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Armenia's U-Turn - For Better Or Worse

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  • Armenia's U-Turn - For Better Or Worse

    ARMENIA'S U-TURN - FOR BETTER OR WORSE

    EDITORIAL | SEPTEMBER 10, 2013 4:02 PM
    ________________________________

    By Edmond Y. Azadian

    For the last three and a half years, Armenia had been negotiating
    with the European Union (EU) to sign the Association Agreement, yet on
    September 3, at the conclusion of the meeting between Presidents Serge
    Sargisian and Vladimir Putin in Moscow, Armenia's president announced
    that his country had decided to join the Customs Union with Russia.

    Polls in Armenia were indicating that 72 percent of the population
    preferred joining the EU, in anticipation of internal reforms bringing
    the country up to European norms, in terms of economic development,
    democratic processes and rule of law. But the president's announcement
    caught everyone by surprise, since there had been no debate in
    parliament, nor was a public referendum held.

    The negotiations of the EU Association Agreement (including a deep
    and comprehensive free-trade area) with Armenia were finalized in July.

    Upon learning about Armenia's U-turn, the European Commission issued
    a memo, stating, "This agreement would allow Armenia EU support, to
    drive forward a program of comprehensive modernization and reform based
    upon shared values, political association and economic integration."

    Although the European Union has not expressed forcefully its
    disappointment with Yerevan's decision, Western media has. The Wall
    Street Journal normally does not dwell much on what goes on in Armenia,
    but it published an article in its September 5 issue with the following
    headline: "Armenia Jilts Europe, Ties Trade Knot with Moscow."

    Commenting further, the Journal writes, "European diplomats were
    stunned this week by word that Armenia, which had been heading toward
    strengthening ties with the European Union, will instead join a
    Customs Union led by Russia - handing the Kremlin a victory in its
    tug of war with Brussels for influence in the region."

    The EU commission had limited its remarks to a wait-and-see position,
    announcing that it will wait for clarifications from Yerevan. One thing
    was clear - the two sides' agreements were mutually exclusive. A few
    apologists with the current administration had announced that Armenia's
    shift towards Russia would not take place at the expense of severing
    its ties with the EU. But the latter does not see the situation that
    way. European officials say that countries in the Moscow-led Customs
    Union cannot be integrated into the EU because they have effectively
    ceded their sovereignty over trade issues to Russia.

    In terms of its economic clout, Armenia does not weigh significantly on
    either side of the fence given the size of its gross domestic product
    - $10 billion. The issue hinges more on politics - the West has been
    trying to increase its influence in the region by luring Azerbaijan
    and Georgia, while Russia has been trying to develop a counter-weight
    through its economic associations, Therefore, Armenia's shift is
    symbolized as a political victory in this tug of war.

    Thus far, only Belarus and Kazakhstan have joined Russia's Customs
    Union because Belarus economically depends on Russia. As for
    Kazakhstan, its demographic balance tilts it towards Russia since the
    country's population is composed of 63 percent Kazakhs and 24 percent
    Russians. Moscow can easily manipulate that population to influence
    the country's orientation.

    Ukraine has joined the Customs Union as an observer member, after
    President Putin closed Russia's borders for a while against the
    Ukrainian imports.

    Georgia is sending mixed signs, after Moscow began importing Georgian
    wines and holding the carrot for more economic benefits. Prime
    Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili announced that Georgia will study the
    terms of the agreement and may join the Customs Union if it finds the
    terms beneficial. That remark was rebuked publicly by the lame-duck
    President Mikheil Saakashvili.

    Thus Armenia is firmly in Moscow's quarter because the EU officials
    believe Russia has exerted irresistible pressure on President
    Sargisian.

    It was very apparent at the outset, when President Putin visited Baku
    and Russia's $4-billion arms shipment to Azerbaijan coincided with
    that trip.

    Friendship with powerful countries does not yield much benefits,
    but absence of that friendship may cost them dearly.

    It is believed that Putin may have used two pressure points against
    Armenia: the Karabagh issue and the delivery of energy. No one
    believes that Russia will side with Armenia in resolving the Karabagh
    problem. But it can use it as leverage to extract concessions, like
    in the case of the Customs Union.

    No one knows yet what is in that agreement, except its political
    implications. One analyst has used the metaphor of a man stepping
    out of a window into the fog.

    The current administration and its supporters have been defending
    the president's decision, while others criticize it harshly. When
    Russia itself is in dire need of economic reform, how will that impact
    its partners?

    Former President Levon Ter-Petrosian, who refrains from making public
    commentaries since the last presidential election, has lambasted
    President Sargisian's handling of the issue, always mindful that
    Armenia should never antagonize Russia.

    Former Prime Minister Hrant Bagratian has called for a referendum
    on the agreement. The ARF has issue an unusually-mild statement,
    saying that the initiative was not wrong but was not handled properly.

    There is lively public debate in Armenia. One burning question is:
    How does Armenia join the Customs Union, with or without Karabagh? The
    answer to that question makes a whole world of difference. In the case
    of military treaty it has not been properly defined whether Russia will
    defend Armenia if attacked. But does the defense also cover Karabagh?

    There are many unanswered questions regarding Armenia's adherence to
    the Customs Union and Armenian-Russian relations in general.

    When the dust settles, people in Armenia will find out if the U-turn
    was for better or worse.

    - See more at:
    http://www.mirrorspectator.com/2013/09/10/armenias-u-turn-for-better-or-worse/#sthash.DqrHiX29.dpuf



    From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
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