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GUNFIRE AS EXTENSION OF POLITICS ON AZERI-ARMENIAN BORDER
Institute for War and Peace Reporting, UK
IWPR Caucasus Reporting #701
Sept 13 2013
Mutual recriminations as both sides note a rise in cross-border
shooting.
By Vahe Harutyunyan, Jasur Sumerinli - Caucasus
While cross-border gunfire involving Azerbaijani and Armenian force
is all too common, a recent sharp increase in incidents has left
analysts wondering what is going on.
The consensus is that the skirmishes are not a precursor to wider
hostilities. Instead, commentators on each side believe they are a
reflection of domestic political problems in the other country.
As an illustration of the rise in shooting incidents, Armenian defence
officials said that one soldier died and six were injured in August,
whereas there had been no casualties in July.
The incidents happened on Armenia's eastern border with Azerbaijan,
on its southeastern frontier with Nakhichevan - an Azerbaijani exclave
territory - and on the "line of control" around Nagorny Karabakh.
Armenian defence ministry spokesman Artsrun Hovhannisyan said the
nature of the "enemy action" was unusual.
"This isn't reconnaissance, nor is it designed to improve their
position, or to prepare for sweeping military operations," he said.
"The Azerbaijanis' aim is to inflict as much harm as possible on our
military personnel."
In Azerbaijan, officials said it was the Armenians who started or at
least provoked the shooting. The defence ministry said its monitoring
indicated that most of the gunfire was taking place around Karabakh
and on the border with Nakhichevan.
Defence ministry spokesman Eldar Sabiroglu said the Armenians were
trying to divert public attention from their government's own failings.
"We know that Armenia's domestic affairs are in bad shape. People
express their unhappiness with the authorities every day. In order
to mitigate this, they [authorities] try to project attention onto
Azerbaijan," he said. "This is always going to be a problem. Armenia's
aggressive policy has not changed, so there will continue to be
trouble on the front line."
Sabiroglu also spoke about a particular incident in early August, on
the border between Armenia and Nakhichevan. According to the Armenian
account, one soldier was killed and a second injured by Azerbaijani
sniper fire. But Sabiroglu described this as "an attempt by Armenia
to divert attention from problems inside its own army".
"They're trying to cover up the fact that there was a shootout between
Armenian soldiers, We have reliable information that several soldiers
died and several more were injured in a shootout in an Armenian
military unit deployed on the border with Nakhichevan," he said.
A mirror-image view of the situation was articulated in Yerevan.
Alexander Arzumanyan, a former foreign minister of Armenia, said the
clashes were being instigated by Azerbaijan, where the authorities are
keen to ensure the re-election of President Ilham Aliyev next month.
"The Azerbaijanis have resorted to deliberately escalating tensions
on the border ahead of general and presidential elections on more than
one occasion," he said. "It's the familiar policy of the Aliyev clan -
dictatorships always need an external enemy."
Arzumanyan pointed to the widening military imbalance between oil-rich
Azerbaijan and less affluent Armenia. Baku continues to purchase
high-tech weaponry, and President Aliyev and other officials often
warn that if talks on the future of Karabakh ultimately fail, the
army is capable of retaking it by force.
Armenian officials are clearly unsettled by this build-up, but hope
their longstanding alliance with Moscow will safeguard them. (See
Neighbourhood Watches as Azerbaijan Arms Up.)
Despite the threats coming out of Baku, Arzumanyan said, "the years
go by, and the Karabakh problem remains unresolved".
The Karabakh conflict ended in 1994 with a truce that has lasted ever
since, despite the sporadic outbreaks of gunfire. Talks intended to
produce a lasting settlement are mediated by the OSCE's Minsk Group,
chaired by Russia, the United States and France, but have failed to
make significant progress. The Karabakh Armenian administration says
it will never give up its claim to independence, while Baku insists
that the ultimate solution must involve regaining control over its
sovereign territory.
"There has been no substantive movement in the positions taken by
the parties to the conflict," Arzumanyan said. "Then again, Karabakh
isn't of such paramount importance to [external] states that it would
prompt serious pressure [for a solution] from outside."
Even with high levels of mutual mistrust and little apparent prospect
of progress in the OSCE-mediated talks, commentators in Yerevan and
Baku are not predicting that things will get out of hand.
"I do not think that the option of returning to war will be decided in
Baku alone, so I see it as unlikely that Azerbaijan would go down that
road," David Shahnazaryan, former head of Armenia's National Security
Service, told IWPR. "What I mean is that a number of states are active
in this region, and they are driven by they own interests and by the
fact that they have a political, military and economic presence -
there's Russia, the United States, Turkey, the European Union and
Iran. I wouldn't say any of these countries wants to unleash a war
in the South Caucasus."
Zumrud Mammadova, a researcher at the Simulated Forecasts think-tank
in Baku, agreed that none of the big players wanted conflict.
"Analysis of what's going on indicates that neither Armenia nor
Azerbaijan is preparing for war," she added. "Each side wants to
show its strength and insure itself against current and possible
international responses to its domestic problems. Armenia and
Azerbaijan are doing this to get round the international community's
demands for democracy."
Dashdemir Aliyev, a retired lieutenant-colonel in the Azerbaijani
army who now heads a veterans' group, agreed with this point.
"Armenia and Azerbaijan have identical interests in this respect. Both
want to show the international community that they face problems
that are a lot more important than democracy, and hence ward off
international pressure," he said.
On the Armenian side, Shahnazaryan predicted that the use of
small-scale warfare as a continuation of politics would continue.
"I believe tensions on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border will persist,
rising and falling on a regular basis," he said. "The situation that
now pertains will continue for a long time since no new initiatives
have emerged in the OSCE Minsk Group [talks] format."
Jasur Mammadov Sumerinli is a defence affairs reporter with the Zerkalo
newspaper in Azerbaijan. Vahe Harutyunyan is a freelance journalist
in Armenia.
http://iwpr.net/report-news/gunfire-extension-politics-azeri-armenian-border
Institute for War and Peace Reporting, UK
IWPR Caucasus Reporting #701
Sept 13 2013
Mutual recriminations as both sides note a rise in cross-border
shooting.
By Vahe Harutyunyan, Jasur Sumerinli - Caucasus
While cross-border gunfire involving Azerbaijani and Armenian force
is all too common, a recent sharp increase in incidents has left
analysts wondering what is going on.
The consensus is that the skirmishes are not a precursor to wider
hostilities. Instead, commentators on each side believe they are a
reflection of domestic political problems in the other country.
As an illustration of the rise in shooting incidents, Armenian defence
officials said that one soldier died and six were injured in August,
whereas there had been no casualties in July.
The incidents happened on Armenia's eastern border with Azerbaijan,
on its southeastern frontier with Nakhichevan - an Azerbaijani exclave
territory - and on the "line of control" around Nagorny Karabakh.
Armenian defence ministry spokesman Artsrun Hovhannisyan said the
nature of the "enemy action" was unusual.
"This isn't reconnaissance, nor is it designed to improve their
position, or to prepare for sweeping military operations," he said.
"The Azerbaijanis' aim is to inflict as much harm as possible on our
military personnel."
In Azerbaijan, officials said it was the Armenians who started or at
least provoked the shooting. The defence ministry said its monitoring
indicated that most of the gunfire was taking place around Karabakh
and on the border with Nakhichevan.
Defence ministry spokesman Eldar Sabiroglu said the Armenians were
trying to divert public attention from their government's own failings.
"We know that Armenia's domestic affairs are in bad shape. People
express their unhappiness with the authorities every day. In order
to mitigate this, they [authorities] try to project attention onto
Azerbaijan," he said. "This is always going to be a problem. Armenia's
aggressive policy has not changed, so there will continue to be
trouble on the front line."
Sabiroglu also spoke about a particular incident in early August, on
the border between Armenia and Nakhichevan. According to the Armenian
account, one soldier was killed and a second injured by Azerbaijani
sniper fire. But Sabiroglu described this as "an attempt by Armenia
to divert attention from problems inside its own army".
"They're trying to cover up the fact that there was a shootout between
Armenian soldiers, We have reliable information that several soldiers
died and several more were injured in a shootout in an Armenian
military unit deployed on the border with Nakhichevan," he said.
A mirror-image view of the situation was articulated in Yerevan.
Alexander Arzumanyan, a former foreign minister of Armenia, said the
clashes were being instigated by Azerbaijan, where the authorities are
keen to ensure the re-election of President Ilham Aliyev next month.
"The Azerbaijanis have resorted to deliberately escalating tensions
on the border ahead of general and presidential elections on more than
one occasion," he said. "It's the familiar policy of the Aliyev clan -
dictatorships always need an external enemy."
Arzumanyan pointed to the widening military imbalance between oil-rich
Azerbaijan and less affluent Armenia. Baku continues to purchase
high-tech weaponry, and President Aliyev and other officials often
warn that if talks on the future of Karabakh ultimately fail, the
army is capable of retaking it by force.
Armenian officials are clearly unsettled by this build-up, but hope
their longstanding alliance with Moscow will safeguard them. (See
Neighbourhood Watches as Azerbaijan Arms Up.)
Despite the threats coming out of Baku, Arzumanyan said, "the years
go by, and the Karabakh problem remains unresolved".
The Karabakh conflict ended in 1994 with a truce that has lasted ever
since, despite the sporadic outbreaks of gunfire. Talks intended to
produce a lasting settlement are mediated by the OSCE's Minsk Group,
chaired by Russia, the United States and France, but have failed to
make significant progress. The Karabakh Armenian administration says
it will never give up its claim to independence, while Baku insists
that the ultimate solution must involve regaining control over its
sovereign territory.
"There has been no substantive movement in the positions taken by
the parties to the conflict," Arzumanyan said. "Then again, Karabakh
isn't of such paramount importance to [external] states that it would
prompt serious pressure [for a solution] from outside."
Even with high levels of mutual mistrust and little apparent prospect
of progress in the OSCE-mediated talks, commentators in Yerevan and
Baku are not predicting that things will get out of hand.
"I do not think that the option of returning to war will be decided in
Baku alone, so I see it as unlikely that Azerbaijan would go down that
road," David Shahnazaryan, former head of Armenia's National Security
Service, told IWPR. "What I mean is that a number of states are active
in this region, and they are driven by they own interests and by the
fact that they have a political, military and economic presence -
there's Russia, the United States, Turkey, the European Union and
Iran. I wouldn't say any of these countries wants to unleash a war
in the South Caucasus."
Zumrud Mammadova, a researcher at the Simulated Forecasts think-tank
in Baku, agreed that none of the big players wanted conflict.
"Analysis of what's going on indicates that neither Armenia nor
Azerbaijan is preparing for war," she added. "Each side wants to
show its strength and insure itself against current and possible
international responses to its domestic problems. Armenia and
Azerbaijan are doing this to get round the international community's
demands for democracy."
Dashdemir Aliyev, a retired lieutenant-colonel in the Azerbaijani
army who now heads a veterans' group, agreed with this point.
"Armenia and Azerbaijan have identical interests in this respect. Both
want to show the international community that they face problems
that are a lot more important than democracy, and hence ward off
international pressure," he said.
On the Armenian side, Shahnazaryan predicted that the use of
small-scale warfare as a continuation of politics would continue.
"I believe tensions on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border will persist,
rising and falling on a regular basis," he said. "The situation that
now pertains will continue for a long time since no new initiatives
have emerged in the OSCE Minsk Group [talks] format."
Jasur Mammadov Sumerinli is a defence affairs reporter with the Zerkalo
newspaper in Azerbaijan. Vahe Harutyunyan is a freelance journalist
in Armenia.
http://iwpr.net/report-news/gunfire-extension-politics-azeri-armenian-border