Speaker of the Lithuanian's Seimas and the Chairman of the
European Affairs Committee.
The European Union's (EU) Eastern Partnership countries face dilemma
of choosing between getting closer to the EU or joining the Russia's
initiative of custom union and ultimately the Eurasian Union in
future. However, it is not only the choice between the two economic
integration projects, but also between democracy and authoritarian
path of political development.
Armenia, which very recently has demonstrated a decent democratic
promise, in the early September announced of its decision to join the
Russia's Customs Union that is being created together with Belarus
and Kazakhstan. For Europe, this is not happy news.
Lithuania has been providing democratic assistance to the post-soviet
countries and making efforts of bringing them closer to the EU.
Naturally, the first post-soviet Baltic country holding the EU
Presidency has hoped that the EU and Armenia's Association and
Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement would be initialled during the EU
Eastern Partnership Summit on 28-29 November in Vilnius.
Sitting on the two chairs, i.e., trying to integrate into the EU and
into the Eurasian Union is impossible, not for political, but primarily
economic reasons. If Armenia eventually joins the Russian project,
the country cannot sign the Free Trade Agreement with the EU, because
of different tariff requirements. This also means the closure of the
biggest market in the world and that Armenia's further co-operation
with and integration into the EU might lose momentum.
Moreover, Armenia's latter decision, if it stays so, might have
negative impact on the country's democracy, which is the 114th in the
Economist's democracy ranking for 2012, scoring 4.09 points out of 10.
With the leadership of Russia, ranking 122nd, Armenia inevitably
faces risks regarding its democratic future.
Finally, Armenia's choice has the inevitable implications for Ukraine,
Georgia and Moldova, as well as for the EU immediate policy towards
these three countries.
For Lithuania, given the country's European integration experience,
the Eastern Partnership has naturally become the No 1 priority of
its EU Presidency. Lithuania strongly holds on the position that
these countries should be helped to make the 'right' decision towards
Europe and given a credit of trust in advance, especially now, when
Armenia might be lost to Russia's geopolitical project. Demand or
"waiting and seeing" strategy is no longer feasible, if Europe does
not want to lose the other three.
The major battle is now for Ukraine (democracy ranking 80th). Georgia
and Moldova will likely follow the pattern afterwards. Therefore,
Lithuania hopes that during the Vilnius Summit of Eastern Partnership
the EU Association Agreement will be signed with Ukraine and the Free
Trade Agreements will be initialled with Georgia and Moldova.
Zbigniew Brzezinski in his famous book on Eastern Europe 'The Grand
Chessboard' states, that "with Ukraine Russia is an Empire, without
Ukraine - it's not. The politicians in Russia took it very literally
and doing everything in their power to keep Ukraine in their sphere
of influence".
With Ukraine Russia is an Empire, without Ukraine - it's not.
I strongly believe that signing the EU Association Agreement with
Ukraine will actually provide the EU with more effective instruments of
influence towards this country, especially regarding democratic reforms
and human rights. Within such a framework, Ukraine will be politically
assigned to the democratic path and united Europe, and, therefore,
become less susceptible to the non-democratic stimuli from outside.
Otherwise, like it was done in the case of NATO enlargement, postponing
Ukraine's Association Agreement with the EU might be understood
by the Ukrainian people and its democratic forces as a rejection,
or as the country's ban from Europe. The non-democratic powers, on
the other hand, might accept such gesture as an easy licence to move
towards the consolidation of a non-democratic regime.
This year is a turning point for Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova, meaning,
that making a delay now might turn into the continuing delay.
This year is a turning point for Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova, meaning,
that making a delay now might turn into the continuing delay.
If the Eurasian Union project expands, it can create the new and
long-term divisions in international politics as well as the renewed
rivalry between democracy and dictatorship in the world more than 20
years after the proclaimed victory of democracy in Eastern Europe.
The ball to throw is today being held not only by Ukraine, Georgia
and Moldova, but also by the EU.
Moldova (ranking 67th) has more recently made so far the biggest
progress towards its integration into the EU. Let's just hope it will
stay on the right track.
Georgia (ranking 93rd),together with Ukraine, mostly thanks to foreign
policy of the Lithuanian President Mr Adamkus, 1998-2003 and 2004-2009,
has been the Lithuania's favourite in the Eastern Partnership. Despite
some recent doubts regarding Georgia's commitment to the rule of law,
I am confident that the entire democratic input delivered by the EU
and also the Lithuanian diplomatic forces cannot easily drain. I see
the current Georgian government as rational and thus understanding
the prestige and benefits of belonging to the democratic Europe.
Azerbaijan (ranking 139th) is more concerned with getting closer
to the EU economically rather than democratically or in the form
of membership. Europe needs to find a way to work closely with a
country's such as Azerbaijan to keep them on Europe's horizon.
However, Azerbaijan would need more than the successful Eurovision
performances to win Europe.
Azerbaijan would need more than the successful Eurovision performances
to win Europe.
Belarus (ranking 141st) remains the most complicated case due to the
President Lukashenka's overt authoritarian regime. Nevertheless, the
time is on our side, and Europe hopes that ultimately the Belarusian
society will be democratised and Europeanised through the democratic
assistance, the NGO development, democratic intellectuals or such
projects as the European Humanitarian University, which found its
exile home in Vilnius and where the future Belarusian political elite
is studying.
http://www.lithuaniatribune.com/50145/kirkilas-eastern-partnership-dilemma-the-eu-or-russia-democracy-or-autocracy-201350145/